2
Grace Crossover
The Patient One
📊 Swing Trader 📅 66 years old (Born 1960)"The fast moving average is the heartbeat. The slow moving average is the breath. When heartbeat crosses breath, the market has made its decision."
Elegant woman in her mid-60s with silver hair in a neat bun. Minimalist wardrobe—black turtleneck, simple silver watch. Her desk is immaculate, containing only what is essential.
ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.
📊 Year to Date Performance: Showing Grace Crossover's performance over the year to date across 102 stock symbols. 🟢 LIVE
$11,186
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at:
$11,035
(+$151)
+1.37%
Year to Date ROI
32.2%
Win Rate
4,130
Total Trades
Quick Performance Comparison
Click any period to view detailed stats
Equity Curve (Year to Date)
Combined P&L across all 102 symbols
⚙️ Trading Strategy
EMA crossover - 9 EMA crossing 21 EMA signals entry
Monitors the 9-period and 21-period Exponential Moving Averages. When the fast EMA (9) crosses above the slow EMA (21), it signals bullish momentum and triggers a buy. The opposite cross triggers a sell.
🎯 Best Suited For
Stocks with clean trending behavior
"The trend is your friend until it bends."
📜 Why This Strategy Works
Markets trend roughly 30% of the time—but that's where the big money is made. The crossover filters out noise and identifies when momentum has genuinely shifted.
Mathematical Formula
CODE VERIFIED —
These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php
📊 Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
EMAt = (Close × k) + (EMAt-1 × (1 - k))
Unlike SMA, EMA weighs recent prices more heavily. The multiplier k controls sensitivity.
k = Smoothing Factor = 2 ÷ (Period + 1)
For 9 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 10 = 0.20 (20% weight to current price)
For 21 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 22 ≈ 0.0909 (9.09% weight to current price)
First EMA = SMA of first n periods (seeding)
📚 Robert Goodell Brown's "Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction" (1963)
📊 Golden Cross (Buy Signal)
Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≤ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t > EMAslow,t)
The moment the fast EMA crosses ABOVE the slow EMA indicates bullish momentum shift.
EMA_fast = 9-period EMA (the "heartbeat")
EMA_slow = 21-period EMA (the "breath")
Cross detected: previous bar fast ≤ slow, current bar fast > slow
📚 Richard Donchian's trend-following system (1960s)
📊 Death Cross (Sell Signal)
Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≥ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t < EMAslow,t)
The moment the fast EMA crosses BELOW the slow EMA indicates bearish momentum shift.
Fast EMA falls below slow EMA = trend reversal
Exit signal overrides hold, even if target not reached
📚 Classic technical analysis, popularized by John Murphy
📉 Exit Conditions
• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.08 (+8% gain)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.95 (-5% loss)
• DEATH_CROSS: Fast EMA crosses below Slow EMA
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 60 days
⚙️ Simulation Parameters
FAST_EMA_PERIOD:
9
SLOW_EMA_PERIOD:
21
TARGET_GAIN_PCT:
8%
STOP_LOSS_PCT:
-5%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS:
60
STARTING_CAPITAL:
10000
📖 Historical Origin
Origin: Richard Donchian, Father of Trend Following
Richard Donchian began trading in the 1930s but didn't formalize his moving average crossover systems until the 1960s. His insight was profound: you don't need to predict where markets will go—you only need to recognize when they've started going there.
🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (Year to Date)
📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (Year to Date)
📊 All Symbol Results
Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve
📅 Year to Date:
Jan 1, 2026
→
May 6, 2026
(124 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite
60+ Good
40+ Fair
<40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot
60+ Active
40+ Moderate
<40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance.
