SPXU Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 51 trades in period
+22.71%
Year to Date Return
$10,515.85
Current Value
63%
Win Rate
$8,569.57
Period Start
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.
Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
42.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
-1.5%
EMA20 Dist
-1.8%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026
19
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.6/35
Total Return
6.6/25
Win Rate
7.0/15
Profit Factor
0.2/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality
19.4/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 19.2
30-Day Momentum
13
+0.0%
30d Return
63%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 15.9
Conf: 0.81×
Cooling (-6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
11,057
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
123 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$8,569.57
Current Value
$10,515.85
Period P&L
$1,946.28
Max Drawdown
-29.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.17
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
51
Winners / Losers
32 /
19
Best Trade
+5.16%
Worst Trade
-5.68%
Avg Trade Return
+0.44%
Avg Hold Time
1.7d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,023,034.15
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,946.28
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,946.28
Gross Return
+22.71%
Net Return (after fees)
+22.71%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SPXU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 123 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 51 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $8,569.57 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 9:50am ET | $48.84 | 175 | $8,547.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 10:55am ET | $49.89 | 175 | $8,730.75 | $8,753.32 |
+$183.75 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 1:30pm ET | $48.37 | 180 | $8,706.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $47.76 | 180 | $8,596.80 | $8,643.52 |
$-109.80 (-1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.8d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 10:35am ET | $47.53 | 181 | $8,602.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 10:00am ET | $48.53 | 181 | $8,783.93 | $8,824.52 |
+$181.00 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.4h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 10:10am ET | $47.37 | 186 | $8,810.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $49.82 | 186 | $9,265.68 | $9,279.38 |
+$454.86 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $50.33 | 184 | $9,259.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 2:40pm ET | $48.71 | 184 | $8,962.64 | $8,982.15 |
$-297.23 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 3:50pm ET | $48.41 | 185 | $8,955.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 11:10am ET | $46.95 | 185 | $8,685.90 | $8,712.19 |
$-269.95 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 12:45pm ET | $47.23 | 184 | $8,690.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:00am ET | $48.18 | 184 | $8,865.12 | $8,886.99 |
+$174.80 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 10:40am ET | $47.61 | 186 | $8,855.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 1:15pm ET | $48.69 | 186 | $9,056.34 | $9,087.87 |
+$200.88 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.6h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 1:45pm ET | $46.96 | 193 | $9,062.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 10:10am ET | $47.95 | 193 | $9,254.35 | $9,279.47 |
+$191.59 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.4h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 12:00pm ET | $49.03 | 189 | $9,266.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.33 | 189 | $9,512.39 | $9,525.19 |
+$245.72 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.5h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $49.69 | 191 | $9,490.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 3:40pm ET | $48.12 | 191 | $9,190.92 | $9,225.32 |
$-299.87 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.2h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 3:45pm ET | $47.28 | 195 | $9,219.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET | $47.23 | 195 | $9,209.85 | $9,215.57 |
$-9.75 (-0.1%) |
📅 Sim Ended
20.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 11:00am ET | $50.83 | 181 | $9,200.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 10:00am ET | $49.15 | 181 | $8,897.05 | $8,912.39 |
$-303.18 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 11:15am ET | $49.46 | 180 | $8,902.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $50.53 | 180 | $9,094.50 | $9,104.09 |
+$191.70 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 10:45am ET | $48.31 | 188 | $9,082.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:25am ET | $49.41 | 188 | $9,289.08 | $9,310.87 |
+$206.78 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 10:45am ET | $49.36 | 188 | $9,279.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.94 | 188 | $9,576.72 | $9,607.91 |
+$297.04 (+3.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 10:15am ET | $52.24 | 183 | $9,559.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 1:35pm ET | $50.60 | 183 | $9,259.75 | $9,307.70 |
$-300.21 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 1:35pm ET | $49.25 | 188 | $9,259.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.24 | 188 | $9,445.12 | $9,493.80 |
+$186.10 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.9h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 10:00am ET | $52.48 | 180 | $9,446.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.73 | 180 | $9,671.40 | $9,718.80 |
+$225.00 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 10:20am ET | $51.51 | 188 | $9,684.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.87 | 188 | $9,939.56 | $9,973.54 |
+$254.74 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $52.93 | 188 | $9,950.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 11:00am ET | $54.14 | 188 | $10,178.32 | $10,201.02 |
+$227.48 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 11:20am ET | $53.09 | 192 | $10,193.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 2:35pm ET | $54.26 | 192 | $10,418.88 | $10,426.20 |
