SQQQ Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 45 trades in period
-8.99%
Year to Date Return
$6,265.75
Current Value
56%
Win Rate
$6,884.60
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
67.3 neutral
20d Trend
+15.2%
5d Trend
+22.2%
EMA20 Dist
+12.2%
ATR%
4.2%
Range Pos
70%
Bounce Ratio
3.0×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
9
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.4/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.8/10
Raw Quality
9.2/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 9.2
30-Day Momentum
9
-12.9%
30d Return
36%
Win Rate
11
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0
Conf: 0.90×
Cooling (-0 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,581
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$6,884.60
Current Value
$6,265.75
Period P&L
$-618.75
Max Drawdown
-53.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.06
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
45
Winners / Losers
25 /
20
Best Trade
+4.42%
Worst Trade
-4.52%
Avg Trade Return
-0.17%
Avg Hold Time
23.9h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$594,039.15
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-618.75
Net P&L (after fees)
$-618.75
Gross Return
-8.99%
Net Return (after fees)
-8.99%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 45 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $6,884.60 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 2:00pm ET | $69.54 | 99 | $6,884.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $67.37 | 99 | $6,669.63 | $6,669.69 |
$-214.83 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $66.25 | 100 | $6,624.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 12:40pm ET | $64.23 | 100 | $6,422.99 | $6,468.18 |
$-201.51 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 12:40pm ET | $66.65 | 97 | $6,465.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 1:35pm ET | $64.55 | 97 | $6,261.35 | $6,264.48 |
$-203.70 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 2:15pm ET | $64.24 | 97 | $6,230.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:45am ET | $65.53 | 97 | $6,356.41 | $6,390.09 |
+$125.62 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.5h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 11:25am ET | $67.33 | 94 | $6,328.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $64.96 | 94 | $6,106.00 | $6,167.54 |
$-222.55 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.1h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $65.18 | 94 | $6,126.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 10:15am ET | $66.64 | 94 | $6,264.16 | $6,304.78 |
+$137.24 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
48m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 10:30am ET | $68.87 | 91 | $6,267.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 1:45pm ET | $70.27 | 91 | $6,394.58 | $6,432.19 |
+$127.41 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.3h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 2:25pm ET | $68.35 | 94 | $6,424.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 11:45am ET | $66.27 | 94 | $6,229.13 | $6,236.41 |
$-195.77 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 1:25pm ET | $65.76 | 94 | $6,181.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 9:50am ET | $63.62 | 94 | $5,980.28 | $6,035.25 |
$-201.16 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 12:05pm ET | $62.90 | 95 | $5,975.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:40am ET | $64.24 | 95 | $6,102.78 | $6,162.27 |
+$127.02 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.6h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 10:40am ET | $64.69 | 95 | $6,145.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 12:05pm ET | $66.10 | 95 | $6,279.50 | $6,296.22 |
+$133.95 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.4h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 2:15pm ET | $68.78 | 91 | $6,258.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $70.33 | 91 | $6,400.03 | $6,437.72 |
+$141.51 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 11:25am ET | $73.41 | 87 | $6,386.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 11:30am ET | $71.03 | 87 | $6,179.61 | $6,230.66 |
$-207.06 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 11:50am ET | $67.94 | 91 | $6,182.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $68.21 | 91 | $6,206.72 | $6,254.39 |
+$23.72 (+0.4%) |
📅 Sim Ended
1d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:55am ET | $74.74 | 83 | $6,203.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 1:55pm ET | $72.30 | 83 | $6,000.89 | $6,051.86 |
$-202.53 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 11:20am ET | $71.45 | 84 | $6,001.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 1:00pm ET | $72.93 | 84 | $6,125.72 | $6,175.78 |
+$123.92 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.7h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 1:00pm ET | $70.70 | 87 | $6,150.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 10:35am ET | $72.35 | 87 | $6,294.45 | $6,319.32 |
+$143.54 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 11:55am ET | $70.66 | 89 | $6,288.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:45am ET | $68.47 | 89 | $6,093.77 | $6,124.36 |
$-194.96 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 10:45am ET | $70.60 | 86 | $6,071.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $72.28 | 86 | $6,216.08 | $6,269.27 |
