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Grace Crossover
2

Grace Crossover

The Patient One

📊 Swing Trader 📅 66 years old (Born 1960)

"The fast moving average is the heartbeat. The slow moving average is the breath. When heartbeat crosses breath, the market has made its decision."

Elegant woman in her mid-60s with silver hair in a neat bun. Minimalist wardrobe—black turtleneck, simple silver watch. Her desk is immaculate, containing only what is essential.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

Jan 1, 2026 Jun 16, 2026 (165d)

📊 Year to Date Performance: Showing Grace Crossover's performance over the year to date across 102 stock symbols. 🟢 LIVE

$11,322
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $11,028 (+$294)
+2.67%
Year to Date ROI
33.1%
Win Rate
5,454
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

+0.7%
1 Month
+2.7%
3 Months
+2.9%
6 Months
+2.7%
YTD
+5.9%
1 Year

Equity Curve (Year to Date)

Combined P&L across all 102 symbols

⚙️ Trading Strategy

EMA crossover - 9 EMA crossing 21 EMA signals entry

Monitors the 9-period and 21-period Exponential Moving Averages. When the fast EMA (9) crosses above the slow EMA (21), it signals bullish momentum and triggers a buy. The opposite cross triggers a sell.

🎯 Best Suited For

Stocks with clean trending behavior

"The trend is your friend until it bends."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets trend roughly 30% of the time—but that's where the big money is made. The crossover filters out noise and identifies when momentum has genuinely shifted.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php

📊 Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMAt = (Close × k) + (EMAt-1 × (1 - k))
Unlike SMA, EMA weighs recent prices more heavily. The multiplier k controls sensitivity.
k = Smoothing Factor = 2 ÷ (Period + 1)
For 9 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 10 = 0.20 (20% weight to current price)
For 21 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 22 ≈ 0.0909 (9.09% weight to current price)
First EMA = SMA of first n periods (seeding)
📚 Robert Goodell Brown's "Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction" (1963)

📊 Golden Cross (Buy Signal)

Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≤ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t > EMAslow,t)
The moment the fast EMA crosses ABOVE the slow EMA indicates bullish momentum shift.
EMA_fast = 9-period EMA (the "heartbeat")
EMA_slow = 21-period EMA (the "breath")
Cross detected: previous bar fast ≤ slow, current bar fast > slow
📚 Richard Donchian's trend-following system (1960s)

📊 Death Cross (Sell Signal)

Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≥ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t < EMAslow,t)
The moment the fast EMA crosses BELOW the slow EMA indicates bearish momentum shift.
Fast EMA falls below slow EMA = trend reversal
Exit signal overrides hold, even if target not reached
📚 Classic technical analysis, popularized by John Murphy

📉 Exit Conditions

• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.08 (+8% gain)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.95 (-5% loss)
• DEATH_CROSS: Fast EMA crosses below Slow EMA
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 60 days

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

FAST_EMA_PERIOD: 9
SLOW_EMA_PERIOD: 21
TARGET_GAIN_PCT: 8%
STOP_LOSS_PCT: -5%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS: 60
STARTING_CAPITAL: 10000

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: Richard Donchian, Father of Trend Following

