XOM Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 39 trades in period
+8.14%
Year to Date Return
$14,735.43
Current Value
64%
Win Rate
$13,626.11
Period Start
PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.
Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
74.9 overbought
20d Trend
+15.2%
5d Trend
+3.0%
EMA20 Dist
+5.9%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
94%
Bounce Ratio
3.7×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026
42
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
12.0/35
Total Return
14.0/25
Win Rate
8.2/15
Profit Factor
2.0/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality
42.1/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 41.8
30-Day Momentum
4
-10.9%
30d Return
29%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.7
Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-37 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
10,741
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-02 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
121 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$13,626.11
Current Value
$14,735.43
Period P&L
$1,109.37
Max Drawdown
-13.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.09
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
39
Winners / Losers
25 /
14
Best Trade
+4.24%
Worst Trade
-4.49%
Avg Trade Return
+0.23%
Avg Hold Time
2.7d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,209,688.76
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,109.37
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,109.37
Gross Return
+8.14%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.14%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XOM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 121 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 39 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $13,626.11 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 3:15pm ET | $122.46 | 111 | $13,593.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $125.61 | 111 | $13,942.71 | $13,975.72 |
+$349.65 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 9:55am ET | $124.06 | 112 | $13,894.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $119.13 | 112 | $13,342.00 | $13,422.96 |
$-552.76 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.6h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 11:15am ET | $120.53 | 111 | $13,378.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 1:55pm ET | $123.17 | 111 | $13,671.32 | $13,716.00 |
+$293.04 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.7h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 3:10pm ET | $124.24 | 110 | $13,666.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:40am ET | $126.76 | 110 | $13,943.52 | $13,993.12 |
+$277.12 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 11:45am ET | $129.30 | 108 | $13,964.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $130.38 | 108 | $14,081.04 | $14,109.76 |
+$116.64 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:50am ET | $133.15 | 105 | $13,980.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $135.91 | 105 | $14,270.55 | $14,399.68 |
+$289.93 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 9:55am ET | $135.61 | 106 | $14,374.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $141.36 | 106 | $14,983.63 | $15,008.65 |
+$608.97 (+4.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 11:05am ET | $139.40 | 107 | $14,915.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 10:45am ET | $142.38 | 107 | $15,235.19 | $15,328.58 |
+$319.93 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 11:40am ET | $146.31 | 104 | $15,216.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 10:25am ET | $149.25 | 104 | $15,522.00 | $15,634.34 |
+$305.76 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:40am ET | $149.36 | 104 | $15,533.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $150.87 | 104 | $15,690.48 | $15,791.38 |
+$157.04 (+1.0%) |
📅 Sim Ended
1.1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $147.26 | 107 | $15,756.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 12:15pm ET | $150.23 | 107 | $16,074.61 | $16,109.17 |
+$317.79 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 12:45pm ET | $151.73 | 106 | $16,083.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 11:25am ET | $147.14 | 106 | $15,596.84 | $15,622.64 |
$-486.53 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.7h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 11:35am ET | $150.25 | 103 | $15,476.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 3:25pm ET | $153.43 | 103 | $15,803.29 | $15,949.85 |
+$327.21 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 10:50am ET | $151.87 | 105 | $15,946.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $151.57 | 105 | $15,915.37 | $15,918.88 |
$-30.97 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 9:55am ET | $148.35 | 107 | $15,873.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 10:40am ET | $151.38 | 107 | $16,197.67 | $16,243.10 |
+$324.22 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 12:35pm ET | $154.51 | 105 | $16,223.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 11:10am ET | $157.66 | 105 | $16,554.30 | $16,573.64 |
+$330.54 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 12:20pm ET | $160.15 | 103 | $16,495.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 10:00am ET | $155.21 | 103 | $15,986.63 | $16,064.82 |
$-508.82 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 11:45am ET | $161.26 | 99 | $15,964.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $155.32 | 99 | $15,376.68 | $15,477.26 |
$-587.56 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 10:25am ET | $165.49 | 93 | $15,390.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 10:10am ET | $169.15 | 93 | $15,731.41 | $15,818.10 |
+$340.84 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 10:10am ET | $174.83 | 90 | $15,734.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 1:10pm ET | $168.60 | 90 | $15,174.01 | $15,257.41 |
$-560.69 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 1:10pm ET | $160.48 | 95 | $15,245.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $164.68 | 95 | $15,644.60 | $15,656.41 |
+$399.00 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.3h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 11:00am ET | $161.20 | 97 | $15,636.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $165.30 | 97 | $16,034.58 | $16,054.59 |
+$398.18 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.6h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 10:15am ET | $153.81 | 104 | $15,996.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $157.02 | 104 | $16,330.08 | $16,388.43 |
+$333.84 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $153.77 | 106 | $16,299.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $147.62 | 106 | $15,647.72 | $15,736.53 |
$-651.90 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 9:40am ET | $148.01 | 106 | $15,689.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 9:50am ET | $151.23 | 106 | $16,030.38 | $16,077.85 |
+$341.32 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 9:55am ET | $143.90 | 111 | $15,972.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $147.34 | 111 | $16,354.74 | $16,459.69 |
+$381.84 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 1:40pm ET | $148.13 | 111 | $16,442.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $149.15 | 111 | $16,556.20 | $16,573.46 |
+$113.77 (+0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 11:50am ET | $151.90 | 109 | $16,556.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 11:05am ET | $155.00 | 109 | $16,895.00 | $16,911.90 |
+$338.44 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 11:20am ET | $153.05 | 110 | $16,835.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 10:15am ET | $148.12 | 110 | $16,292.65 | $16,369.05 |
$-542.85 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 10:30am ET | $144.41 | 113 | $16,318.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 10:35am ET | $147.30 | 113 | $16,645.46 | $16,696.18 |
+$327.13 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 12:50pm ET | $150.95 | 110 | $16,603.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $154.23 | 110 | $16,965.30 | $17,057.53 |
+$361.35 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 12:40pm ET | $161.00 | 105 | $16,905.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 12:10pm ET | $156.14 | 105 | $16,394.70 | $16,547.23 |
$-510.30 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 12:20pm ET | $154.10 | 107 | $16,489.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $147.19 | 107 | $15,749.33 | $15,807.33 |
$-739.90 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 9:55am ET | $149.46 | 105 | $15,692.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 9:45am ET | $144.96 | 105 | $15,220.80 | $15,335.36 |
$-471.97 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 10:10am ET | $148.93 | 102 | $15,191.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:45am ET | $152.34 | 102 | $15,538.68 | $15,682.67 |
+$347.31 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 9:55am ET | $151.35 | 103 | $15,588.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $149.36 | 103 | $15,384.08 | $15,478.21 |
$-204.46 (-1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 11:45am ET | $150.76 | 102 | $15,377.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $145.61 | 102 | $14,852.22 | $14,952.91 |
$-525.30 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 10:00am ET | $138.86 | 107 | $14,858.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 10:55am ET | $141.66 | 107 | $15,158.15 | $15,253.04 |
+$300.13 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
55m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 12:10pm ET | $141.39 | 107 | $15,128.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 9:40am ET | $136.55 | 107 | $14,611.12 | $14,735.43 |
$-517.61 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$14,735.43
Net Profit/Loss:
+$4,735.43
Total Return:
+47.35%