Full methodology →
| Rank | Symbol | Score | Mom | Return | YTD Start | Final Value | Trades | Win Rate | Fees | Net | Max DD | Avg Hold | Refunds | Last Refund | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
LCID
|
39 | 65🔥 | +38.14% | $13,826 | $19,099 | 42 | 33% | - | +$5,273 | -23.9% | 10.4h | ✓ | - | |
| 2 |
USO
|
35 | 14🧊 | +34.62% | $10,764 | $14,490 | 40 | 48% | - | +$3,726 | -11.7% | 10.8h | ✓ | - | |
| 3 |
SOXL
|
18 | 73🔥 | +26.70% | $9,578 | $12,135 | 38 | 32% | - | +$2,557 | -51.2% | 11.0h | ✓ | - | |
| 4 |
MU
|
15 | 62🔥 | +25.10% | $9,080 | $11,359 | 40 | 45% | - | +$2,279 | -48.4% | 10.8h | ✓ | - | |
| 5 |
MRNA
|
3 | 60🔥 | +22.18% | $4,141 | $5,060 | 45 | 40% | - | +$919 | -67.6% | 11.1h | ✓ | - | |
| 6 |
CVX
|
32 | 38 | +21.36% | $10,881 | $13,205 | 41 | 46% | - | +$2,324 | -10.7% | 11.2h | ✓ | - | |
| 7 |
CSCO
|
58 | 57 | +18.25% | $12,824 | $15,165 | 39 | 38% | - | +$2,340 | -5.8% | 11.6h | ✓ | - | |
| 8 |
INTC
|
18 | 71🔥 | +16.43% | $10,089 | $11,747 | 39 | 26% | - | +$1,658 | -21.5% | 7.8h | ✓ | - | |
| 9 |
PLTR
|
44 | 58 | +15.87% | $18,965 | $21,974 | 40 | 33% | - | +$3,010 | -23.6% | 12.0h | ✓ | - | |
| 10 |
RIVN
|
38 | 13🧊 | +14.68% | $18,640 | $21,377 | 40 | 40% | - | +$2,736 | -33.5% | 10.9h | ✓ | - | |
| 11 |
META
|
5 | 36🔥 | +11.58% | $8,785 | $9,802 | 39 | 41% | - | +$1,017 | -28.5% | 9.8h | ✓ | - | |
| 12 |
AVGO
|
14 | 38🔥 | +11.58% | $9,985 | $11,141 | 39 | 51% | - | +$1,156 | -26.2% | 12.5h | ✓ | - | |
| 13 |
XOM
|
30 | 30 | +11.52% | $10,885 | $12,139 | 37 | 51% | - | +$1,254 | -7.7% | 11.2h | ✓ | - | |
| 14 |
DKNG
|
21 | 9 | +10.08% | $11,231 | $12,363 | 43 | 28% | - | +$1,132 | -25.0% | 11.5h | ✓ | - | |
| 15 |
GOOGL
|
21 | 66🔥 | +9.36% | $11,277 | $12,333 | 41 | 39% | - | +$1,056 | -22.4% | 10.5h | ✓ | - | |
| 16 |
AMD
|
5 | 74🔥 | +9.32% | $8,490 | $9,282 | 41 | 39% | - | +$791 | -38.6% | 8.9h | ✓ | - | |
| 17 |
AMC
|
2 | 60🔥 | +9.15% | $3,837 | $4,188 | 47 | 23% | - | +$351 | -67.5% | 9.0h | ✓ | - | |
| 18 |
PANW
|
38 | 39 | +8.94% | $13,071 | $14,240 | 38 | 37% | - | +$1,169 | -10.2% | 10.2h | ✓ | - | |
| 19 |
RIOT
|
28 | 40 | +8.60% | $14,986 | $16,274 | 41 | 27% | - | +$1,289 | -34.2% | 9.1h | ✓ | - | |
| 20 |
MRK
|
19 | 9 | +8.52% | $10,381 | $11,266 | 42 | 45% | - | +$884 | -15.0% | 11.4h | ✓ | - | |
| 21 |
ABBV
|
7 | 25 | +8.17% | $9,308 | $10,069 | 44 | 34% | - | +$760 | -20.2% | 10.6h | ✓ | - | |
| 22 |
COST
|
24 | 5 | +8.11% | $10,797 | $11,673 | 39 | 41% | - | +$876 | -8.3% | 12.2h | ✓ | - | |
| 23 |
ARKK
|
19 | 55🔥 | +6.96% | $10,555 | $11,290 | 41 | 32% | - | +$735 | -13.9% | 11.5h | ✓ | - | |
| 24 |
BAC
|
16 | 43🔥 | +6.94% | $10,173 | $10,879 | 35 | 49% | - | +$706 | -19.3% | 10.2h | ✓ | - | |
