Back to Compendium
Grace Crossover
2

Grace Crossover

The Patient One

📊 Swing Trader 📅 66 years old (Born 1960)

"The fast moving average is the heartbeat. The slow moving average is the breath. When heartbeat crosses breath, the market has made its decision."

Elegant woman in her mid-60s with silver hair in a neat bun. Minimalist wardrobe—black turtleneck, simple silver watch. Her desk is immaculate, containing only what is essential.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

May 6, 2025 May 6, 2026 (365d)

📊 Last Year Performance: Showing Grace Crossover's performance over the last year across 102 stock symbols. 🟢 LIVE

$11,227
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $10,597 (+$630)
+5.95%
Last Year ROI
30.7%
Win Rate
13,507
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

+2.1%
1 Month
+1.0%
3 Months
+1.8%
6 Months
+1.4%
YTD
+5.9%
1 Year

Equity Curve (Last Year)

Combined P&L across all 102 symbols

⚙️ Trading Strategy

EMA crossover - 9 EMA crossing 21 EMA signals entry

Monitors the 9-period and 21-period Exponential Moving Averages. When the fast EMA (9) crosses above the slow EMA (21), it signals bullish momentum and triggers a buy. The opposite cross triggers a sell.

🎯 Best Suited For

Stocks with clean trending behavior

"The trend is your friend until it bends."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets trend roughly 30% of the time—but that's where the big money is made. The crossover filters out noise and identifies when momentum has genuinely shifted.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php

📊 Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMAt = (Close × k) + (EMAt-1 × (1 - k))
Unlike SMA, EMA weighs recent prices more heavily. The multiplier k controls sensitivity.
k = Smoothing Factor = 2 ÷ (Period + 1)
For 9 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 10 = 0.20 (20% weight to current price)
For 21 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 22 ≈ 0.0909 (9.09% weight to current price)
First EMA = SMA of first n periods (seeding)
📚 Robert Goodell Brown's "Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction" (1963)

📊 Golden Cross (Buy Signal)

Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≤ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t > EMAslow,t)
The moment the fast EMA crosses ABOVE the slow EMA indicates bullish momentum shift.
EMA_fast = 9-period EMA (the "heartbeat")
EMA_slow = 21-period EMA (the "breath")
Cross detected: previous bar fast ≤ slow, current bar fast > slow
📚 Richard Donchian's trend-following system (1960s)

📊 Death Cross (Sell Signal)

Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≥ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t < EMAslow,t)
The moment the fast EMA crosses BELOW the slow EMA indicates bearish momentum shift.
Fast EMA falls below slow EMA = trend reversal
Exit signal overrides hold, even if target not reached
📚 Classic technical analysis, popularized by John Murphy

📉 Exit Conditions

• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.08 (+8% gain)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.95 (-5% loss)
• DEATH_CROSS: Fast EMA crosses below Slow EMA
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 60 days

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

FAST_EMA_PERIOD: 9
SLOW_EMA_PERIOD: 21
TARGET_GAIN_PCT: 8%
STOP_LOSS_PCT: -5%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS: 60
STARTING_CAPITAL: 10000

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: Richard Donchian, Father of Trend Following

