Grace Crossover

The Patient One

📊 Swing Trader 📅 66 years old (Born 1960)

"The fast moving average is the heartbeat. The slow moving average is the breath. When heartbeat crosses breath, the market has made its decision."

Elegant woman in her mid-60s with silver hair in a neat bun. Minimalist wardrobe—black turtleneck, simple silver watch. Her desk is immaculate, containing only what is essential.

📊 View Performance: 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months YTD 1 Year 2 Years

Jan 1, 2026 → Feb 14, 2026 (44 days)

🎯 Asset Class: 📈 Stocks 102 ₿ Crypto 12 🌐 All Assets 114

📊 Year to Date Performance: Showing Grace Crossover's performance over the year to date across 102 stock symbols. 🟢 LIVE

$11,116

Avg Value (per symbol)

Started at: $11,035 (+$81)

+0.74%

Year to Date ROI

30.2%

Win Rate

1,580

Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

Equity Curve (Year to Date)

Combined P&L across all 102 symbols

⚙️ Trading Strategy

EMA crossover - 9 EMA crossing 21 EMA signals entry

Monitors the 9-period and 21-period Exponential Moving Averages. When the fast EMA (9) crosses above the slow EMA (21), it signals bullish momentum and triggers a buy. The opposite cross triggers a sell.

🎯 Best Suited For

Stocks with clean trending behavior

"The trend is your friend until it bends."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets trend roughly 30% of the time—but that's where the big money is made. The crossover filters out noise and identifies when momentum has genuinely shifted.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php

📊 Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

                        EMAt = (Close × k) + (EMAt-1 × (1 - k))                    

                        Unlike SMA, EMA weighs recent prices more heavily. The multiplier k controls sensitivity.                    

                            k = Smoothing Factor = 2 ÷ (Period + 1)                        

                            For 9 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 10 = 0.20 (20% weight to current price)                        

                            For 21 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 22 ≈ 0.0909 (9.09% weight to current price)                        

                            First EMA = SMA of first n periods (seeding)

                    📚 Robert Goodell Brown's "Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction" (1963)                

📊 Golden Cross (Buy Signal)

                        Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≤ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t > EMAslow,t)                    

                        The moment the fast EMA crosses ABOVE the slow EMA indicates bullish momentum shift.                    

                            EMA_fast = 9-period EMA (the "heartbeat")                        

                            EMA_slow = 21-period EMA (the "breath")                        

                            Cross detected: previous bar fast ≤ slow, current bar fast > slow

                    📚 Richard Donchian's trend-following system (1960s)                

📊 Death Cross (Sell Signal)

                        Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≥ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t < EMAslow,t)                    

                        The moment the fast EMA crosses BELOW the slow EMA indicates bearish momentum shift.                    

                            Fast EMA falls below slow EMA = trend reversal                        

                            Exit signal overrides hold, even if target not reached

                    📚 Classic technical analysis, popularized by John Murphy                

📉 Exit Conditions

                        • TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.08 (+8% gain)                    

                        • STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.95 (-5% loss)                    

                        • DEATH_CROSS: Fast EMA crosses below Slow EMA                    

                        • MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 60 days                    

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

                        FAST_EMA_PERIOD:
                        9
                    

                        SLOW_EMA_PERIOD:
                        21
                    

                        TARGET_GAIN_PCT:
                        8%
                    

                        STOP_LOSS_PCT:
                        -5%
                    

                        MAX_HOLD_DAYS:
                        60
                    

                        STARTING_CAPITAL:
                        10000
                    

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: Richard Donchian, Father of Trend Following

Richard Donchian began trading in the 1930s but didn't formalize his moving average crossover systems until the 1960s. His insight was profound: you don't need to predict where markets will go—you only need to recognize when they've started going there.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (Year to Date)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (Year to Date)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 Year to Date: Jan 1, 2026 → Feb 14, 2026 (44 days)