| 25 |
SLV
|
26 | 9 | +6.89% | $12,310 | $13,158 | 41 | 37% | - | +$848 | -14.1% | 11.3h | ✓ | - | |
| 26 |
XLK
|
27 | 35 | +6.72% | $12,016 | $12,823 | 37 | 43% | - | +$807 | -13.1% | 10.5h | ✓ | - | |
| 27 |
SNOW
|
4 | 23 | +6.50% | $8,748 | $9,317 | 37 | 27% | - | +$569 | -21.1% | 10.3h | ✓ | - | |
| 28 |
VRTX
|
31 | 9🧊 | +6.39% | $12,376 | $13,167 | 41 | 27% | - | +$791 | -9.6% | 11.3h | ✓ | - | |
| 29 |
NFLX
|
21 | 9 | +6.17% | $11,046 | $11,728 | 42 | 36% | - | +$682 | -13.6% | 11.4h | ✓ | - | |
| 30 |
WFC
|
27 | 6🧊 | +5.91% | $11,698 | $12,390 | 37 | 38% | - | +$691 | -10.6% | 11.2h | ✓ | - | |
| 31 |
PEP
|
34 | 9🧊 | +5.82% | $11,708 | $12,389 | 41 | 34% | - | +$681 | -6.0% | 11.3h | ✓ | - | |
| 32 |
ORCL
|
5 | 6 | +5.51% | $8,955 | $9,448 | 36 | 44% | - | +$493 | -31.9% | 11.8h | ✓ | - | |
| 33 |
AMZN
|
10 | 45🔥 | +5.49% | $9,675 | $10,206 | 42 | 29% | - | +$531 | -24.3% | 11.0h | ✓ | - | |
| 34 |
SCHW
|
48 | 6🧊 | +5.37% | $13,685 | $14,420 | 36 | 44% | - | +$735 | -6.9% | 10.9h | ✓ | - | |
| 35 |
GLD
|
51 | 12🧊 | +5.24% | $13,512 | $14,220 | 42 | 36% | - | +$708 | -6.1% | 12.6h | ✓ | - | |
| 36 |
HD
|
4 | 9 | +4.94% | $9,422 | $9,888 | 39 | 28% | - | +$465 | -11.0% | 10.3h | ✓ | - | |
| 37 |
LLY
|
28 | 22 | +4.55% | $12,830 | $13,414 | 40 | 38% | - | +$584 | -13.5% | 10.7h | ✓ | - | |
| 38 |
MSFT
|
11 | 67🔥 | +3.84% | $9,870 | $10,249 | 41 | 44% | - | +$379 | -19.0% | 11.5h | ✓ | - | |
| 39 |
UNH
|
6 | 40🔥 | +3.79% | $9,648 | $10,014 | 39 | 26% | - | +$366 | -17.4% | 9.8h | ✓ | - | |
| 40 |
MARA
|
33 | 33 | +3.50% | $19,199 | $19,871 | 42 | 33% | - | +$672 | -35.1% | 9.9h | ✓ | - | |
| 41 |
SQQQ
|
15 | 9 | +3.21% | $10,761 | $11,107 | 40 | 33% | - | +$345 | -27.4% | 9.4h | ✓ | - | |
| 42 |
GS
|
41 | 56 | +2.81% | $14,086 | $14,482 | 42 | 36% | - | +$396 | -8.5% | 10.1h | ✓ | - | |
| 43 |
BIIB
|
4 | 9 | +2.53% | $9,243 | $9,477 | 43 | 35% | - | +$234 | -21.8% | 9.1h | ✓ | - | |
| 44 |
JNJ
|
4 | 17 | +2.07% | $9,571 | $9,769 | 38 | 39% | - | +$198 | -10.9% | 11.3h | ✓ | - | |
| 45 |
BMY
|
3 | 32🔥 | +1.87% | $8,986 | $9,154 | 38 | 32% | - | +$168 | -14.5% | 9.3h | ✓ | - | |
| 46 |
KO
|
17 | 24 | +1.84% | $10,533 | $10,727 | 40 | 40% | - | +$194 | -6.4% | 13.1h | ✓ | - | |
| 47 |
BRK-B
|
3 | 6 | +1.67% | $8,859 | $9,007 | 36 | 28% | - | +$148 | -16.1% | 10.0h | ✓ | - | |
| 48 |
SOFI
|
51 | 40 | +1.67% | $24,300 | $24,706 | 41 | 34% | - | +$406 | -22.8% | 11.5h | ✓ | - | |
| 49 |
ISRG
|
15 | 10 | +1.11% | $10,558 | $10,675 | 39 | 33% | - | +$117 | -10.1% | 11.6h | ✓ | - | |
| 50 |
GME
|
28 | 22 | +1.10% | $14,498 | $14,658 | 44 | 30% | - | +$159 | -22.2% | 8.2h | ✓ | - | |
| 51 |
PM
|
