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Grace Crossover
2

Grace Crossover

The Patient One

📊 Swing Trader 📅 66 years old (Born 1960)

"The fast moving average is the heartbeat. The slow moving average is the breath. When heartbeat crosses breath, the market has made its decision."

Elegant woman in her mid-60s with silver hair in a neat bun. Minimalist wardrobe—black turtleneck, simple silver watch. Her desk is immaculate, containing only what is essential.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

Jun 17, 2024 Jun 17, 2026 (730d)

📊 2 Years Performance: We gave Grace Crossover $10,000 and let him trade 102 stock symbols from Jan 1, 2024 to today. 🟢 LIVE

$11,284
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $10,000 (+$1,284)
+12.84%
2-Year ROI
30.8%
Win Rate
27,561
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

+0.4%
1 Month
+2.4%
3 Months
+2.6%
6 Months
+2.3%
YTD
+5.7%
1 Year

Equity Curve (2 Years)

Combined P&L across all 102 symbols

⚙️ Trading Strategy

EMA crossover - 9 EMA crossing 21 EMA signals entry

Monitors the 9-period and 21-period Exponential Moving Averages. When the fast EMA (9) crosses above the slow EMA (21), it signals bullish momentum and triggers a buy. The opposite cross triggers a sell.

🎯 Best Suited For

Stocks with clean trending behavior

"The trend is your friend until it bends."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets trend roughly 30% of the time—but that's where the big money is made. The crossover filters out noise and identifies when momentum has genuinely shifted.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php

📊 Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMAt = (Close × k) + (EMAt-1 × (1 - k))
Unlike SMA, EMA weighs recent prices more heavily. The multiplier k controls sensitivity.
k = Smoothing Factor = 2 ÷ (Period + 1)
For 9 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 10 = 0.20 (20% weight to current price)
For 21 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 22 ≈ 0.0909 (9.09% weight to current price)
First EMA = SMA of first n periods (seeding)
📚 Robert Goodell Brown's "Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction" (1963)

📊 Golden Cross (Buy Signal)

Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≤ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t > EMAslow,t)
The moment the fast EMA crosses ABOVE the slow EMA indicates bullish momentum shift.
EMA_fast = 9-period EMA (the "heartbeat")
EMA_slow = 21-period EMA (the "breath")
Cross detected: previous bar fast ≤ slow, current bar fast > slow
📚 Richard Donchian's trend-following system (1960s)

📊 Death Cross (Sell Signal)

Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≥ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t < EMAslow,t)
The moment the fast EMA crosses BELOW the slow EMA indicates bearish momentum shift.
Fast EMA falls below slow EMA = trend reversal
Exit signal overrides hold, even if target not reached
📚 Classic technical analysis, popularized by John Murphy

📉 Exit Conditions

• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.08 (+8% gain)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.95 (-5% loss)
• DEATH_CROSS: Fast EMA crosses below Slow EMA
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 60 days

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

FAST_EMA_PERIOD: 9
SLOW_EMA_PERIOD: 21
TARGET_GAIN_PCT: 8%
STOP_LOSS_PCT: -5%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS: 60
STARTING_CAPITAL: 10000

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: Richard Donchian, Father of Trend Following

