USO Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 52 trades in period
+28.44%
Year to Date Return
$11,528.84
Current Value
65%
Win Rate
$8,976.26
Period Start
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.
Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
55.8 neutral
20d Trend
+3.7%
5d Trend
-4.0%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
71%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
9/1
Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026
25
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
1.8/35
Total Return
10.1/25
Win Rate
7.7/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
5.7/10
Raw Quality
25.7/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 25.5
30-Day Momentum
6
-14.5%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
8
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 7.1
Conf: 0.81×
Declining (-20 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
11,217
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
122 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$8,976.26
Current Value
$11,528.84
Period P&L
$2,552.60
Max Drawdown
-29.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.14
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
52
Winners / Losers
34 /
18
Best Trade
+11.04%
Worst Trade
-8.66%
Avg Trade Return
+0.54%
Avg Hold Time
1.6d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,212,143.38
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,552.60
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,552.60
Gross Return
+28.44%
Net Return (after fees)
+28.44%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 USO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 122 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 52 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $8,976.26 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 12:00pm ET | $69.86 | 129 | $9,011.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $69.99 | 129 | $9,028.07 | $9,083.04 |
+$16.13 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 9:55am ET | $69.97 | 129 | $9,026.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 11:35am ET | $67.85 | 129 | $8,752.65 | $8,809.56 |
$-273.48 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:05am ET | $71.04 | 124 | $8,808.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $72.92 | 124 | $9,042.08 | $9,042.68 |
+$233.12 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 10:50am ET | $74.03 | 122 | $9,031.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 3:35pm ET | $71.58 | 122 | $8,732.76 | $8,743.78 |
$-298.90 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 10:50am ET | $72.04 | 121 | $8,716.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 10:50am ET | $73.05 | 121 | $8,839.05 | $8,866.60 |
+$122.82 (+1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 11:15am ET | $72.15 | 122 | $8,801.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $73.91 | 122 | $9,017.02 | $9,081.93 |
+$215.33 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 9:50am ET | $73.30 | 123 | $9,015.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 11:25am ET | $74.81 | 123 | $9,201.63 | $9,267.66 |
+$185.73 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 11:25am ET | $76.07 | 121 | $9,204.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $80.02 | 121 | $9,682.42 | $9,745.61 |
+$477.95 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.1h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 11:45am ET | $79.32 | 122 | $9,677.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $75.31 | 122 | $9,187.82 | $9,256.39 |
$-489.22 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 11:00am ET | $75.83 | 122 | $9,251.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 3:40pm ET | $77.39 | 122 | $9,441.58 | $9,446.10 |
+$189.71 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.7h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 3:45pm ET | $77.94 | 121 | $9,430.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:45pm ET | $77.95 | 121 | $9,431.79 | $9,447.14 |
+$1.05 (+0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:20am ET | $75.75 | 124 | $9,393.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $77.90 | 124 | $9,659.60 | $9,713.74 |
+$266.60 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.2h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 11:20am ET | $80.78 | 120 | $9,693.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 11:20am ET | $80.60 | 120 | $9,672.00 | $9,692.14 |
$-21.60 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 11:40am ET | $79.64 | 121 | $9,636.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.06 | 121 | $9,928.66 | $9,984.36 |
+$292.22 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 10:40am ET | $87.02 | 114 | $9,920.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $94.02 | 114 | $10,718.28 | $10,782.36 |
+$798.00 (+8.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 12:50pm ET | $91.09 | 118 | $10,748.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $94.40 | 118 | $11,139.20 | $11,172.94 |
+$390.58 (+3.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.7h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 11:00am ET | $105.56 | 105 | $11,083.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 12:30pm ET | $108.30 | 105 | $11,371.50 | $11,460.64 |
+$287.70 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 1:30pm ET | $113.86 | 100 | $11,386.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 3:25pm ET | $108.59 | 100 | $10,859.00 | $10,933.64 |
$-527.00 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $103.89 | 105 | $10,908.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 10:30am ET | $106.32 | 105 | $11,163.60 | $11,188.79 |
+$255.15 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
55m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 11:45am ET | $115.78 | 96 | $11,114.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 2:50pm ET | $118.36 | 96 | $11,362.56 | $11,436.47 |
+$247.68 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 9:50am ET | $115.82 | 98 | $11,350.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 12:25pm ET | $118.45 | 98 | $11,608.10 | $11,694.22 |
+$257.75 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.6h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 1:00pm ET | $117.46 | 99 | $11,628.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $121.16 | 99 | $11,994.84 | $12,060.52 |