Richard Donchian began trading in the 1930s but didn't formalize his moving average crossover systems until the 1960s. His insight was profound: you don't need to predict where markets will go—you only need to recognize when they've started going there.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (Last Year)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (Last Year)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 Last Year: May 6, 2025 May 6, 2026 (365 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite   60+ Good   40+ Fair   <40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot   60+ Active   40+ Moderate   <40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →
Rank Symbol Score Mom Return 1Y Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund Action
1 MU 15 62🔥 +94.55% $5,839 $11,359 123 38% - +$5,520 -48.4% 10.8h -
2 SOXL 18 73🔥 +74.89% $6,939 $12,135 118 36% - +$5,196 -51.2% 11.0h -
3 RIVN 38 13🧊 +66.67% $12,826 $21,377 130 37% - +$8,551 -33.5% 10.9h -
4 RIOT 28 40 +52.28% $10,687 $16,274 128 34% - +$5,587 -34.2% 9.1h -
5 USO 35 14🧊 +48.28% $9,772 $14,490 129 35% - +$4,718 -11.7% 10.8h -
6 LCID 39 65🔥 +46.33% $13,052 $19,099 136 26% - +$6,047 -23.9% 10.4h -
7 SOFI 51 40 +40.49% $17,586 $24,706 131 31% - +$7,120 -22.8% 11.5h -
8 HOOD 33 44 +39.34% $11,784 $16,420 130 28% - +$4,636 -21.5% 10.9h -
9 SLV 26 9 +34.88% $9,755 $13,158 131 37% - +$3,403 -14.1% 11.3h -
10 GOOGL 21 66🔥 +33.22% $9,257 $12,333 135 36% - +$3,075 -22.4% 10.5h -
11 CSCO 58 57 +31.37% $11,544 $15,165 131 36% - +$3,621 -5.8% 11.6h -
12 GS 41 56 +22.84% $11,789 $14,482 135 35% - +$2,693 -8.5% 10.1h -
13 INTC 18 71🔥 +21.99% $9,629 $11,747 138 27% - +$2,118 -21.5% 7.8h -
14 XLK 27 35 +21.54% $10,550 $12,823 125 39% - +$2,273 -13.1% 10.5h -
15 COIN 22 7 +20.08% $10,613 $12,744 130 27% - +$2,131 -23.0% 10.2h -
16 MARA 33 33 +17.81% $16,867 $19,871 137 31% - +$3,004 -35.1% 9.9h -
17 SCHW 48 6🧊 +17.01% $12,324 $14,420 124 38% - +$2,096 -6.9% 10.9h -
18 VRTX 31 9🧊 +16.69% $11,284 $13,167 137 34% - +$1,883 -9.6% 11.3h -
19 PEP 34 9🧊 +15.81% $10,698 $12,389 131 36% - +$1,691 -6.0% 11.3h -
20 BAC 16 43🔥 +15.47% $9,422 $10,879 128 38% - +$1,458 -19.3% 10.2h -
21 AMZN 10 45🔥 +15.32% $8,850 $10,206 132 35% - +$1,356 -24.3% 11.0h -
22 MRK 19 9 +14.83% $9,811 $11,266 130 38% - +$1,455 -15.0% 11.4h -
23 ABBV 7 25 +14.38% $8,803 $10,069 136 36% - +$1,266 -20.2% 10.6h -
24 ORCL 5 6 +13.68% $8,311 $9,448 126 36% - +$1,137 -31.9% 11.8h -
25 XOM 30 30 +13.52% $10,693 $12,139 133 36% - +$1,446 -7.7% 11.2h -
26 AVGO 14 38🔥 +13.18% $9,844 $11,141 132 36% - +$1,297 -26.2% 12.5h -
