Grace Crossover

The Patient One

📊 Swing Trader 📅 66 years old (Born 1960)

"The fast moving average is the heartbeat. The slow moving average is the breath. When heartbeat crosses breath, the market has made its decision."

Elegant woman in her mid-60s with silver hair in a neat bun. Minimalist wardrobe—black turtleneck, simple silver watch. Her desk is immaculate, containing only what is essential.

📊 View Performance: 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months YTD 1 Year 2 Years

Aug 14, 2025 → Feb 14, 2026 (184 days)

🎯 Asset Class: 📈 Stocks 102 ₿ Crypto 12 🌐 All Assets 114

📊 Last 6 Months Performance: Showing Grace Crossover's performance over the last 6 months across 102 stock symbols. 🟢 LIVE

$11,143

Avg Value (per symbol)

Started at: $10,907 (+$236)

+2.16%

Last 6 Months ROI

29.4%

Win Rate

7,064

Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

Equity Curve (Last 6 Months)

Combined P&L across all 102 symbols

⚙️ Trading Strategy

EMA crossover - 9 EMA crossing 21 EMA signals entry

Monitors the 9-period and 21-period Exponential Moving Averages. When the fast EMA (9) crosses above the slow EMA (21), it signals bullish momentum and triggers a buy. The opposite cross triggers a sell.

🎯 Best Suited For

Stocks with clean trending behavior

"The trend is your friend until it bends."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets trend roughly 30% of the time—but that's where the big money is made. The crossover filters out noise and identifies when momentum has genuinely shifted.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php

📊 Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

                        EMAt = (Close × k) + (EMAt-1 × (1 - k))                    

                        Unlike SMA, EMA weighs recent prices more heavily. The multiplier k controls sensitivity.                    

                            k = Smoothing Factor = 2 ÷ (Period + 1)                        

                            For 9 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 10 = 0.20 (20% weight to current price)                        

                            For 21 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 22 ≈ 0.0909 (9.09% weight to current price)                        

                            First EMA = SMA of first n periods (seeding)

                    📚 Robert Goodell Brown's "Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction" (1963)                

📊 Golden Cross (Buy Signal)

                        Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≤ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t > EMAslow,t)                    

                        The moment the fast EMA crosses ABOVE the slow EMA indicates bullish momentum shift.                    

                            EMA_fast = 9-period EMA (the "heartbeat")                        

                            EMA_slow = 21-period EMA (the "breath")                        

                            Cross detected: previous bar fast ≤ slow, current bar fast > slow

                    📚 Richard Donchian's trend-following system (1960s)                

📊 Death Cross (Sell Signal)

                        Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≥ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t < EMAslow,t)                    

                        The moment the fast EMA crosses BELOW the slow EMA indicates bearish momentum shift.                    

                            Fast EMA falls below slow EMA = trend reversal                        

                            Exit signal overrides hold, even if target not reached

                    📚 Classic technical analysis, popularized by John Murphy                

📉 Exit Conditions

                        • TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.08 (+8% gain)                    

                        • STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.95 (-5% loss)                    

                        • DEATH_CROSS: Fast EMA crosses below Slow EMA                    

                        • MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 60 days                    

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

                        FAST_EMA_PERIOD:
                        9
                    

                        SLOW_EMA_PERIOD:
                        21
                    

                        TARGET_GAIN_PCT:
                        8%
                    

                        STOP_LOSS_PCT:
                        -5%
                    

                        MAX_HOLD_DAYS:
                        60
                    

                        STARTING_CAPITAL:
                        10000
                    

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: Richard Donchian, Father of Trend Following

Richard Donchian began trading in the 1930s but didn't formalize his moving average crossover systems until the 1960s. His insight was profound: you don't need to predict where markets will go—you only need to recognize when they've started going there.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (Last 6 Months)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (Last 6 Months)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 Last 6 Months: Aug 14, 2025 → Feb 14, 2026 (184 days)