Rank	Symbol	Return	YTD Start	Final Value	Trades	Win Rate	Fees	Net	Max DD	Avg Hold	Refunds	Last Refund
1	MRNA	+12.37%	$4,141	$4,653	15	40%	-	+$512	-67.6%	11.1h	✓	-
2	SOFI	+12.19%	$24,300	$27,262	14	50%	-	+$2,962	-22.8%	11.5h	✓	-
3	CVX	+11.26%	$10,881	$12,106	17	41%	-	+$1,225	-10.7%	11.2h	✓	-
4	DKNG	+10.70%	$11,231	$12,433	18	28%	-	+$1,202	-25.0%	11.5h	✓	-
5	MU	+9.84%	$9,080	$9,973	13	46%	-	+$893	-48.4%	10.8h	✓	-
6	SMCI	+8.56%	$12,559	$13,635	15	20%	-	+$1,075	-43.0%	10.0h	✓	-
7	COST	+8.33%	$10,797	$11,697	16	38%	-	+$899	-8.3%	12.2h	✓	-
8	USO	+7.33%	$10,763	$11,552	13	46%	-	+$789	-11.7%	10.8h	✓	-
9	CRWD	+7.25%	$15,374	$16,489	15	40%	-	+$1,115	-20.9%	11.7h	✓	-
10	ABBV	+6.91%	$9,308	$9,951	16	44%	-	+$643	-20.2%	10.6h	✓	-
11	XLE	+6.82%	$9,685	$10,345	17	53%	-	+$660	-13.2%	11.6h	✓	-
12	RIOT	+6.68%	$14,986	$15,987	17	24%	-	+$1,001	-34.2%	9.1h	✓	-
13	HD	+6.04%	$9,423	$9,992	14	36%	-	+$569	-11.0%	10.3h	✓	-
14	BAC	+5.95%	$10,173	$10,778	14	50%	-	+$605	-19.3%	10.2h	✓	-
15	ARKK	+5.84%	$10,555	$11,171	16	25%	-	+$616	-13.9%	11.5h	✓	-
16	MDT	+5.77%	$9,618	$10,173	13	46%	-	+$555	-12.9%	12.0h	✓	-
17	MARA	+5.72%	$19,200	$20,299	16	31%	-	+$1,098	-35.1%	9.9h	✓	-
18	WFC	+5.69%	$11,698	$12,364	15	40%	-	+$666	-10.6%	11.2h	✓	-
19	SCHW	+5.48%	$13,684	$14,434	12	58%	-	+$750	-6.9%	10.9h	✓	-
20	AVGO	+5.40%	$9,985	$10,524	15	47%	-	+$539	-26.2%	12.5h	✓	-
21	GILD	+5.28%	$8,550	$9,002	15	33%	-	+$451	-19.1%	8.9h	✓	-
22	CSCO	+5.13%	$12,825	$13,483	15	33%	-	+$658	-5.8%	11.6h	✓	-
23	XOM	+4.82%	$10,884	$11,409	15	47%	-	+$525	-7.7%	11.2h	✓	-
24	AMGN	+4.78%	$13,014	$13,636	16	38%	-	+$622	-5.9%	10.1h	✓	-
25	VRTX	+4.57%	$12,376	$12,941	15	27%	-	+$566	-9.6%	11.3h	✓	-
26	GS	+4.40%	$14,087	$14,707	16	25%	-	+$620	-8.5%	10.1h	✓	-
27	MRK	+4.24%	$10,381	$10,821	17	53%	-	+$440	-15.0%	11.4h	✓	-
28	SQQQ	+4.22%	$10,762	$11,217	15	33%	-	+$454	-27.4%	9.4h	✓	-
29	BIIB	+4.22%	$9,243	$9,633	15	33%	-	+$390	-21.8%	9.1h	✓	-
30	SOXL	+3.77%	$9,578	$9,940	13	15%	-	+$361	-51.2%	11.0h	✓	-
31	PM	+3.75%	$13,973	$14,497	13	38%	-	+$524	-4.1%	12.3h	✓	-
32	PFE	+3.55%	$8,238	$8,531	14	50%	-	+$292	-20.1%	11.0h	✓	-
33	UNH	+3.37%	$9,649	$9,974	14	29%	-	+$325	-17.4%	9.8h	✓	-