Richard Donchian began trading in the 1930s but didn't formalize his moving average crossover systems until the 1960s. His insight was profound: you don't need to predict where markets will go—you only need to recognize when they've started going there.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 2 Years: Jun 17, 2024 Jun 17, 2026 (730 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite   60+ Good   40+ Fair   <40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot   60+ Active   40+ Moderate   <40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →
Rank Symbol Score Mom Return Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund Action
1 SOFI 50 6🧊 +140.53% $10,000 $24,053 258 38% - +$14,053 -22.8% 11.5h -
2 RIVN 40 18🧊 +127.14% $10,000 $22,715 273 36% - +$12,715 -33.5% 10.9h -
3 PLTR 42 7🧊 +113.72% $10,000 $21,372 269 31% - +$11,372 -23.6% 12.0h -
4 MARA 33 28 +96.93% $10,000 $19,693 283 30% - +$9,693 -35.1% 9.9h -
5 PANW 50 33 +69.08% $10,000 $16,908 269 33% - +$6,908 -10.2% 10.2h -
6 GME 32 69🔥 +64.81% $10,000 $16,481 287 28% - +$6,481 -22.2% 8.2h -
7 HOOD 32 23 +60.98% $10,000 $16,098 270 31% - +$6,098 -21.5% 10.9h -
8 LCID 30 7🧊 +59.43% $10,000 $15,943 275 25% - +$5,943 -23.9% 10.4h -
9 UVXY 29 40 +55.24% $10,000 $15,524 291 26% - +$5,524 -23.5% 7.4h -
10 SCHW 54 36 +53.59% $10,000 $15,359 263 38% - +$5,359 -6.9% 10.9h -
11 GS 44 17🧊 +53.45% $10,000 $15,345 271 35% - +$5,345 -8.5% 10.1h -
12 CSCO 59 12🧊 +51.54% $10,000 $15,154 267 36% - +$5,154 -5.8% 11.6h -
13 XLK 38 47 +46.05% $10,000 $14,605 261 36% - +$4,605 -13.1% 10.5h -
14 PM 57 9🧊 +45.57% $10,000 $14,557 257 30% - +$4,557 -4.1% 12.3h -
15 WMT 49 11🧊 +44.28% $10,000 $14,429 267 34% - +$4,429 -6.4% 14.1h -
16 CRWD 29 7🧊 +43.96% $10,000 $14,396 260 34% - +$4,396 -20.9% 11.7h -
17 LLY 33 26 +41.82% $10,000 $14,182 275 33% - +$4,182 -13.5% 10.7h -
18 USO 31 9🧊 +38.85% $10,000 $13,885 263 36% - +$3,885 -11.7% 10.8h -
19 RIOT 23 9 +35.39% $10,000 $13,539 269 29% - +$3,539 -34.2% 9.1h -
20 WFC 33 55🔥 +35.37% $10,000 $13,537 268 33% - +$3,537 -10.6% 11.2h -
21 GLD 44 5🧊 +34.70% $10,000 $13,470 260 35% - +$3,470 -6.1% 12.6h -
22 AMGN 42 36 +33.08% $10,000 $13,308 284 33% - +$3,308 -5.9% 10.1h -
23 SNOW 24 66🔥 +30.68% $10,000 $13,068 273 31% - +$3,068 -21.1% 10.3h -
24 SMCI 21 46🔥 +30.27% $10,000 $13,027 279 27% - +$3,027 -43.0% 10.0h -
25 CVX 31 9🧊 +29.60% $10,000 $12,960 273 31% - +$2,960 -10.7% 11.2h -
26 VRTX 31 6🧊 +28.83% $10,000 $12,883 275 33% - +$2,883 -9.6% 11.3h -
27 DKNG 22 31 +27.58% $10,000 $12,758 284 34% - +$2,758 -25.0% 11.5h -