Rank	Symbol	Return	6M Start	Final Value	Trades	Win Rate	Fees	Net	Max DD	Avg Hold	Refunds	Last Refund
1	MU	+71.93%	$5,801	$9,973	58	41%	-	+$4,172	-48.4%	10.8h	✓	-
2	COIN	+36.55%	$10,308	$14,076	68	28%	-	+$3,768	-23.0%	10.2h	✓	-
3	RIVN	+29.01%	$14,483	$18,685	69	36%	-	+$4,202	-33.5%	10.9h	✓	-
4	RIOT	+28.14%	$12,476	$15,987	67	33%	-	+$3,511	-34.2%	9.1h	✓	-
5	SOFI	+22.52%	$22,251	$27,262	67	31%	-	+$5,011	-22.8%	11.5h	✓	-
6	SLV	+22.10%	$10,108	$12,341	67	34%	-	+$2,234	-14.1%	11.3h	✓	-
7	HOOD	+21.96%	$13,281	$16,198	65	29%	-	+$2,917	-21.5%	10.9h	✓	-
8	MRNA	+21.14%	$3,841	$4,653	69	36%	-	+$812	-67.6%	11.1h	✓	-
9	GS	+20.52%	$12,203	$14,707	70	36%	-	+$2,504	-8.5%	10.1h	✓	-
10	BIIB	+17.65%	$8,188	$9,633	70	31%	-	+$1,445	-21.8%	9.1h	✓	-
11	LLY	+15.95%	$11,330	$13,137	69	30%	-	+$1,807	-13.5%	10.7h	✓	-
12	LCID	+14.57%	$12,429	$14,239	72	28%	-	+$1,811	-23.9%	10.4h	✓	-
13	C	+13.07%	$11,047	$12,490	65	40%	-	+$1,444	-16.6%	10.1h	✓	-
14	CSCO	+12.32%	$12,004	$13,483	66	36%	-	+$1,479	-5.8%	11.6h	✓	-
15	AXP	+12.02%	$9,967	$11,166	70	34%	-	+$1,198	-17.9%	10.5h	✓	-
16	AMGN	+11.83%	$12,194	$13,636	72	35%	-	+$1,443	-5.9%	10.1h	✓	-
17	TSLA	+10.60%	$7,644	$8,454	68	35%	-	+$810	-26.6%	10.7h	✓	-
18	COST	+10.11%	$10,623	$11,697	72	32%	-	+$1,074	-8.3%	12.2h	✓	-
19	MRK	+9.23%	$9,907	$10,821	67	40%	-	+$914	-15.0%	11.4h	✓	-
20	ABBV	+9.11%	$9,120	$9,951	69	38%	-	+$831	-20.2%	10.6h	✓	-
21	GOOGL	+8.83%	$10,497	$11,424	72	33%	-	+$927	-22.4%	10.5h	✓	-
22	SCHW	+8.75%	$13,273	$14,434	63	40%	-	+$1,161	-6.9%	10.9h	✓	-
23	PM	+8.73%	$13,333	$14,497	67	22%	-	+$1,164	-4.1%	12.3h	✓	-
24	XLK	+8.60%	$11,213	$12,177	64	42%	-	+$964	-13.1%	10.5h	✓	-
25	CRWD	+7.68%	$15,313	$16,489	69	35%	-	+$1,176	-20.9%	11.7h	✓	-
26	SLB	+7.67%	$10,357	$11,151	70	30%	-	+$794	-17.0%	9.5h	✓	-
27	XOM	+7.66%	$10,597	$11,409	72	32%	-	+$812	-7.7%	11.2h	✓	-
28	VRTX	+7.61%	$12,026	$12,941	73	33%	-	+$915	-9.6%	11.3h	✓	-
29	BAC	+7.37%	$10,038	$10,778	69	36%	-	+$740	-19.3%	10.2h	✓	-
30	USO	+7.22%	$10,774	$11,552	65	32%	-	+$778	-11.7%	10.8h	✓	-
31	XLE	+7.04%	$9,665	$10,345	71	38%	-	+$680	-13.2%	11.6h	✓	-
32	CVX	+6.62%	$11,354	$12,106	75	27%	-	+$752	-10.7%	11.2h	✓	-
33	HD	+6.40%	$9,391	$9,992	70	23%	-	+$601	-11.0%	10.3h	✓	-
