RBLX Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 47 trades in period
-40.00%
Year to Date Return
$13,729.87
Current Value
49%
Win Rate
$22,883.52
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-23.4%
5d Trend
-1.8%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
7.4%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
31
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
3.5/35
Total Return
12.9/25
Win Rate
8.2/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality
30.9/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 30.8
30-Day Momentum
13
-26.6%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
12
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 13.8
Conf: 0.93×
Declining (-18 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,349
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$22,883.52
Current Value
$13,729.87
Period P&L
$-9,153.60
Max Drawdown
-34.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.22
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
47
Winners / Losers
23 /
24
Best Trade
+4.00%
Worst Trade
-23.77%
Avg Trade Return
-0.99%
Avg Hold Time
1.2d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,937,183.22
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-9,153.60
Net P&L (after fees)
$-9,153.60
Gross Return
-40.00%
Net Return (after fees)
-40.00%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RBLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 47 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $22,883.52 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 10:35am ET | $81.54 | 283 | $23,075.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 10:10am ET | $79.02 | 283 | $22,362.66 | $22,405.22 |
$-713.16 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 10:30am ET | $80.11 | 279 | $22,350.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 11:25am ET | $81.82 | 279 | $22,826.75 | $22,881.27 |
+$476.06 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
54m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 11:50am ET | $76.41 | 299 | $22,846.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $73.92 | 299 | $22,100.59 | $22,135.27 |
$-746.00 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $72.88 | 303 | $22,082.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $75.70 | 303 | $22,936.34 | $22,988.97 |
+$853.70 (+3.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 12:10pm ET | $82.94 | 277 | $22,974.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 2:15pm ET | $84.63 | 277 | $23,441.13 | $23,455.72 |
+$466.75 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 3:45pm ET | $82.99 | 282 | $23,403.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 10:15am ET | $85.23 | 282 | $24,034.55 | $24,087.09 |
+$631.37 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.5h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 10:35am ET | $89.00 | 270 | $24,030.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 11:45am ET | $90.91 | 270 | $24,544.35 | $24,601.44 |
+$514.35 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 12:10pm ET | $80.74 | 304 | $24,544.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $77.26 | 304 | $23,487.04 | $23,543.52 |
$-1,057.92 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 9:45am ET | $75.15 | 313 | $23,520.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $72.38 | 313 | $22,654.94 | $22,678.07 |
$-865.45 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $72.70 | 311 | $22,609.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 9:50am ET | $74.80 | 311 | $23,262.80 | $23,331.17 |
+$653.10 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:00am ET | $72.63 | 321 | $23,314.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 11:25am ET | $74.34 | 321 | $23,863.14 | $23,880.05 |
+$548.88 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.4h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 11:30am ET | $67.86 | 351 | $23,818.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 1:35pm ET | $65.62 | 351 | $23,030.87 | $23,092.05 |
$-788.00 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 2:55pm ET | $67.98 | 339 | $23,045.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $65.32 | 339 | $22,144.33 | $22,191.16 |
$-900.89 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.6h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 10:55am ET | $64.25 | 345 | $22,166.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET | $62.17 | 345 | $21,448.65 | $21,473.56 |
$-717.60 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 1:05pm ET | $67.56 | 317 | $21,416.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $70.26 | 317 | $22,274.00 | $22,331.05 |
+$857.49 (+4.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $74.25 | 300 | $22,273.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $72.64 | 300 | $21,792.00 | $21,849.54 |
$-481.50 (-2.2%) |
📅 Sim Ended
2.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 12:20pm ET | $63.44 | 344 | $21,823.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 10:00am ET | $65.17 | 344 | $22,418.48 | $22,444.66 |
+$595.12 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.7h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 10:30am ET | $64.76 | 346 | $22,408.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $61.41 | 346 | $21,247.86 | $21,283.83 |
$-1,160.83 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 9:40am ET | $60.83 | 349 | $21,227.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 10:40am ET | $62.19 | 349 | $21,704.31 | $21,760.21 |
+$476.38 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 11:15am ET | $65.01 | 334 | $21,713.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 1:40pm ET | $66.44 | 334 | $22,192.63 | $22,239.50 |