28 GOOGL 23 24 +26.91% $10,000 $12,691 270 33% - +$2,691 -22.4% 10.5h -
29 MRK 25 60🔥 +24.44% $10,000 $12,444 268 33% - +$2,444 -15.0% 11.4h -
30 JPM 27 17 +23.90% $10,000 $12,390 278 29% - +$2,390 -9.6% 10.5h -
31 CRM 23 23 +23.32% $10,000 $12,332 283 28% - +$2,332 -15.0% 9.6h -
32 ARKK 24 39 +22.39% $10,000 $12,239 266 32% - +$2,239 -13.9% 11.5h -
33 SLV 23 5 +22.05% $10,000 $12,205 264 32% - +$2,205 -14.1% 11.3h -
34 IWM 27 41 +20.14% $10,000 $12,014 272 29% - +$2,014 -8.0% 9.6h -
35 XOM 28 16 +19.20% $10,000 $11,920 273 32% - +$1,920 -7.7% 11.2h -
36 MU 17 22 +18.99% $10,000 $11,899 251 30% - +$1,899 -48.4% 10.8h -
37 SQQQ 17 34 +17.60% $10,000 $11,760 272 29% - +$1,760 -27.4% 9.4h -
38 MS 22 12 +16.74% $10,000 $11,674 272 35% - +$1,674 -12.1% 8.7h -
39 AXP 20 29 +16.68% $10,000 $11,668 274 32% - +$1,668 -17.9% 10.5h -
40 PEP 27 9 +15.71% $10,000 $11,571 268 34% - +$1,571 -6.0% 11.3h -
41 NFLX 19 9 +15.01% $10,000 $11,501 277 33% - +$1,501 -13.6% 11.4h -
42 QQQ 24 11 +14.95% $10,000 $11,495 259 34% - +$1,495 -9.3% 11.6h -
43 INTC 17 9 +14.15% $10,000 $11,415 281 27% - +$1,415 -21.5% 7.8h -
44 SOXL 16 14 +13.67% $10,000 $11,367 258 33% - +$1,367 -51.2% 11.0h -
45 MA 21 33 +11.82% $10,000 $11,182 277 28% - +$1,182 -9.3% 9.0h -
46 BAC 17 21 +10.46% $10,000 $11,046 266 34% - +$1,046 -19.3% 10.2h -
47 COIN 15 9 +9.58% $10,000 $10,958 276 29% - +$958 -23.0% 10.2h -
48 VOO 23 10 +8.90% $10,000 $10,890 265 32% - +$890 -4.8% 8.9h -
49 SPY 20 11 +8.76% $10,000 $10,876 263 32% - +$876 -6.4% 9.3h -
50 C 15 7 +8.70% $10,000 $10,870 270 33% - +$870 -16.6% 10.1h -
51 BLK 18 9 +8.28% $10,000 $10,828 266 36% - +$828 -8.6% 12.4h -
52 COST 18 9 +8.17% $10,000 $10,817 276 29% - +$817 -8.3% 12.2h -
53 SLB 14 44🔥 +6.83% $10,000 $10,683 275 33% - +$683 -17.0% 9.5h -
54 NVDA 14 9 +5.98% $10,000 $10,598 271 30% - +$598 -30.4% 9.6h -
55 XLF 16 36🔥 +5.91% $10,000 $10,591 274 32% - +$591 -6.8% 10.7h -
56 MSFT 13 31 +5.57% $10,000 $10,557 269 32% - +$557 -19.0% 11.5h -
57 COP 15 9 +4.79% $10,000 $10,479 276 30% - +$479 -13.6% 9.7h -
58 KO 14 7 +4.76% $10,000 $10,476 260 31% - +$476 -6.4% 13.1h -
59 AVGO 11 9 +4.23% $10,000 $10,423 266 32% - +$423 -26.2% 12.5h -
60 PG 14 9 +3.44% $10,000 $10,344 270 24% - +$344 -4.6% 11.1h -
61 JNJ 10 26 +1.76% $10,000 $10,176 265 30% - +$176 -10.9% 11.3h -
62 ABBV 8 9 +1.66% $10,000 $10,166 277 32% - +$166 -20.2% 10.6h -
63 ISRG 14 25 +1.11% $10,000 $10,111 266 31% - +$111 -10.1% 11.6h -
64 XLE 7 25 +0.71% $10,000 $10,071 279 32% - +$71 -13.2% 11.6h -
65 DIA 6 17 +0.41% $10,000 $10,041 264 28% - +$41 -8.0% 11.1h -
66 HD 4 45🔥 -0.02% $10,000 $9,998 271 29% - -$2 -11.0% 10.3h -