34	PEP	+5.51%	$11,292	$11,915	68	31%	-	+$622	-6.0%	11.3h	✓	-
35	ARKK	+4.42%	$10,698	$11,171	70	23%	-	+$473	-13.9%	11.5h	✓	-
36	DIA	+3.45%	$9,746	$10,082	67	28%	-	+$336	-8.0%	11.1h	✓	-
37	MDT	+3.25%	$9,852	$10,173	69	28%	-	+$320	-12.9%	12.0h	✓	-
38	JNJ	+2.73%	$9,622	$9,885	68	31%	-	+$263	-10.9%	11.3h	✓	-
39	ORCL	+2.70%	$8,706	$8,941	69	35%	-	+$235	-31.9%	11.8h	✓	-
40	WFC	+2.50%	$12,062	$12,364	69	29%	-	+$302	-10.6%	11.2h	✓	-
41	MARA	+2.44%	$19,815	$20,299	72	25%	-	+$483	-35.1%	9.9h	✓	-
42	PG	+2.43%	$11,943	$12,233	71	27%	-	+$290	-4.6%	11.1h	✓	-
43	AMZN	+1.83%	$9,258	$9,427	68	34%	-	+$169	-24.3%	11.0h	✓	-
44	BRK-B	+1.71%	$8,996	$9,150	68	26%	-	+$154	-16.1%	10.0h	✓	-
45	VTI	+1.01%	$9,754	$9,852	66	29%	-	+$99	-11.1%	8.5h	✓	-
46	VOO	+0.99%	$11,124	$11,234	68	29%	-	+$110	-4.8%	8.9h	✓	-
47	UNH	+0.97%	$9,878	$9,974	68	28%	-	+$96	-17.4%	9.8h	✓	-
48	ARM	+0.45%	$5,075	$5,098	67	31%	-	+$23	-53.7%	10.4h	✓	-
49	QQQ	+0.40%	$11,324	$11,370	65	29%	-	+$45	-9.3%	11.6h	✓	-
50	DKNG	+0.35%	$12,389	$12,433	73	26%	-	+$43	-25.0%	11.5h	✓	-
51	KO	+0.33%	$10,578	$10,612	62	32%	-	+$35	-6.4%	13.1h	✓	-
52	SPY	+0.16%	$11,038	$11,056	67	30%	-	+$18	-6.4%	9.3h	✓	-
53	XLF	+0.09%	$10,781	$10,790	69	32%	-	+$10	-6.8%	10.7h	✓	-
54	SQQQ	-0.80%	$11,307	$11,217	68	28%	-	-$90	-27.4%	9.4h	✓	-
55	SOXL	-0.90%	$10,030	$9,940	58	31%	-	-$90	-51.2%	11.0h	✓	-
56	MCD	-0.94%	$8,803	$8,720	74	30%	-	-$83	-16.7%	11.1h	✓	-
57	COP	-1.01%	$10,668	$10,560	73	27%	-	-$108	-13.6%	9.7h	✓	-
58	TLT	-1.19%	$9,645	$9,531	71	32%	-	-$115	-7.1%	12.0h	✓	-
59	AAPL	-1.22%	$9,182	$9,070	69	23%	-	-$112	-16.9%	8.9h	✓	-
60	PFE	-1.31%	$8,644	$8,531	68	31%	-	-$113	-20.1%	11.0h	✓	-
61	ACN	-1.58%	$10,095	$9,935	70	29%	-	-$159	-7.8%	11.9h	✓	-
62	MA	-1.98%	$10,823	$10,608	71	17%	-	-$214	-9.3%	9.0h	✓	-
63	ADBE	-2.06%	$9,080	$8,893	71	38%	-	-$187	-20.5%	12.0h	✓	-
64	IWM	-2.10%	$11,547	$11,305	72	25%	-	-$242	-8.0%	9.6h	✓	-
65	ISRG	-2.35%	$11,068	$10,808	68	29%	-	-$260	-10.1%	11.6h	✓	-
66	TMO	-2.36%	$10,203	$9,962	73	30%	-	-$241	-14.5%	9.4h	✓	-
67	GME	-2.66%	$14,925	$14,528	73	23%	-	-$397	-22.2%	8.2h	✓	-
68	REGN	-3.10%	$6,851	$6,638	72	28%	-	-$212	-33.9%	8.9h	✓	-
69	WMT	-3.17%	$14,014	$13,570	68	31%	-	-$444	-6.4%	14.1h	✓	-
