RIOT Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 53 trades in period
+7.94%
Year to Date Return
$5,544.46
Current Value
62%
Win Rate
$5,136.48
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
28.4 oversold
20d Trend
-31.1%
5d Trend
-24.1%
EMA20 Dist
-22.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
11
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality
11.3/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 11.2
30-Day Momentum
43
+8.6%
30d Return
62%
Win Rate
13
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 44.8
Conf: 0.95×
Accelerating (+31 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,968
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$5,136.48
Current Value
$5,544.46
Period P&L
$407.93
Max Drawdown
-55.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.06
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
53
Winners / Losers
33 /
20
Best Trade
+11.28%
Worst Trade
-6.35%
Avg Trade Return
+0.20%
Avg Hold Time
13.3h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$573,298.79
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$407.93
Net P&L (after fees)
$407.93
Gross Return
+7.94%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.94%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RIOT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 53 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $5,136.48 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 31, 2025 3:55pm ET | $12.65 | 407 | $5,146.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $12.99 | 407 | $5,286.93 | $5,291.20 |
+$140.42 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.7d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 10:10am ET | $14.53 | 364 | $5,288.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 3:00pm ET | $14.84 | 364 | $5,399.94 | $5,402.22 |
+$111.02 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 3:40pm ET | $14.94 | 361 | $5,393.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 10:50am ET | $15.26 | 361 | $5,507.06 | $5,515.94 |
+$113.72 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.2h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 1:05pm ET | $15.31 | 360 | $5,509.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 10:20am ET | $15.64 | 360 | $5,630.40 | $5,636.54 |
+$120.60 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 12:00pm ET | $15.51 | 363 | $5,630.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 2:15pm ET | $15.83 | 363 | $5,746.29 | $5,752.70 |
+$116.16 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 12:25pm ET | $17.62 | 326 | $5,744.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.78 | 326 | $5,470.28 | $5,478.86 |
$-273.84 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.1h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 2:15pm ET | $18.63 | 294 | $5,475.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 3:35pm ET | $19.06 | 294 | $5,603.64 | $5,606.75 |
+$127.89 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:05am ET | $18.20 | 308 | $5,605.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 11:40am ET | $17.54 | 308 | $5,402.60 | $5,403.74 |
$-203.00 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
36m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 1:50pm ET | $17.01 | 317 | $5,392.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 11:00am ET | $17.40 | 317 | $5,515.80 | $5,527.37 |
+$123.63 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.2h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 12:00pm ET | $16.58 | 333 | $5,519.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 11:05am ET | $16.97 | 333 | $5,651.01 | $5,658.91 |
+$131.54 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.1h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 11:15am ET | $17.64 | 320 | $5,643.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.98 | 320 | $5,433.60 | $5,449.31 |
$-209.60 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $16.31 | 334 | $5,447.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 10:00am ET | $15.78 | 334 | $5,268.85 | $5,270.72 |
$-178.59 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
24m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 10:30am ET | $15.31 | 344 | $5,266.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 2:25pm ET | $15.65 | 344 | $5,383.60 | $5,387.68 |
+$116.96 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 2:30pm ET | $14.94 | 360 | $5,378.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 3:35pm ET | $15.25 | 360 | $5,490.00 | $5,499.28 |
+$111.60 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 3:50pm ET | $14.06 | 391 | $5,495.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $13.59 | 391 | $5,313.69 | $5,317.46 |
$-181.82 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 10:50am ET | $13.76 | 386 | $5,309.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 11:10am ET | $14.07 | 386 | $5,431.06 | $5,438.59 |
+$121.13 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 12:15pm ET | $14.78 | 367 | $5,426.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $15.12 | 367 | $5,549.37 | $5,561.87 |
+$123.28 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 9:55am ET | $14.84 | 374 | $5,548.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 1:05pm ET | $14.32 | 374 | $5,355.23 | $5,368.81 |
$-193.06 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:50am ET | $14.44 | 371 | $5,359.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 11:10am ET | $14.75 | 371 | $5,470.84 | $5,480.56 |
+$111.75 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 12:45pm ET | $15.81 | 346 | $5,471.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 3:10pm ET | $15.31 | 346 | $5,298.99 | $5,307.56 |
$-173.00 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.4h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 10:15am ET | $16.59 | 319 | $5,292.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 12:15pm ET | $15.99 | 319 | $5,100.78 | $5,116.13 |
$-191.43 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 1:45pm ET | $15.57 | 328 | $5,108.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 9:50am ET | $16.16 | 328 | $5,300.91 | $5,308.44 |
+$192.31 (+3.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.1h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 10:05am ET | $16.89 | 314 | $5,301.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 2:35pm ET | $17.28 | 314 | $5,424.76 | $5,431.31 |