+$479.29 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.4h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 2:05pm ET | $67.57 | 329 | $22,230.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $68.97 | 329 | $22,691.69 | $22,700.63 |
+$461.13 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.4h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $69.72 | 325 | $22,660.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $67.40 | 325 | $21,905.00 | $21,945.01 |
$-755.62 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 10:20am ET | $64.04 | 342 | $21,902.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 11:15am ET | $65.43 | 342 | $22,377.06 | $22,419.71 |
+$474.70 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
55m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 11:45am ET | $67.47 | 332 | $22,401.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $68.96 | 332 | $22,896.38 | $22,914.39 |
+$494.68 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.9h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:45am ET | $63.40 | 361 | $22,887.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 10:10am ET | $60.58 | 361 | $21,869.38 | $21,896.37 |
$-1,018.02 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 10:15am ET | $60.25 | 363 | $21,870.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 10:35am ET | $58.33 | 363 | $21,173.79 | $21,199.41 |
$-696.96 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 10:45am ET | $57.55 | 368 | $21,178.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 10:10am ET | $59.24 | 368 | $21,802.16 | $21,823.17 |
+$623.76 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 10:40am ET | $59.74 | 365 | $21,805.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 3:20pm ET | $57.89 | 365 | $21,130.21 | $21,148.28 |
$-674.89 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.7h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 3:25pm ET | $58.26 | 362 | $21,090.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 1:10pm ET | $56.46 | 362 | $20,438.52 | $20,496.68 |
$-651.60 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 2:10pm ET | $56.69 | 361 | $20,463.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:15am ET | $54.78 | 361 | $19,777.38 | $19,810.78 |
$-685.90 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 10:45am ET | $56.21 | 352 | $19,784.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 12:25pm ET | $54.28 | 352 | $19,106.70 | $19,133.32 |
$-677.46 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 12:25pm ET | $52.73 | 362 | $19,088.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 9:35am ET | $53.89 | 362 | $19,508.18 | $19,553.24 |
+$419.92 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 12:15pm ET | $58.28 | 335 | $19,525.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $56.47 | 335 | $18,917.79 | $18,945.55 |
$-607.69 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $59.25 | 319 | $18,900.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 10:35am ET | $57.26 | 319 | $18,264.35 | $18,309.15 |
$-636.40 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
55m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 11:00am ET | $56.22 | 325 | $18,271.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 1:45pm ET | $57.47 | 325 | $18,677.75 | $18,715.40 |
+$406.25 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 1:45pm ET | $56.71 | 330 | $18,714.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $54.63 | 330 | $18,027.90 | $18,029.00 |
$-686.40 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $54.57 | 330 | $18,008.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 10:00am ET | $52.92 | 330 | $17,461.95 | $17,482.85 |
$-546.15 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 1:55pm ET | $58.56 | 298 | $17,450.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $60.29 | 298 | $17,966.42 | $17,998.39 |
+$515.54 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 11:05am ET | $60.31 | 298 | $17,972.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 12:05pm ET | $61.79 | 298 | $18,413.42 | $18,439.43 |
+$441.04 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 12:20pm ET | $60.60 | 304 | $18,423.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 12:25pm ET | $61.87 | 304 | $18,808.48 | $18,823.99 |
+$384.56 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 1:15pm ET | $61.76 | 304 | $18,775.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 3:50pm ET | $59.85 | 304 | $18,195.92 | $18,244.87 |
$-579.12 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $53.84 | 338 | $18,197.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 1:45pm ET | $55.10 | 338 | $18,622.11 | $18,669.06 |
+$424.19 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.2h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 1:50pm ET | $57.51 | 324 | $18,633.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $54.53 | 324 | $17,669.34 | $17,705.16 |
$-963.90 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 9:55am ET | $55.78 | 317 | $17,682.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $42.52 | 317 | $13,478.84 | $13,501.74 |
$-4,203.42 (-23.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.6h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $45.03 | 299 | $13,462.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $46.23 | 299 | $13,822.77 | $13,862.03 |
+$360.29 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $45.87 | 302 | $13,851.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 2:20pm ET | $44.48 | 302 | $13,432.96 | $13,443.76 |
$-418.27 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.7h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 3:05pm ET | $43.81 | 306 | $13,407.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.75 | 306 | $13,693.50 | $13,729.87 |
+$286.11 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.4h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$13,729.87
Net Profit/Loss:
+$3,729.87
Total Return:
+37.30%