Richard Donchian began trading in the 1930s but didn't formalize his moving average crossover systems until the 1960s. His insight was profound: you don't need to predict where markets will go—you only need to recognize when they've started going there.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (Year to Date)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (Year to Date)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 Year to Date: Jan 1, 2026 Jun 16, 2026 (165 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite   60+ Good   40+ Fair   <40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot   60+ Active   40+ Moderate   <40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →
Rank Symbol Score Mom Return YTD Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund Action
1 SNOW 24 66🔥 +51.06% $8,748 $13,215 49 31% - +$4,467 -21.1% 10.3h -
2 MRNA 4 17 +48.94% $4,141 $6,168 58 41% - +$2,027 -67.6% 11.1h -
3 MU 17 22 +31.80% $9,080 $11,967 55 44% - +$2,887 -48.4% 10.8h -
4 PANW 51 33 +30.82% $13,071 $17,100 47 43% - +$4,029 -10.2% 10.2h -
5 USO 34 9🧊 +29.00% $10,763 $13,885 54 41% - +$3,121 -11.7% 10.8h -
6 ARM 3 88🔥 +27.04% $5,294 $6,725 52 40% - +$1,431 -53.7% 10.4h -
7 RIVN 40 22 +22.82% $18,494 $22,715 52 40% - +$4,220 -33.5% 10.9h -
8 SOXL 16 12 +22.59% $9,578 $11,741 51 39% - +$2,164 -51.2% 11.0h -
9 XLK 38 47 +22.05% $12,016 $14,666 47 47% - +$2,650 -13.1% 10.5h -
10 MRK 25 60🔥 +20.03% $10,382 $12,461 55 42% - +$2,079 -15.0% 11.4h -
11 CSCO 60 16🧊 +19.57% $12,750 $15,246 51 39% - +$2,495 -5.8% 11.6h -
12 CVX 31 9🧊 +19.56% $10,881 $13,009 54 41% - +$2,128 -10.7% 11.2h -
13 ARKK 24 39 +15.96% $10,554 $12,239 54 37% - +$1,684 -13.9% 11.5h -
14 WFC 33 48 +15.72% $11,698 $13,537 50 40% - +$1,839 -10.6% 11.2h -
15 AMC 2 45🔥 +15.46% $3,836 $4,429 62 26% - +$593 -67.5% 9.0h -
16 LCID 31 6🧊 +15.31% $13,826 $15,943 54 30% - +$2,117 -23.9% 10.4h -
17 GME 33 69🔥 +13.95% $14,498 $16,520 59 32% - +$2,022 -22.2% 8.2h -
18 DKNG 23 35 +13.60% $11,230 $12,758 59 32% - +$1,527 -25.0% 11.5h -
19 INTC 17 9 +13.01% $10,089 $11,402 53 26% - +$1,313 -21.5% 7.8h -
20 GOOGL 23 24 +12.90% $11,277 $12,732 53 40% - +$1,455 -22.4% 10.5h -
21 SCHW 55 36 +12.45% $13,685 $15,389 49 47% - +$1,704 -6.9% 10.9h -
22 ORCL 5 6 +11.10% $8,955 $9,949 47 45% - +$994 -31.9% 11.8h -
23 LLY 32 25 +10.54% $12,830 $14,182 52 38% - +$1,352 -13.5% 10.7h -
24 PLTR 42 7🧊 +10.40% $18,966 $20,938 52 27% - +$1,972 -23.6% 12.0h -
25 AMD 5 48🔥 +10.24% $8,490 $9,360 54 41% - +$869 -38.6% 8.9h -
26 XOM 28 18 +9.89% $10,847 $11,920 52 44% - +$1,073 -7.7% 11.2h -