34	JNJ	+3.28%	$9,571	$9,885	15	47%	-	+$314	-10.9%	11.3h	✓	-
35	BRK-B	+3.27%	$8,860	$9,150	15	40%	-	+$290	-16.1%	10.0h	✓	-
36	TMO	+3.00%	$9,672	$9,962	16	38%	-	+$290	-14.5%	9.4h	✓	-
37	LCID	+2.99%	$13,826	$14,239	18	28%	-	+$413	-23.9%	10.4h	✓	-
38	LLY	+2.39%	$12,831	$13,137	15	27%	-	+$307	-13.5%	10.7h	✓	-
39	ISRG	+2.36%	$10,559	$10,808	15	53%	-	+$249	-10.1%	11.6h	✓	-
40	AXP	+1.92%	$10,955	$11,166	16	44%	-	+$210	-17.9%	10.5h	✓	-
41	DIA	+1.87%	$9,897	$10,082	15	40%	-	+$185	-8.0%	11.1h	✓	-
42	PEP	+1.76%	$11,709	$11,915	15	20%	-	+$206	-6.0%	11.3h	✓	-
43	XLK	+1.35%	$12,015	$12,177	15	47%	-	+$162	-13.1%	10.5h	✓	-
44	GOOGL	+1.30%	$11,278	$11,424	16	44%	-	+$147	-22.4%	10.5h	✓	-
45	SPXU	+1.00%	$8,361	$8,444	16	31%	-	+$84	-29.7%	20.5h	✓	-
46	UVXY	+0.84%	$16,066	$16,201	18	11%	-	+$135	-23.5%	7.4h	✓	-
47	SPY	+0.83%	$10,965	$11,056	14	36%	-	+$91	-6.4%	9.3h	✓	-
48	KO	+0.75%	$10,533	$10,612	15	47%	-	+$79	-6.4%	13.1h	✓	-
49	VOO	+0.68%	$11,158	$11,234	15	40%	-	+$76	-4.8%	8.9h	✓	-
50	C	+0.66%	$12,408	$12,490	13	23%	-	+$82	-16.6%	10.1h	✓	-
51	MSFT	+0.61%	$9,869	$9,929	16	38%	-	+$60	-19.0%	11.5h	✓	-
52	XLF	+0.33%	$10,755	$10,790	15	33%	-	+$35	-6.8%	10.7h	✓	-
53	META	+0.29%	$8,785	$8,810	15	33%	-	+$25	-28.5%	9.8h	✓	-
54	SLV	+0.26%	$12,309	$12,341	16	25%	-	+$32	-14.1%	11.3h	✓	-
55	RIVN	+0.24%	$18,640	$18,685	17	24%	-	+$45	-33.5%	10.9h	✓	-
56	GME	+0.21%	$14,498	$14,528	17	24%	-	+$30	-22.2%	8.2h	✓	-
57	MCD	+0.05%	$8,715	$8,720	18	33%	-	+$4	-16.7%	11.1h	✓	-
58	VTI	+0.01%	$9,851	$9,852	13	38%	-	+$1	-11.1%	8.5h	✓	-
59	ORCL	-0.16%	$8,955	$8,941	16	44%	-	-$14	-31.9%	11.8h	✓	-
60	MA	-0.32%	$10,643	$10,608	17	29%	-	-$34	-9.3%	9.0h	✓	-
61	COIN	-0.37%	$14,128	$14,076	15	20%	-	-$52	-23.0%	10.2h	✓	-
62	REGN	-0.38%	$6,664	$6,638	16	25%	-	-$25	-33.9%	8.9h	✓	-
63	TLT	-0.78%	$9,605	$9,531	18	22%	-	-$75	-7.1%	12.0h	✓	-
64	PANW	-0.79%	$13,071	$12,968	12	25%	-	-$103	-10.2%	10.2h	✓	-
65	OXY	-0.83%	$9,704	$9,624	17	35%	-	-$81	-14.1%	11.1h	✓	-
66	QQQ	-0.97%	$11,481	$11,370	15	40%	-	-$111	-9.3%	11.6h	✓	-
67	IWM	-1.23%	$11,446	$11,305	16	19%	-	-$141	-8.0%	9.6h	✓	-
68	BLK	-1.48%	$11,789	$11,615	15	13%	-	-$174	-8.6%	12.4h	✓	-
69	AAPL	-1.67%	$9,224	$9,070	15	20%	-	-$154	-16.9%	8.9h	✓	-