+$366.30 (+3.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.5h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 9:40am ET | $120.39 | 100 | $12,039.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 11:45am ET | $123.50 | 100 | $12,350.00 | $12,371.52 |
+$311.00 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 1:00pm ET | $121.44 | 101 | $12,265.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $113.15 | 101 | $11,428.15 | $11,534.23 |
$-837.29 (-6.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:55am ET | $115.13 | 100 | $11,513.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $109.13 | 100 | $10,913.00 | $10,934.22 |
$-600.01 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.6h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 12:45pm ET | $118.04 | 92 | $10,859.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $120.69 | 92 | $11,103.48 | $11,178.48 |
+$244.26 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.8h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 10:00am ET | $127.51 | 87 | $11,093.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 11:10am ET | $130.28 | 87 | $11,334.36 | $11,419.47 |
+$240.99 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 12:25pm ET | $125.10 | 91 | $11,383.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $138.90 | 91 | $12,639.90 | $12,675.72 |
+$1,256.25 (+11.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.1h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 10:00am ET | $138.21 | 91 | $12,577.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $141.27 | 91 | $12,855.57 | $12,954.18 |
+$278.46 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.5h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 11:20am ET | $122.19 | 106 | $12,952.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 3:25pm ET | $124.73 | 106 | $13,221.38 | $13,223.42 |
+$269.24 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:55am ET | $125.76 | 105 | $13,204.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $133.26 | 105 | $13,992.43 | $14,011.06 |
+$787.64 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 10:00am ET | $125.74 | 111 | $13,957.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $114.85 | 111 | $12,748.77 | $12,802.56 |
$-1,208.50 (-8.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 12:25pm ET | $121.96 | 104 | $12,683.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 11:25am ET | $124.98 | 104 | $12,997.92 | $13,116.63 |
+$314.07 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 1:10pm ET | $129.46 | 101 | $13,075.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 12:05pm ET | $132.26 | 101 | $13,358.76 | $13,400.28 |
+$283.65 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.9h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 1:00pm ET | $130.88 | 102 | $13,349.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $134.04 | 102 | $13,671.57 | $13,722.09 |
+$321.81 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:45am ET | $138.35 | 99 | $13,696.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $146.01 | 99 | $14,454.99 | $14,480.92 |
+$758.83 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 9:50am ET | $147.26 | 98 | $14,431.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $142.35 | 98 | $13,950.30 | $13,999.25 |
$-481.67 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $143.00 | 97 | $13,871.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 11:20am ET | $146.80 | 97 | $14,239.60 | $14,367.85 |
+$368.60 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 11:45am ET | $142.78 | 100 | $14,278.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $135.51 | 100 | $13,551.00 | $13,640.85 |
$-727.00 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 10:05am ET | $128.18 | 106 | $13,587.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 11:55am ET | $131.07 | 106 | $13,893.42 | $13,946.66 |
+$305.81 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 12:15pm ET | $134.65 | 103 | $13,868.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 10:30am ET | $137.38 | 103 | $14,150.14 | $14,227.85 |
+$281.19 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 1:00pm ET | $143.49 | 99 | $14,205.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 10:40am ET | $146.42 | 99 | $14,495.67 | $14,518.01 |
+$290.16 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 12:15pm ET | $150.70 | 96 | $14,466.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 11:20am ET | $144.88 | 96 | $13,908.48 | $13,959.77 |
$-558.24 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 11:40am ET | $148.46 | 94 | $13,955.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 1:20pm ET | $143.39 | 94 | $13,478.73 | $13,483.26 |
$-476.51 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 2:40pm ET | $141.06 | 95 | $13,400.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $136.09 | 95 | $12,928.55 | $13,011.11 |
$-472.15 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 11:05am ET | $132.85 | 97 | $12,886.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $128.38 | 97 | $12,453.34 | $12,578.00 |
$-433.11 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 10:15am ET | $136.98 | 91 | $12,464.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 10:30am ET | $139.94 | 91 | $12,734.54 | $12,847.81 |
+$269.81 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 11:15am ET | $136.26 | 94 | $12,808.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $131.87 | 94 | $12,395.78 | $12,435.15 |
$-412.66 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 10:25am ET | $133.05 | 93 | $12,373.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 1:20pm ET | $135.91 | 93 | $12,639.86 | $12,701.35 |
+$266.20 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 1:30pm ET | $130.86 | 97 | $12,693.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 11:00am ET | $126.35 | 97 | $12,255.95 | $12,263.76 |
$-437.59 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.5h held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 11:20am ET | $119.96 | 102 | $12,235.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 10:25am ET | $116.25 | 102 | $11,856.99 | $11,884.82 |
$-378.94 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.1h held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 10:25am ET | $115.90 | 102 | $11,821.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $112.41 | 102 | $11,465.82 | $11,528.84 |
$-355.98 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.1h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,528.84
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,528.84
Total Return:
+15.29%