27 ABBV 8 9 +9.56% $9,308 $10,197 58 33% - +$890 -20.2% 10.6h -
28 META 5 9 +9.21% $8,785 $9,594 54 35% - +$809 -28.5% 9.8h -
29 BAC 17 21 +8.58% $10,173 $11,046 47 45% - +$873 -19.3% 10.2h -
30 SMCI 23 68🔥 +8.11% $12,559 $13,578 51 27% - +$1,019 -43.0% 10.0h -
31 MSFT 14 38🔥 +6.97% $9,869 $10,557 52 40% - +$688 -19.0% 11.5h -
32 JNJ 10 26 +6.97% $9,572 $10,239 50 38% - +$667 -10.9% 11.3h -
33 GS 44 17🧊 +6.64% $14,087 $15,022 54 37% - +$935 -8.5% 10.1h -
34 SQQQ 17 34 +6.32% $10,762 $11,442 54 31% - +$680 -27.4% 9.4h -
35 HD 4 45🔥 +5.75% $9,423 $9,965 52 31% - +$542 -11.0% 10.3h -
36 MA 20 24 +5.07% $10,643 $11,182 57 33% - +$540 -9.3% 9.0h -
37 IWM 28 41 +4.97% $11,445 $12,014 53 30% - +$569 -8.0% 9.6h -
38 AVGO 11 9 +4.69% $9,985 $10,454 51 41% - +$468 -26.2% 12.5h -
39 VRTX 30 6🧊 +4.60% $12,377 $12,946 53 30% - +$569 -9.6% 11.3h -
40 BMY 4 43🔥 +4.22% $8,986 $9,365 52 37% - +$379 -14.5% 9.3h -
41 PM 58 9🧊 +4.18% $13,973 $14,557 47 36% - +$584 -4.1% 12.3h -
42 AXP 19 29 +4.18% $10,955 $11,413 55 35% - +$458 -17.9% 10.5h -
43 XLE 7 26 +4.18% $9,667 $10,071 57 44% - +$404 -13.2% 11.6h -
44 NFLX 22 11 +4.11% $11,047 $11,501 55 35% - +$454 -13.6% 11.4h -
45 WMT 48 6🧊 +3.74% $13,908 $14,429 50 38% - +$520 -6.4% 14.1h -
46 UNH 5 7 +3.68% $9,648 $10,003 51 31% - +$355 -17.4% 9.8h -
47 MARA 33 31 +3.23% $19,077 $19,693 56 36% - +$616 -35.1% 9.9h -
48 BIIB 5 23 +2.78% $9,243 $9,500 57 33% - +$257 -21.8% 9.1h -
49 MS 22 12 +2.65% $11,373 $11,674 51 45% - +$301 -12.1% 8.7h -
50 AMGN 44 45 +2.26% $13,014 $13,308 63 29% - +$294 -5.9% 10.1h -
51 BRK-B 4 13 +2.06% $8,859 $9,042 51 27% - +$183 -16.1% 10.0h -
52 PFE 4 27🔥 +1.69% $8,237 $8,377 55 40% - +$139 -20.1% 11.0h -
53 DIA 6 17 +1.34% $9,896 $10,029 49 31% - +$133 -8.0% 11.1h -
54 COST 18 9 +0.61% $10,798 $10,863 52 38% - +$66 -8.3% 12.2h -
55 QQQ 23 11 +0.51% $11,481 $11,540 52 38% - +$59 -9.3% 11.6h -
56 ISRG 14 25 -0.24% $10,558 $10,532 51 33% - -$25 -10.1% 11.6h -
57 GLD 43 5🧊 -0.31% $13,512 $13,470 54 33% - -$42 -6.1% 12.6h -
58 VZ 4 28🔥 -0.56% $8,475 $8,427 52 33% - -$47 -22.5% 13.2h -
59 KO 15 6 -0.74% $10,533 $10,455 54 35% - -$78 -6.4% 13.1h -
60 SPY 21 12 -0.81% $10,965 $10,876 54 30% - -$89 -6.4% 9.3h -
61 UVXY 29 40 -0.83% $16,066 $15,933 61 26% - -$133 -23.5% 7.4h -
62 SLV 23 5 -0.85% $12,309 $12,205 50 36% - -$105 -14.1% 11.3h -
63 SOFI 49 6🧊 -1.02% $24,301 $24,053 52 38% - -$248 -22.8% 11.5h -
64 PEP 27 7 -1.17% $11,708 $11,571 55 31% - -$137 -6.0% 11.3h -
65 XLF 15 36🔥 -1.53% $10,755 $10,591 53 38% - -$165 -6.8% 10.7h -
