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Crasher Macro
41

Crasher Macro

The Fear Whisperer

🌍 Crypto Native (Oracle-Derived) 📅 0 years old (Born 2026)

"When the world panics, crypto crashes harder — and bounces faster. Macro fear is the signal."

A macro-aware trader surrounded by Bloomberg terminals showing VIX charts, yield curves, and credit spreads. Wears a Fed hoodie under a crypto jacket.

📊 View Performance: 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months YTD 1 Year 2 Years
Feb 14, 2024 Feb 14, 2026 (731 days)
🎯 Asset Class: Crypto 6 ⚠️ Crypto has 0.25% trading fees - results reflect fee impact

📊 2 Years Performance: We gave Crasher Macro $10,000 and let her trade 6 crypto symbols from Jan 4, 2024 to today. 🟢 LIVE

$14,894
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $10,000 (+$4,894)
+48.94%
2-Year ROI
69.9%
Win Rate
69
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

+0.0%
1 Month
-1.1%
3 Months
-1.1%
6 Months
+0.0%
YTD
+14.5%
1 Year

Equity Curve (2 Years)

Combined P&L across all 6 symbols

💰 Trading Activity (2 Years)

Stock Volume
$0
0 trades
Stock Fees
$0
✓ Commission FREE
Crypto Volume
$845,436
69 trades
Crypto Fees
$2,114
0.25% of volume

⚠️ Important Note: This simulation tests each symbol with its own $10K account (not pooled). Crypto symbols can show 40-75%+ fee drag due to high trade frequency.

Stocks are FREE on Alpaca, so the ~100 stock symbols have zero fee impact.

⚙️ Trading Strategy

Crasher's crash-bounce thesis gated by FRED macro stress signals

Same momentum crash entry as Crasher, but only trades when macro stress is elevated: VIX > 25 OR High-Yield credit spread > 75th percentile. The FRED overlay analysis proved VIX at winning entries is consistently higher than at losing entries.

🎯 Best Suited For

Crypto crash bounces during macro stress — VIX predicts winners (delta +1.82 to +4.30 across altcoins)

"The VIX doesn't lie. When fear screams, the bounce is loudest."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Macro stress creates correlated selling across all assets. When VIX spikes, institutional de-risking forces crypto down faster — but the bounce is also faster because crypto isn't the source of the fear. Macro fear = better entry quality.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php

📊 Entry Signal

📈 Entry Signal

Momentum crash + macro stress gate passes
→ BUY at current price

📉 Exit Conditions (same as Crasher)

• TIME_EXIT: Hold for exactly N hours (24h or 48h per asset)
• NO STOP LOSS
• NO TARGET

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

FEE_PCT: 0.25%
ROUND_TRIP_FEE: 0.5
VIX_THRESHOLD: 25
SPREAD_PERCENTILE: 75
FRED_SERIES: VIXCLS, BAMLH0A0HYM2

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: Oracle Experiment 1 — FRED macro overlay analysis revealing VIX and credit spreads predict crash-bounce winners

Born February 2026 from Oracle Experiment 1. After building the FRED data pipeline (VIX, yields, credit spreads, unemployment), the macro overlay analysis showed VIX elevation at crash entry predicts significantly better bounce outcomes.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 2 Years: Feb 14, 2024 Feb 14, 2026 (731 days)
Rank Symbol Return Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund
1 DOGEUSD +98.67% $10,000 $19,867 12 75% $975 +$9,867 -0.0% 0.0h -
2 XRPUSD +54.89% $10,000 $15,489 20 65% $1,430 +$5,489 -0.0% 0.0h -
3 ETHUSD +54.47% $10,000 $15,447 10 80% $690 +$5,447 -0.0% 0.0h -
4 AVAXUSD +41.33% $10,000 $14,133 6 83% $383 +$4,133 -0.0% 0.0h -
5 SOLUSD +35.07% $10,000 $13,507 5 60% $362 +$3,507 -0.0% 0.0h -
6 BTCUSD +9.18% $10,000 $10,918 16 56% $971 +$918 -0.0% 0.0h -

👤 Personality

Worldly, reads the Financial Times before checking crypto prices. Speaks about macro regimes and credit conditions. Believes crypto doesn't exist in a vacuum.