67 ORCL 5 7 -0.54% $10,000 $9,946 258 34% - -$54 -31.9% 11.8h -
68 UNH 5 7 -0.61% $10,000 $9,939 269 32% - -$61 -17.4% 9.8h -
69 CMCSA 5 9 -2.80% $10,000 $9,720 275 32% - -$280 -8.3% 10.3h -
70 VTI 5 9 -3.23% $10,000 $9,677 267 30% - -$323 -11.1% 8.5h -
71 META 5 9 -4.32% $10,000 $9,568 281 30% - -$432 -28.5% 9.8h -
72 DIS 4 9 -4.56% $10,000 $9,544 279 29% - -$456 -15.9% 8.6h -
73 BIIB 5 17 -5.00% $10,000 $9,500 283 28% - -$500 -21.8% 9.1h -
74 BMY 4 33🔥 -6.35% $10,000 $9,365 274 29% - -$635 -14.5% 9.3h -
75 AMD 5 48🔥 -7.35% $10,000 $9,265 276 29% - -$735 -38.6% 8.9h -
76 PYPL 4 9 -8.81% $10,000 $9,119 256 30% - -$881 -14.2% 12.0h -
77 V 3 56🔥 -9.20% $10,000 $9,080 271 30% - -$920 -12.2% 10.0h -
78 TLT 3 7 -9.58% $10,000 $9,042 267 32% - -$958 -7.1% 12.0h -
79 BRK-B 4 9 -9.67% $10,000 $9,033 275 23% - -$967 -16.1% 10.0h -
80 AMZN 5 6 -10.76% $10,000 $8,924 272 33% - -$1,076 -24.3% 11.0h -
81 TMO 5 38🔥 -12.06% $10,000 $8,794 283 27% - -$1,206 -14.5% 9.4h -
82 AAPL 4 40🔥 -13.15% $10,000 $8,685 271 28% - -$1,315 -16.9% 8.9h -
83 RBLX 4 7 -14.87% $10,000 $8,513 276 32% - -$1,487 -23.0% 10.9h -
84 TQQQ 4 9 -15.13% $10,000 $8,487 265 32% - -$1,513 -36.1% 10.2h -
85 MCD 4 14 -15.30% $10,000 $8,470 276 30% - -$1,530 -16.7% 11.1h -
86 VZ 4 28🔥 -15.73% $10,000 $8,427 270 28% - -$1,573 -22.5% 13.2h -
87 MDT 4 6 -16.20% $10,000 $8,380 268 24% - -$1,620 -12.9% 12.0h -
88 PFE 4 27🔥 -16.67% $10,000 $8,333 274 29% - -$1,667 -20.1% 11.0h -
89 OXY 4 9 -17.74% $10,000 $8,226 275 31% - -$1,774 -14.1% 11.1h -
90 IBM 5 9 -18.29% $10,000 $8,171 267 34% - -$1,829 -12.8% 9.8h -
91 ACN 4 6 -18.40% $10,000 $8,160 272 32% - -$1,840 -7.8% 11.9h -
92 NET 5 9 -18.67% $10,000 $8,133 271 29% - -$1,867 -27.1% 9.4h -
93 VXX 4 9 -21.96% $10,000 $7,804 289 24% - -$2,196 -42.2% 8.2h -
94 GILD 3 6 -22.18% $10,000 $7,782 275 25% - -$2,218 -19.1% 8.9h -
95 SPXU 2 9 -24.87% $10,000 $7,513 121 27% - -$2,487 -29.7% 20.5h -
96 TSLA 3 6 -27.79% $10,000 $7,221 274 32% - -$2,779 -26.6% 10.7h -
97 ADBE 4 9 -31.62% $10,000 $6,838 284 31% - -$3,162 -20.5% 12.0h -
98 ARM 3 88🔥 -34.72% $10,000 $6,528 266 32% - -$3,472 -53.7% 10.4h -
99 MRNA 4 41🔥 -38.32% $10,000 $6,168 285 29% - -$3,832 -67.6% 11.1h -
100 REGN 2 9 -46.50% $10,000 $5,350 277 23% - -$4,650 -33.9% 8.9h -
101 NIO 2 9 -51.50% $10,000 $4,850 271 28% - -$5,150 -42.7% 8.8h -
102 AMC 2 45🔥 -55.71% $10,000 $4,429 296 20% - -$5,571 -67.5% 9.0h -

👤 Personality

Zen-like patience. Never chases trades. Believes rushing leads to ruin. Speaks slowly and deliberately. Has been known to wait months for the perfect entry.