66 VTI 5 9 -1.67% $9,852 $9,687 51 33% - -$165 -11.1% 8.5h -
67 JPM 26 17 -1.99% $12,426 $12,178 53 30% - -$247 -9.6% 10.5h -
68 VOO 23 10 -2.06% $11,158 $10,928 53 34% - -$230 -4.8% 8.9h -
69 NVDA 13 9 -2.11% $10,862 $10,633 50 34% - -$229 -30.4% 9.6h -
70 CRM 23 24 -2.17% $12,605 $12,332 58 31% - -$274 -15.0% 9.6h -
71 MCD 4 23 -2.69% $8,715 $8,481 53 38% - -$234 -16.7% 11.1h -
72 V 3 47🔥 -3.69% $9,274 $8,932 53 32% - -$342 -12.2% 10.0h -
73 AMZN 5 6 -3.90% $9,675 $9,298 53 28% - -$377 -24.3% 11.0h -
74 HOOD 34 45 -4.41% $16,841 $16,098 52 31% - -$743 -21.5% 10.9h -
75 CRWD 29 7🧊 -4.51% $15,375 $14,682 49 33% - -$693 -20.9% 11.7h -
76 DIS 4 9 -4.60% $10,031 $9,570 59 24% - -$461 -15.9% 8.6h -
77 COP 14 9 -4.79% $11,031 $10,502 54 26% - -$528 -13.6% 9.7h -
78 AAPL 4 40🔥 -5.69% $9,224 $8,699 55 31% - -$525 -16.9% 8.9h -
79 TLT 3 7 -5.87% $9,606 $9,042 57 23% - -$564 -7.1% 12.0h -
80 SLB 15 44🔥 -6.35% $11,407 $10,683 53 26% - -$724 -17.0% 9.5h -
81 BLK 18 9 -7.51% $11,788 $10,903 56 30% - -$885 -8.6% 12.4h -
82 RIOT 24 7 -7.77% $14,680 $13,539 54 24% - -$1,141 -34.2% 9.1h -
83 CMCSA 5 9 -8.48% $10,620 $9,720 52 31% - -$901 -8.3% 10.3h -
84 GILD 3 6 -8.74% $8,550 $7,803 56 18% - -$747 -19.1% 8.9h -
85 TMO 5 33🔥 -9.07% $9,671 $8,794 55 33% - -$877 -14.5% 9.4h -
86 MDT 4 6 -9.20% $9,617 $8,732 50 26% - -$885 -12.9% 12.0h -
87 PYPL 4 6 -9.96% $10,127 $9,119 53 21% - -$1,009 -14.2% 12.0h -
88 SPXU 2 9 -10.14% $8,361 $7,513 55 31% - -$848 -29.7% 20.5h -
89 VXX 4 9 -10.42% $8,848 $7,926 58 22% - -$922 -42.2% 8.2h -
90 TQQQ 4 9 -11.46% $9,768 $8,648 54 26% - -$1,119 -36.1% 10.2h -
91 C 14 7 -13.91% $12,408 $10,682 53 25% - -$1,726 -16.6% 10.1h -
92 IBM 5 9 -13.92% $9,508 $8,184 52 31% - -$1,323 -12.8% 9.8h -
93 RBLX 4 6 -15.21% $10,040 $8,513 57 30% - -$1,527 -23.0% 10.9h -
94 OXY 4 9 -15.24% $9,705 $8,226 54 37% - -$1,479 -14.1% 11.1h -
95 PG 14 9 -16.70% $12,486 $10,401 53 15% - -$2,085 -4.6% 11.1h -
96 TSLA 3 6 -17.23% $8,761 $7,251 55 25% - -$1,509 -26.6% 10.7h -
97 REGN 2 9 -19.71% $6,664 $5,350 57 19% - -$1,313 -33.9% 8.9h -
98 NET 5 7 -21.06% $10,327 $8,152 56 25% - -$2,175 -27.1% 9.4h -
99 ACN 4 5 -21.11% $10,344 $8,160 55 20% - -$2,184 -7.8% 11.9h -
100 COIN 16 7 -22.06% $14,127 $11,011 54 30% - -$3,116 -23.0% 10.2h -
101 NIO 2 9 -25.28% $6,537 $4,884 54 22% - -$1,652 -42.7% 8.8h -
102 ADBE 4 7 -28.03% $9,528 $6,858 58 26% - -$2,671 -20.5% 12.0h -

👤 Personality

Zen-like patience. Never chases trades. Believes rushing leads to ruin. Speaks slowly and deliberately. Has been known to wait months for the perfect entry.