+$225.18 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 3:00pm ET | $55.83 | 186 | $10,384.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 10:15am ET | $57.10 | 186 | $10,620.62 | $10,662.44 |
+$236.24 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.3h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 10:15am ET | $54.83 | 194 | $10,636.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 12:00pm ET | $55.94 | 194 | $10,851.39 | $10,877.78 |
+$215.34 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 1:30pm ET | $56.67 | 191 | $10,823.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $54.67 | 191 | $10,441.97 | $10,495.78 |
$-382.00 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:50am ET | $56.23 | 186 | $10,458.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 12:50pm ET | $57.36 | 186 | $10,668.96 | $10,705.96 |
+$210.18 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 12:50pm ET | $59.93 | 178 | $10,667.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 3:05pm ET | $61.22 | 178 | $10,897.14 | $10,935.56 |
+$229.60 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 3:45pm ET | $62.39 | 175 | $10,918.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $59.95 | 175 | $10,491.25 | $10,508.56 |
$-427.00 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 10:05am ET | $55.53 | 189 | $10,495.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $57.63 | 189 | $10,892.07 | $10,905.46 |
+$396.90 (+3.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.4h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $55.22 | 197 | $10,878.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 11:05am ET | $56.47 | 197 | $11,124.59 | $11,151.71 |
+$246.25 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 11:55am ET | $50.68 | 220 | $11,149.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 11:55am ET | $49.76 | 220 | $10,948.30 | $10,950.41 |
$-201.30 (-1.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 12:25pm ET | $46.74 | 234 | $10,936.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $45.27 | 234 | $10,593.18 | $10,607.02 |
$-343.39 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $44.13 | 240 | $10,592.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $43.79 | 240 | $10,509.60 | $10,524.22 |
$-82.80 (-0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 10:25am ET | $43.44 | 242 | $10,512.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 1:25pm ET | $44.33 | 242 | $10,726.65 | $10,738.39 |
+$214.17 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 1:45pm ET | $42.98 | 249 | $10,702.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 12:35pm ET | $43.85 | 249 | $10,918.65 | $10,955.00 |
+$216.61 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 1:30pm ET | $42.58 | 257 | $10,941.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 10:00am ET | $41.21 | 257 | $10,590.97 | $10,604.19 |
$-350.81 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.5h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 10:20am ET | $41.67 | 254 | $10,584.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 12:10pm ET | $42.68 | 254 | $10,840.72 | $10,860.73 |
+$256.54 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 12:25pm ET | $41.29 | 263 | $10,860.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 10:35am ET | $40.05 | 263 | $10,533.15 | $10,533.30 |
$-327.43 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 10:40am ET | $39.36 | 267 | $10,509.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 1:30pm ET | $40.15 | 267 | $10,721.38 | $10,745.08 |
+$211.78 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 1:30pm ET | $38.99 | 275 | $10,722.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 11:20am ET | $39.78 | 275 | $10,940.87 | $10,963.65 |
+$218.57 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 11:35am ET | $38.74 | 282 | $10,926.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 10:50am ET | $37.55 | 282 | $10,589.10 | $10,626.66 |
$-336.99 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 12:30pm ET | $38.49 | 276 | $10,623.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 11:20am ET | $39.29 | 276 | $10,844.04 | $10,847.46 |
+$220.80 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 11:45am ET | $39.73 | 273 | $10,846.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 3:35pm ET | $38.50 | 273 | $10,510.50 | $10,511.67 |
$-335.79 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $37.67 | 279 | $10,509.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $37.12 | 279 | $10,356.70 | $10,358.41 |
$-153.26 (-1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 10:00am ET | $37.19 | 278 | $10,337.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 1:30pm ET | $36.06 | 278 | $10,023.29 | $10,044.27 |
$-314.14 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 2:50pm ET | $36.02 | 278 | $10,013.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 12:35pm ET | $36.76 | 278 | $10,219.25 | $10,249.96 |
+$205.69 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.8h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 1:50pm ET | $36.26 | 282 | $10,225.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $36.99 | 282 | $10,431.18 | $10,455.82 |
+$205.86 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.7h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 12:20pm ET | $38.19 | 273 | $10,424.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 3:25pm ET | $39.02 | 273 | $10,652.46 | $10,683.77 |
+$227.95 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 12:40pm ET | $40.07 | 266 | $10,658.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 3:15pm ET | $40.94 | 266 | $10,888.71 | $10,913.86 |
+$230.09 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.6h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 3:20pm ET | $39.12 | 279 | $10,913.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $36.90 | 279 | $10,293.71 | $10,294.48 |
$-619.38 (-5.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $36.40 | 282 | $10,263.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $37.18 | 282 | $10,484.76 | $10,515.85 |
+$221.37 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,515.85
Net Profit/Loss:
+$515.85
Total Return:
+5.16%