54 | 15🧊 | +0.90% | $13,973 | $14,099 | 32 | 38% | - | +$126 | -4.1% | 12.3h | ✓ | - | |
| 52 |
XLE
|
4 | 9 | +0.86% | $9,684 | $9,768 | 42 | 48% | - | +$83 | -13.2% | 11.6h | ✓ | - | |
| 53 |
WMT
|
46 | 31 | +0.57% | $13,909 | $13,988 | 39 | 36% | - | +$79 | -6.4% | 14.1h | ✓ | - | |
| 54 |
DIA
|
5 | 9 | +0.28% | $9,896 | $9,924 | 37 | 32% | - | +$28 | -8.0% | 11.1h | ✓ | - | |
| 55 |
PFE
|
4 | 12 | +0.18% | $8,238 | $8,253 | 42 | 40% | - | +$15 | -20.1% | 11.0h | ✓ | - | |
| 56 |
AMGN
|
40 | 23 | -0.09% | $13,014 | $13,002 | 47 | 32% | - | -$12 | -5.9% | 10.1h | ✓ | - | |
| 57 |
IWM
|
23 | 45🔥 | -0.18% | $11,446 | $11,425 | 43 | 30% | - | -$21 | -8.0% | 9.6h | ✓ | - | |
| 58 |
CRM
|
25 | 62🔥 | -0.29% | $12,606 | $12,570 | 44 | 27% | - | -$37 | -15.0% | 9.6h | ✓ | - | |
| 59 |
MS
|
19 | 15 | -0.36% | $11,373 | $11,332 | 38 | 39% | - | -$41 | -12.1% | 8.7h | ✓ | - | |
| 60 |
AXP
|
16 | 9 | -0.45% | $10,955 | $10,906 | 42 | 36% | - | -$49 | -17.9% | 10.5h | ✓ | - | |
| 61 |
MA
|
16 | 42🔥 | -0.64% | $10,643 | $10,575 | 43 | 30% | - | -$68 | -9.3% | 9.0h | ✓ | - | |
| 62 |
QQQ
|
22 | 40 | -0.77% | $11,481 | $11,393 | 38 | 37% | - | -$88 | -9.3% | 11.6h | ✓ | - | |
| 63 |
NVDA
|
14 | 27 | -1.54% | $10,862 | $10,695 | 38 | 32% | - | -$167 | -30.4% | 9.6h | ✓ | - | |
| 64 |
VZ
|
4 | 45🔥 | -1.56% | $8,475 | $8,343 | 40 | 30% | - | -$132 | -22.5% | 13.2h | ✓ | - | |
| 65 |
SPY
|
18 | 9 | -2.30% | $10,965 | $10,713 | 40 | 23% | - | -$252 | -6.4% | 9.3h | ✓ | - | |
| 66 |
HOOD
|
33 | 44 | -2.50% | $16,841 | $16,420 | 40 | 35% | - | -$421 | -21.5% | 10.9h | ✓ | - | |
| 67 |
VTI
|
5 | 21 | -2.77% | $9,851 | $9,578 | 37 | 32% | - | -$273 | -11.1% | 8.5h | ✓ | - | |
| 68 |
COP
|
16 | 5 | -2.96% | $11,030 | $10,704 | 39 | 23% | - | -$326 | -13.6% | 9.7h | ✓ | - | |
| 69 |
ARM
|
3 | 9 | -3.76% | $5,293 | $5,094 | 37 | 32% | - | -$199 | -53.7% | 10.4h | ✓ | - | |
| 70 |
MCD
|
4 | 11 | -3.81% | $8,716 | $8,384 | 41 | 37% | - | -$332 | -16.7% | 11.1h | ✓ | - | |
| 71 |
VOO
|
20 | 9 | -3.92% | $11,158 | $10,721 | 39 | 28% | - | -$437 | -4.8% | 8.9h | ✓ | - | |
| 72 |
DIS
|
4 | 50🔥 | -3.93% | $10,030 | $9,636 | 44 | 23% | - | -$394 | -15.9% | 8.6h | ✓ | - | |
| 73 |
JPM
|
25 | 9 | -3.98% | $12,426 | $11,931 | 40 | 25% | - | -$495 | -9.6% | 10.5h | ✓ | - | |
| 74 |
TLT
|
3 | 9 | -3.99% | $9,606 | $9,223 | 46 | 22% | - | -$383 | -7.1% | 12.0h | ✓ | - | |
| 75 |
SPXU
|
2 | 9 | -4.54% | $8,361 | $7,982 | 42 | 31% | - | -$380 | -29.7% | 20.5h | ✓ | - | |
| 76 |
OXY
|
4 | 16 | -4.82% | $9,705 | $9,237 | 41 | 41% | - | -$468 | -14.1% | 11.1h | ✓ | - | |
| 77 |
XLF
|
12 | 7 | -5.04% | $10,755 | $10,213 | 40 | 38% | - | -$542 | -6.8% | 10.7h | ✓ | - | |
| 78 |
MDT
|