+$122.87 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.5h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 9:50am ET | $16.49 | 329 | $5,425.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 10:10am ET | $16.86 | 329 | $5,546.94 | $5,553.04 |
+$121.73 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 1:15pm ET | $16.24 | 341 | $5,539.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $15.36 | 341 | $5,237.76 | $5,251.70 |
$-301.34 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 1:05pm ET | $16.28 | 322 | $5,243.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 2:50pm ET | $16.65 | 322 | $5,359.69 | $5,367.62 |
+$115.92 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.70 | 365 | $5,365.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 10:50am ET | $14.26 | 365 | $5,203.08 | $5,205.16 |
$-162.46 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 10:55am ET | $13.93 | 373 | $5,194.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 12:45pm ET | $14.20 | 373 | $5,298.46 | $5,309.60 |
+$104.44 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:00pm ET | $14.84 | 357 | $5,296.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 10:15am ET | $15.21 | 357 | $5,430.79 | $5,444.29 |
+$134.70 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.3h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 10:25am ET | $14.01 | 388 | $5,435.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 11:50am ET | $14.33 | 388 | $5,560.04 | $5,568.45 |
+$124.16 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.4h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 12:00pm ET | $14.69 | 379 | $5,567.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 1:45pm ET | $14.20 | 379 | $5,381.80 | $5,382.74 |
$-185.71 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 2:35pm ET | $14.41 | 373 | $5,374.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 2:05pm ET | $14.73 | 373 | $5,494.29 | $5,502.10 |
+$119.36 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.5h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 2:55pm ET | $14.11 | 389 | $5,488.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $13.49 | 389 | $5,249.55 | $5,263.03 |
$-239.08 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.6h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $13.95 | 377 | $5,259.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 1:40pm ET | $13.53 | 377 | $5,100.81 | $5,104.69 |
$-158.34 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.19 | 359 | $5,094.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:00am ET | $14.55 | 359 | $5,221.66 | $5,232.14 |
+$127.45 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 10:50am ET | $14.86 | 351 | $5,217.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 3:55pm ET | $15.19 | 351 | $5,329.94 | $5,344.46 |
+$112.32 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.1h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 10:00am ET | $13.06 | 409 | $5,339.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:50am ET | $12.60 | 409 | $5,151.36 | $5,156.32 |
$-188.14 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 10:10am ET | $11.90 | 433 | $5,154.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 1:15pm ET | $12.31 | 433 | $5,330.23 | $5,331.69 |
+$175.37 (+3.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 1:30pm ET | $12.75 | 418 | $5,329.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.94 | 418 | $4,990.92 | $4,993.11 |
$-338.58 (-6.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $13.38 | 373 | $4,990.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 12:45pm ET | $13.68 | 373 | $5,100.78 | $5,103.56 |
+$110.45 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 1:00pm ET | $13.92 | 366 | $5,094.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.49 | 366 | $5,669.34 | $5,678.18 |
+$574.62 (+11.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.5h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:15am ET | $16.40 | 346 | $5,672.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 11:15am ET | $16.74 | 346 | $5,790.31 | $5,795.82 |
+$117.64 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 11:35am ET | $16.85 | 343 | $5,781.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.32 | 343 | $5,596.05 | $5,610.60 |
$-185.22 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 10:45am ET | $18.59 | 301 | $5,595.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.81 | 301 | $5,360.81 | $5,375.82 |
$-234.78 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 10:25am ET | $16.42 | 327 | $5,369.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 3:25pm ET | $16.76 | 327 | $5,482.15 | $5,488.63 |
+$112.81 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:45am ET | $17.99 | 305 | $5,485.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 2:30pm ET | $18.39 | 305 | $5,607.43 | $5,610.63 |
+$122.00 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 10:30am ET | $18.45 | 304 | $5,608.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 10:55am ET | $18.85 | 304 | $5,730.40 | $5,732.26 |
+$121.63 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 12:00pm ET | $18.67 | 307 | $5,730.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 11:25am ET | $18.02 | 307 | $5,532.14 | $5,534.24 |
$-198.02 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 12:15pm ET | $16.74 | 330 | $5,522.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:45am ET | $16.14 | 330 | $5,326.73 | $5,338.42 |
$-195.82 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.5h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 10:25am ET | $16.64 | 320 | $5,323.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 11:10am ET | $17.10 | 320 | $5,472.00 | $5,487.22 |
+$148.80 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 11:55am ET | $18.83 | 291 | $5,479.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 2:35pm ET | $18.21 | 291 | $5,299.11 | $5,306.80 |
$-180.42 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7h held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 2:40pm ET | $18.28 | 290 | $5,302.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 3:10pm ET | $18.68 | 290 | $5,417.23 | $5,421.38 |
+$114.58 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 10:10am ET | $22.66 | 239 | $5,415.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 12:40pm ET | $23.17 | 239 | $5,538.82 | $5,544.46 |
+$123.08 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.5h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$5,544.46
Net Profit/Loss:
$-4,455.54
Total Return:
-44.56%