27 PM 54 15🧊 +13.03% $12,473 $14,099 123 27% - +$1,625 -4.1% 12.3h -
28 SLB 13 7 +11.98% $9,280 $10,392 133 30% - +$1,112 -17.0% 9.5h -
29 AMGN 40 23 +11.93% $11,617 $13,002 141 37% - +$1,386 -5.9% 10.1h -
30 MRNA 3 60🔥 +11.66% $4,531 $5,060 141 32% - +$528 -67.6% 11.1h -
31 GLD 51 12🧊 +11.14% $12,795 $14,220 130 34% - +$1,425 -6.1% 12.6h -
32 MSFT 11 67🔥 +10.95% $9,237 $10,249 133 37% - +$1,011 -19.0% 11.5h -
33 PANW 38 39 +10.77% $12,855 $14,240 132 34% - +$1,385 -10.2% 10.2h -
34 CVX 32 38 +10.27% $11,975 $13,205 135 31% - +$1,230 -10.7% 11.2h -
35 NFLX 21 9 +10.20% $10,642 $11,728 134 37% - +$1,085 -13.6% 11.4h -
36 WFC 27 6🧊 +9.62% $11,302 $12,390 128 33% - +$1,087 -10.6% 11.2h -
37 BIIB 4 9 +9.25% $8,675 $9,477 137 28% - +$802 -21.8% 9.1h -
38 META 5 36🔥 +7.84% $9,089 $9,802 136 29% - +$713 -28.5% 9.8h -
39 AXP 16 9 +7.43% $10,152 $10,906 133 32% - +$754 -17.9% 10.5h -
40 LLY 28 22 +6.75% $12,565 $13,414 133 35% - +$848 -13.5% 10.7h -
41 IWM 23 45🔥 +6.44% $10,734 $11,425 136 29% - +$691 -8.0% 9.6h -
42 UNH 6 40🔥 +5.71% $9,473 $10,014 132 27% - +$541 -17.4% 9.8h -
43 COST 24 5 +5.59% $11,055 $11,673 136 31% - +$618 -8.3% 12.2h -
44 QQQ 22 40 +5.24% $10,826 $11,393 125 34% - +$567 -9.3% 11.6h -
45 C 15 9 +5.06% $10,322 $10,845 132 36% - +$522 -16.6% 10.1h -
46 GME 28 22 +5.03% $13,956 $14,658 140 26% - +$702 -22.2% 8.2h -
47 ARKK 19 55🔥 +4.34% $10,820 $11,290 131 27% - +$470 -13.9% 11.5h -
48 CRWD 28 6🧊 +3.76% $13,782 $14,300 127 34% - +$518 -20.9% 11.7h -
49 DIA 5 9 +3.62% $9,577 $9,924 126 30% - +$347 -8.0% 11.1h -
50 SNOW 4 23 +3.29% $9,020 $9,317 133 32% - +$297 -21.1% 10.3h -
51 HD 4 9 +3.21% $9,580 $9,888 132 26% - +$308 -11.0% 10.3h -
52 JNJ 4 17 +2.69% $9,513 $9,769 129 32% - +$256 -10.9% 11.3h -
53 BMY 3 32🔥 +2.54% $8,928 $9,154 138 28% - +$227 -14.5% 9.3h -
54 VZ 4 45🔥 +2.34% $8,152 $8,343 131 28% - +$191 -22.5% 13.2h -
55 WMT 46 31 +2.23% $13,683 $13,988 132 33% - +$305 -6.4% 14.1h -
56 NVDA 14 27 +2.20% $10,464 $10,695 135 27% - +$230 -30.4% 9.6h -
57 MS 19 15 +2.16% $11,093 $11,332 136 38% - +$240 -12.1% 8.7h -
58 MA 16 42🔥 +1.66% $10,402 $10,575 135 24% - +$173 -9.3% 9.0h -
59 PLTR 44 58 +1.45% $21,660 $21,974 134 31% - +$314 -23.6% 12.0h -
60 DKNG 21 9 +1.28% $12,207 $12,363 136 26% - +$156 -25.0% 11.5h -
61 NET 5 11 +1.27% $8,882 $8,995 127 31% - +$113 -27.1% 9.4h -
62 SPY 18 9 +0.62% $10,647 $10,713 127 30% - +$66 -6.4% 9.3h -
63 CRM 25 62🔥 -0.20% $12,595 $12,570 140 27% - -$25 -15.0% 9.6h -
64 KO 17 24 -1.08% $10,844 $10,727 123 33% - -$117 -6.4% 13.1h -
65 VOO 20 9 -1.61% $10,896 $10,721 128 29% - -$175 -4.8% 8.9h -