4 | 6 | -5.30% | $9,617 | $9,107 | 38 | 26% | - | -$510 | -12.9% | 12.0h | ✓ | - | |
| 79 |
REGN
|
2 | 9 | -6.12% | $6,664 | $6,256 | 43 | 19% | - | -$408 | -33.9% | 8.9h | ✓ | - | |
| 80 |
GILD
|
3 | 9 | -6.33% | $8,550 | $8,009 | 44 | 16% | - | -$541 | -19.1% | 8.9h | ✓ | - | |
| 81 |
CMCSA
|
6 | 9 | -6.55% | $10,621 | $9,925 | 41 | 29% | - | -$696 | -8.3% | 10.3h | ✓ | - | |
| 82 |
CRWD
|
28 | 6🧊 | -6.99% | $15,375 | $14,300 | 37 | 32% | - | -$1,075 | -20.9% | 11.7h | ✓ | - | |
| 83 |
PYPL
|
4 | 7 | -7.01% | $10,127 | $9,417 | 41 | 15% | - | -$710 | -14.2% | 12.0h | ✓ | - | |
| 84 |
BLK
|
18 | 7 | -7.41% | $11,789 | $10,915 | 40 | 30% | - | -$874 | -8.6% | 12.4h | ✓ | - | |
| 85 |
V
|
3 | 7 | -8.00% | $9,275 | $8,533 | 41 | 24% | - | -$742 | -12.2% | 10.0h | ✓ | - | |
| 86 |
VXX
|
4 | 9 | -8.32% | $8,848 | $8,112 | 44 | 23% | - | -$736 | -42.2% | 8.2h | ✓ | - | |
| 87 |
SLB
|
13 | 7 | -8.90% | $11,407 | $10,392 | 40 | 18% | - | -$1,015 | -17.0% | 9.5h | ✓ | - | |
| 88 |
IBM
|
5 | 31🔥 | -9.17% | $9,508 | $8,636 | 39 | 31% | - | -$872 | -12.8% | 9.8h | ✓ | - | |
| 89 |
COIN
|
22 | 7 | -9.79% | $14,127 | $12,744 | 39 | 31% | - | -$1,383 | -23.0% | 10.2h | ✓ | - | |
| 90 |
UVXY
|
26 | 9 | -10.54% | $16,066 | $14,373 | 47 | 21% | - | -$1,693 | -23.5% | 7.4h | ✓ | - | |
| 91 |
AAPL
|
4 | 9 | -10.69% | $9,225 | $8,238 | 44 | 23% | - | -$986 | -16.9% | 8.9h | ✓ | - | |
| 92 |
SMCI
|
14 | 24 | -11.93% | $12,559 | $11,061 | 38 | 16% | - | -$1,498 | -43.0% | 10.0h | ✓ | - | |
| 93 |
TMO
|
4 | 6 | -12.09% | $9,671 | $8,502 | 41 | 32% | - | -$1,169 | -14.5% | 9.4h | ✓ | - | |
| 94 |
C
|
15 | 9 | -12.60% | $12,408 | $10,845 | 41 | 27% | - | -$1,563 | -16.6% | 10.1h | ✓ | - | |
| 95 |
NET
|
5 | 11 | -12.89% | $10,326 | $8,995 | 41 | 24% | - | -$1,331 | -27.1% | 9.4h | ✓ | - | |
| 96 |
PG
|
18 | 7 | -14.53% | $12,486 | $10,672 | 39 | 13% | - | -$1,814 | -4.6% | 11.1h | ✓ | - | |
| 97 |
NIO
|
2 | 7 | -15.40% | $6,537 | $5,530 | 41 | 20% | - | -$1,007 | -42.7% | 8.8h | ✓ | - | |
| 98 |
TSLA
|
4 | 9 | -15.55% | $8,761 | $7,399 | 43 | 23% | - | -$1,362 | -26.6% | 10.7h | ✓ | - | |
| 99 |
ADBE
|
3 | 6 | -16.22% | $9,528 | $7,982 | 45 | 27% | - | -$1,545 | -20.5% | 12.0h | ✓ | - | |
| 100 |
RBLX
|
4 | 7 | -16.30% | $10,040 | $8,404 | 44 | 27% | - | -$1,637 | -23.0% | 10.9h | ✓ | - | |
| 101 |
ACN
|
4 | 7 | -16.76% | $10,343 | $8,610 | 43 | 19% | - | -$1,734 | -7.8% | 11.9h | ✓ | - | |
| 102 |
TQQQ
|
4 | 11 | -22.01% | $9,768 | $7,618 | 40 | 23% | - | -$2,150 | -36.1% | 10.2h | ✓ | - |
👤 Personality
Zen-like patience. Never chases trades. Believes rushing leads to ruin. Speaks slowly and deliberately. Has been known to wait months for the perfect entry.