70	CMCSA	-1.90%	$10,621	$10,420	15	27%	-	-$202	-8.3%	10.3h	✓	-
71	VZ	-1.98%	$8,475	$8,307	16	25%	-	-$168	-22.5%	13.2h	✓	-
72	PG	-2.03%	$12,486	$12,233	17	12%	-	-$253	-4.6%	11.1h	✓	-
73	SLB	-2.24%	$11,407	$11,151	15	20%	-	-$256	-17.0%	9.5h	✓	-
74	NFLX	-2.32%	$11,047	$10,790	15	33%	-	-$256	-13.6%	11.4h	✓	-
75	V	-2.39%	$9,275	$9,053	17	18%	-	-$222	-12.2%	10.0h	✓	-
76	WMT	-2.44%	$13,909	$13,570	15	20%	-	-$339	-6.4%	14.1h	✓	-
77	AMZN	-2.56%	$9,675	$9,427	16	13%	-	-$248	-24.3%	11.0h	✓	-
78	GLD	-3.04%	$13,513	$13,102	18	28%	-	-$411	-6.1%	12.6h	✓	-
79	JPM	-3.31%	$12,426	$12,015	14	21%	-	-$411	-9.6%	10.5h	✓	-
80	INTC	-3.37%	$10,089	$9,749	15	27%	-	-$340	-21.5%	7.8h	✓	-
81	TSLA	-3.50%	$8,761	$8,454	16	31%	-	-$307	-26.6%	10.7h	✓	-
82	BMY	-3.57%	$8,986	$8,665	14	29%	-	-$321	-14.5%	9.3h	✓	-
83	ARM	-3.69%	$5,294	$5,098	13	23%	-	-$195	-53.7%	10.4h	✓	-
84	VXX	-3.72%	$8,848	$8,519	17	12%	-	-$329	-42.2%	8.2h	✓	-
85	HOOD	-3.82%	$16,841	$16,198	14	29%	-	-$643	-21.5%	10.9h	✓	-
86	RBLX	-3.95%	$10,040	$9,643	17	24%	-	-$397	-23.0%	10.9h	✓	-
87	ACN	-3.95%	$10,344	$9,935	16	13%	-	-$409	-7.8%	11.9h	✓	-
88	COP	-4.26%	$11,030	$10,560	16	19%	-	-$470	-13.6%	9.7h	✓	-
89	IBM	-4.41%	$9,508	$9,088	14	21%	-	-$419	-12.8%	9.8h	✓	-
90	PYPL	-4.96%	$10,127	$9,625	17	12%	-	-$502	-14.2%	12.0h	✓	-
91	SNOW	-5.01%	$8,748	$8,310	17	12%	-	-$438	-21.1%	10.3h	✓	-
92	CRM	-5.10%	$12,605	$11,963	16	19%	-	-$643	-15.0%	9.6h	✓	-
93	AMC	-5.29%	$3,836	$3,633	15	20%	-	-$203	-67.5%	9.0h	✓	-
94	MS	-6.26%	$11,373	$10,661	16	13%	-	-$712	-12.1%	8.7h	✓	-
95	NVDA	-6.28%	$10,862	$10,180	16	19%	-	-$682	-30.4%	9.6h	✓	-
96	ADBE	-6.67%	$9,528	$8,893	18	28%	-	-$636	-20.5%	12.0h	✓	-
97	TQQQ	-7.39%	$9,768	$9,046	16	31%	-	-$722	-36.1%	10.2h	✓	-
98	PLTR	-7.42%	$18,964	$17,557	16	19%	-	-$1,407	-23.6%	12.0h	✓	-
99	NET	-8.35%	$10,326	$9,464	17	18%	-	-$862	-27.1%	9.4h	✓	-
100	DIS	-9.41%	$10,031	$9,087	19	5%	-	-$944	-15.9%	8.6h	✓	-
101	NIO	-10.69%	$6,536	$5,837	16	6%	-	-$699	-42.7%	8.8h	✓	-
102	AMD	-12.93%	$8,491	$7,393	16	31%	-	-$1,098	-38.6%	8.9h	✓	-

👤 Personality

Zen-like patience. Never chases trades. Believes rushing leads to ruin. Speaks slowly and deliberately. Has been known to wait months for the perfect entry.