66 JPM 25 9 -1.92% $12,165 $11,931 134 28% - -$234 -9.6% 10.5h -
67 BRK-B 3 6 -2.26% $9,216 $9,007 130 22% - -$208 -16.1% 10.0h -
68 VTI 5 21 -2.51% $9,825 $9,578 128 29% - -$247 -11.1% 8.5h -
69 CMCSA 6 9 -3.51% $10,286 $9,925 137 32% - -$361 -8.3% 10.3h -
70 AMD 5 74🔥 -4.13% $9,682 $9,282 137 28% - -$400 -38.6% 8.9h -
71 ISRG 15 10 -4.52% $11,180 $10,675 128 30% - -$505 -10.1% 11.6h -
72 TSLA 4 9 -4.72% $7,765 $7,399 135 31% - -$367 -26.6% 10.7h -
73 TLT 3 9 -5.19% $9,727 $9,223 136 32% - -$505 -7.1% 12.0h -
74 DIS 4 50🔥 -5.42% $10,188 $9,636 139 31% - -$552 -15.9% 8.6h -
75 PFE 4 12 -5.58% $8,740 $8,253 134 30% - -$488 -20.1% 11.0h -
76 COP 16 5 -6.02% $11,389 $10,704 137 26% - -$686 -13.6% 9.7h -
77 IBM 5 31🔥 -6.31% $9,218 $8,636 131 35% - -$582 -12.8% 9.8h -
78 V 3 7 -7.73% $9,248 $8,533 132 30% - -$715 -12.2% 10.0h -
79 PG 18 7 -7.92% $11,590 $10,672 131 27% - -$918 -4.6% 11.1h -
80 TQQQ 4 11 -8.62% $8,337 $7,618 126 32% - -$719 -36.1% 10.2h -
81 XLE 4 9 -9.07% $10,742 $9,768 139 32% - -$974 -13.2% 11.6h -
82 GILD 3 9 -9.19% $8,820 $8,009 138 24% - -$811 -19.1% 8.9h -
83 MDT 4 6 -9.20% $10,030 $9,107 135 26% - -$923 -12.9% 12.0h -
84 REGN 2 9 -9.58% $6,919 $6,256 137 26% - -$663 -33.9% 8.9h -
85 XLF 12 7 -9.99% $11,347 $10,213 134 28% - -$1,134 -6.8% 10.7h -
86 MCD 4 11 -10.00% $9,315 $8,384 134 29% - -$932 -16.7% 11.1h -
87 BLK 18 7 -10.13% $12,145 $10,915 131 31% - -$1,230 -8.6% 12.4h -
88 ARM 3 9 -11.15% $5,734 $5,094 129 31% - -$639 -53.7% 10.4h -
89 NIO 2 7 -11.36% $6,239 $5,530 134 28% - -$709 -42.7% 8.8h -
90 OXY 4 16 -12.40% $10,545 $9,237 138 29% - -$1,308 -14.1% 11.1h -
91 PYPL 4 7 -14.39% $11,000 $9,417 126 22% - -$1,583 -14.2% 12.0h -
92 AAPL 4 9 -14.42% $9,627 $8,238 139 24% - -$1,388 -16.9% 8.9h -
93 SMCI 14 24 -15.20% $13,044 $11,061 135 21% - -$1,983 -43.0% 10.0h -
94 ADBE 3 6 -15.85% $9,486 $7,982 139 34% - -$1,503 -20.5% 12.0h -
95 SQQQ 15 9 -15.91% $13,208 $11,107 134 28% - -$2,101 -27.4% 9.4h -
96 TMO 4 6 -17.97% $10,364 $8,502 137 31% - -$1,862 -14.5% 9.4h -
97 ACN 4 7 -19.47% $10,692 $8,610 137 31% - -$2,082 -7.8% 11.9h -
98 UVXY 26 9 -19.48% $17,850 $14,373 146 23% - -$3,477 -23.5% 7.4h -
99 RBLX 4 7 -20.01% $10,506 $8,404 138 30% - -$2,102 -23.0% 10.9h -
100 AMC 2 60🔥 -23.62% $5,483 $4,188 145 20% - -$1,295 -67.5% 9.0h -
101 SPXU 2 9 -26.54% $10,866 $7,982 76 22% - -$2,884 -29.7% 20.5h -
102 VXX 4 9 -40.14% $13,551 $8,112 145 21% - -$5,439 -42.2% 8.2h -

👤 Personality

Zen-like patience. Never chases trades. Believes rushing leads to ruin. Speaks slowly and deliberately. Has been known to wait months for the perfect entry.