70	GLD	-3.23%	$13,539	$13,102	70	30%	-	-$437	-6.1%	12.6h	✓	-
71	V	-3.54%	$9,385	$9,053	70	29%	-	-$332	-12.2%	10.0h	✓	-
72	IBM	-3.73%	$9,441	$9,088	70	34%	-	-$352	-12.8%	9.8h	✓	-
73	PANW	-3.82%	$13,483	$12,968	65	31%	-	-$515	-10.2%	10.2h	✓	-
74	VZ	-3.89%	$8,643	$8,307	69	23%	-	-$336	-22.5%	13.2h	✓	-
75	GILD	-3.93%	$9,370	$9,002	70	23%	-	-$368	-19.1%	8.9h	✓	-
76	MS	-3.97%	$11,102	$10,661	73	34%	-	-$441	-12.1%	8.7h	✓	-
77	BLK	-4.53%	$12,166	$11,615	69	26%	-	-$551	-8.6%	12.4h	✓	-
78	CMCSA	-4.72%	$10,936	$10,420	73	32%	-	-$516	-8.3%	10.3h	✓	-
79	TQQQ	-5.00%	$9,523	$9,046	65	29%	-	-$476	-36.1%	10.2h	✓	-
80	MSFT	-5.02%	$10,454	$9,929	72	29%	-	-$525	-19.0%	11.5h	✓	-
81	JPM	-5.15%	$12,667	$12,015	67	24%	-	-$652	-9.6%	10.5h	✓	-
82	NET	-5.41%	$10,005	$9,464	68	28%	-	-$541	-27.1%	9.4h	✓	-
83	PYPL	-5.83%	$10,221	$9,625	67	25%	-	-$596	-14.2%	12.0h	✓	-
84	META	-5.90%	$9,363	$8,810	72	24%	-	-$552	-28.5%	9.8h	✓	-
85	BMY	-6.14%	$9,232	$8,665	73	22%	-	-$567	-14.5%	9.3h	✓	-
86	AVGO	-6.16%	$11,215	$10,524	69	30%	-	-$691	-26.2%	12.5h	✓	-
87	OXY	-6.37%	$10,279	$9,624	73	26%	-	-$655	-14.1%	11.1h	✓	-
88	SMCI	-6.94%	$14,651	$13,635	72	19%	-	-$1,017	-43.0%	10.0h	✓	-
89	UVXY	-6.95%	$17,411	$16,201	76	17%	-	-$1,210	-23.5%	7.4h	✓	-
90	NFLX	-7.30%	$11,640	$10,790	71	35%	-	-$850	-13.6%	11.4h	✓	-
91	CRM	-7.99%	$13,001	$11,963	73	26%	-	-$1,039	-15.0%	9.6h	✓	-
92	INTC	-8.13%	$10,612	$9,749	74	26%	-	-$863	-21.5%	7.8h	✓	-
93	SPXU	-10.41%	$9,426	$8,444	39	23%	-	-$981	-29.7%	20.5h	✓	-
94	DIS	-10.47%	$10,150	$9,087	74	27%	-	-$1,063	-15.9%	8.6h	✓	-
95	PLTR	-11.85%	$19,917	$17,557	71	30%	-	-$2,360	-23.6%	12.0h	✓	-
96	NVDA	-14.02%	$11,839	$10,180	75	23%	-	-$1,660	-30.4%	9.6h	✓	-
97	NIO	-16.19%	$6,965	$5,837	69	25%	-	-$1,128	-42.7%	8.8h	✓	-
98	AMD	-19.47%	$9,180	$7,393	71	25%	-	-$1,787	-38.6%	8.9h	✓	-
99	SNOW	-19.68%	$10,346	$8,310	75	24%	-	-$2,036	-21.1%	10.3h	✓	-
100	RBLX	-21.62%	$12,303	$9,643	76	25%	-	-$2,660	-23.0%	10.9h	✓	-
101	VXX	-24.16%	$11,233	$8,519	77	14%	-	-$2,714	-42.2%	8.2h	✓	-
102	AMC	-27.20%	$4,991	$3,633	73	12%	-	-$1,358	-67.5%	9.0h	✓	-

👤 Personality

Zen-like patience. Never chases trades. Believes rushing leads to ruin. Speaks slowly and deliberately. Has been known to wait months for the perfect entry.