+$144.91 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 10:10am ET | $71.54 | 87 | $6,224.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $74.71 | 87 | $6,499.77 | $6,544.63 |
+$275.36 (+4.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 10:10am ET | $70.75 | 92 | $6,509.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 12:45pm ET | $72.18 | 92 | $6,640.10 | $6,675.73 |
+$131.10 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 1:10pm ET | $71.60 | 93 | $6,658.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 3:20pm ET | $73.25 | 93 | $6,812.71 | $6,829.65 |
+$153.91 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 3:20pm ET | $71.69 | 95 | $6,810.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 10:50am ET | $69.44 | 95 | $6,596.60 | $6,615.70 |
$-213.95 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.5h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 12:30pm ET | $70.51 | 93 | $6,557.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $72.08 | 93 | $6,703.90 | $6,761.71 |
+$146.01 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $72.35 | 93 | $6,728.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 10:40am ET | $73.92 | 93 | $6,874.57 | $6,907.72 |
+$146.02 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 11:15am ET | $72.86 | 94 | $6,848.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 2:55pm ET | $74.43 | 94 | $6,996.41 | $7,055.29 |
+$147.57 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 2:55pm ET | $76.54 | 92 | $7,041.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 9:55am ET | $78.61 | 92 | $7,232.12 | $7,245.73 |
+$190.44 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 10:15am ET | $75.32 | 96 | $7,230.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 11:55am ET | $77.20 | 96 | $7,411.20 | $7,426.21 |
+$180.48 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.7h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 12:50pm ET | $78.38 | 94 | $7,368.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $76.01 | 94 | $7,144.94 | $7,202.99 |
$-223.22 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:50am ET | $78.85 | 91 | $7,175.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 12:35pm ET | $80.47 | 91 | $7,322.77 | $7,350.07 |
+$147.08 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 12:50pm ET | $85.38 | 86 | $7,342.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 2:10pm ET | $87.21 | 86 | $7,500.49 | $7,507.87 |
+$157.80 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 2:20pm ET | $88.67 | 84 | $7,448.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:25pm ET | $90.50 | 84 | $7,602.00 | $7,661.59 |
+$153.72 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 3:25pm ET | $80.61 | 95 | $7,657.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $78.06 | 95 | $7,415.58 | $7,419.54 |
$-242.05 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.2h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:50am ET | $81.57 | 90 | $7,341.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:35am ET | $79.11 | 90 | $7,119.91 | $7,198.15 |
$-221.39 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
45m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 11:00am ET | $76.43 | 94 | $7,184.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $78.25 | 94 | $7,355.50 | $7,369.22 |
+$171.07 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 11:55am ET | $69.29 | 106 | $7,344.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $67.17 | 106 | $7,120.30 | $7,145.31 |
$-223.91 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 10:00am ET | $67.39 | 106 | $7,143.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $64.35 | 106 | $6,821.10 | $6,822.54 |
$-322.77 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.5h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $61.89 | 110 | $6,808.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 2:50pm ET | $59.96 | 110 | $6,595.75 | $6,610.18 |
$-212.36 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 3:40pm ET | $58.72 | 112 | $6,576.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 10:05am ET | $56.83 | 112 | $6,364.96 | $6,398.28 |
$-211.90 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.4h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 12:15pm ET | $57.33 | 111 | $6,363.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 10:20am ET | $55.59 | 111 | $6,170.48 | $6,204.82 |
$-193.46 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 10:55am ET | $54.72 | 113 | $6,183.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 1:20pm ET | $55.92 | 113 | $6,318.40 | $6,339.85 |
+$135.03 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.4h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 1:40pm ET | $52.78 | 120 | $6,333.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $54.20 | 120 | $6,504.00 | $6,510.25 |
+$170.40 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 10:20am ET | $53.72 | 121 | $6,500.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 1:45pm ET | $52.08 | 121 | $6,301.69 | $6,311.82 |
$-198.43 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 1:50pm ET | $49.94 | 126 | $6,292.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 12:10pm ET | $51.20 | 126 | $6,451.20 | $6,470.57 |
+$158.75 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 12:10pm ET | $48.53 | 133 | $6,454.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $46.99 | 133 | $6,249.67 | $6,265.75 |
$-204.82 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.4h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$6,265.75
Net Profit/Loss:
$-3,734.25
Total Return:
-37.34%