NVDA Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 32 trades in period
+7.58%
Year to Date Return
$22,500.80
Current Value
59%
Win Rate
$20,914.46
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-9.7%
5d Trend
-7.1%
EMA20 Dist
-5.9%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
45
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
12.4/35
Total Return
17.4/25
Win Rate
8.7/15
Profit Factor
2.2/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
46.2/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 45.3
30-Day Momentum
70
+14.4%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
8
Trades
3.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 85.7
Conf: 0.81×
Accelerating (+24 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,600
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$20,914.46
Current Value
$22,500.80
Period P&L
$1,586.34
Max Drawdown
-35.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.10
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
32
Winners / Losers
19 /
13
Best Trade
+5.47%
Worst Trade
-3.49%
Avg Trade Return
+0.26%
Avg Hold Time
2.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,308,535.50
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,586.34
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,586.34
Gross Return
+7.58%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.58%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 NVDA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 32 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $20,914.46 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 29, 2025 9:50am ET | $186.53 | 112 | $20,890.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $191.12 | 112 | $21,405.44 | $21,430.78 |
+$514.64 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 9:45am ET | $189.76 | 112 | $21,253.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 12:30pm ET | $183.93 | 112 | $20,599.60 | $20,776.79 |
$-653.99 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 2:50pm ET | $185.61 | 111 | $20,603.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 2:50pm ET | $181.91 | 111 | $20,191.46 | $20,365.08 |
$-411.71 (-2.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 2:55pm ET | $188.68 | 107 | $20,188.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $182.09 | 107 | $19,483.63 | $19,659.95 |
$-705.13 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:30am ET | $182.30 | 107 | $19,506.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 11:45am ET | $185.98 | 107 | $19,899.86 | $20,053.70 |
+$393.75 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 12:15pm ET | $186.79 | 107 | $19,986.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $191.31 | 107 | $20,470.16 | $20,536.88 |
+$483.18 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:00am ET | $189.53 | 108 | $20,469.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 10:45am ET | $194.37 | 108 | $20,991.42 | $21,059.06 |
+$522.18 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 10:50am ET | $188.62 | 111 | $20,936.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:50am ET | $182.88 | 111 | $20,300.23 | $20,422.47 |
$-636.59 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:50am ET | $178.87 | 114 | $20,391.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 11:45am ET | $173.49 | 114 | $19,778.43 | $19,809.72 |
$-612.75 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 1:15pm ET | $174.58 | 113 | $19,727.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $178.31 | 113 | $20,149.04 | $20,231.22 |
+$421.50 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $190.88 | 105 | $20,042.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $189.54 | 105 | $19,901.70 | $20,090.52 |
$-140.70 (-0.7%) |
📅 Sim Ended
1.1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:30am ET | $180.32 | 111 | $20,015.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 11:15am ET | $184.16 | 111 | $20,441.76 | $20,516.76 |
+$426.24 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 11:15am ET | $189.83 | 108 | $20,501.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 11:15am ET | $190.06 | 108 | $20,526.48 | $20,541.60 |
+$24.84 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 1:30pm ET | $192.87 | 106 | $20,443.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 11:40am ET | $197.07 | 106 | $20,888.89 | $20,986.80 |
+$445.20 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.2h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 12:45pm ET | $186.62 | 112 | $20,901.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $180.32 | 112 | $20,195.84 | $20,281.21 |
$-705.59 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 12:00pm ET | $182.55 | 111 | $20,263.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 10:55am ET | $176.95 | 111 | $19,641.45 | $19,659.61 |
$-621.60 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.9h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 11:15am ET | $181.97 | 108 | $19,652.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $176.33 | 108 | $19,043.64 | $19,050.51 |
$-609.10 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 10:00am ET | $182.75 | 104 | $19,005.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 10:00am ET | $186.74 | 104 | $19,421.48 | $19,466.00 |
+$415.49 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 10:30am ET | $182.08 | 106 | $19,300.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 3:10pm ET | $188.33 | 106 | $19,962.66 | $20,128.18 |
+$662.18 (+3.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 3:10pm ET | $182.23 | 110 | $20,045.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:35am ET | $176.38 | 110 | $19,402.35 | $19,485.23 |
$-642.95 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 10:45am ET | $175.58 | 110 | $19,313.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:40am ET | $179.45 | 110 | $19,738.95 | $19,910.37 |
+$425.14 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:40am ET | $175.38 | 113 | $19,817.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $169.68 | 113 | $19,174.40 | $19,267.40 |
$-642.97 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:55am ET | $167.00 | 115 | $19,205.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 10:20am ET | $170.50 | 115 | $19,607.51 | $19,669.91 |
+$402.51 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 11:20am ET | $176.79 | 111 | $19,623.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 11:20am ET | $176.80 | 111 | $19,624.80 | $19,671.57 |
+$1.66 (+0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 12:15pm ET | $175.03 | 112 | $19,603.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $184.60 | 112 | $20,675.20 | $20,743.04 |
+$1,071.47 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $181.54 | 114 | $20,694.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $185.60 | 114 | $21,158.40 | $21,206.45 |
+$463.41 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:45am ET | $186.20 | 113 | $21,040.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $191.50 | 113 | $21,639.50 | $21,805.35 |
+$598.90 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 12:00pm ET | $199.54 | 109 | $21,750.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 12:00pm ET | $198.62 | 109 | $21,649.04 | $21,703.98 |
$-101.37 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 1:20pm ET | $199.02 | 109 | $21,693.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:50am ET | $203.66 | 109 | $22,198.94 | $22,209.20 |
+$505.22 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 11:25am ET | $208.31 | 106 | $22,080.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 12:35pm ET | $212.82 | 106 | $22,559.45 | $22,687.79 |
+$478.59 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 3:20pm ET | $213.51 | 106 | $22,632.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:45am ET | $206.49 | 106 | $21,888.47 | $21,944.20 |
$-743.59 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 10:30am ET | $199.03 | 110 | $21,893.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:55am ET | $204.09 | 110 | $22,449.90 | $22,500.80 |
+$556.60 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$22,500.80
Net Profit/Loss:
+$12,500.80
Total Return:
+125.01%