Grace Crossover

The Patient One

📊 Swing Trader 📅 66 years old (Born 1960)

"The fast moving average is the heartbeat. The slow moving average is the breath. When heartbeat crosses breath, the market has made its decision."

Elegant woman in her mid-60s with silver hair in a neat bun. Minimalist wardrobe—black turtleneck, simple silver watch. Her desk is immaculate, containing only what is essential.

📊 View Performance: 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months YTD 1 Year 2 Years

Feb 15, 2024 → Feb 15, 2026 (731 days)

🎯 Asset Class: 📈 Stocks 102 ₿ Crypto 12 🌐 All Assets 114

📊 2 Years Performance: We gave Grace Crossover $10,000 and let him trade 114 symbols from Jan 1, 2024 to today. 🟢 LIVE

$10,237

Avg Value (per symbol)

Started at: $10,000 (+$237)

+2.37%

2-Year ROI

28.2%

Win Rate

33,173

Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

Equity Curve (2 Years)

Combined P&L across all 114 symbols

💰 Trading Activity (2 Years)

Stock Volume

$293,561,447

28,512 trades

Stock Fees

✓ Commission FREE

Crypto Volume

$14,840,670

4,661 trades

Crypto Fees

$37,102

0.25% of volume

⚠️ Important Note: This simulation tests each symbol with its own $10K account (not pooled). Crypto symbols can show 40-75%+ fee drag due to high trade frequency.

Stocks are FREE on Alpaca, so the ~100 stock symbols have zero fee impact.

⚙️ Trading Strategy

EMA crossover - 9 EMA crossing 21 EMA signals entry

Monitors the 9-period and 21-period Exponential Moving Averages. When the fast EMA (9) crosses above the slow EMA (21), it signals bullish momentum and triggers a buy. The opposite cross triggers a sell.

🎯 Best Suited For

Stocks with clean trending behavior

"The trend is your friend until it bends."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets trend roughly 30% of the time—but that's where the big money is made. The crossover filters out noise and identifies when momentum has genuinely shifted.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php

📊 Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

                        EMAt = (Close × k) + (EMAt-1 × (1 - k))                    

                        Unlike SMA, EMA weighs recent prices more heavily. The multiplier k controls sensitivity.                    

                            k = Smoothing Factor = 2 ÷ (Period + 1)                        

                            For 9 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 10 = 0.20 (20% weight to current price)                        

                            For 21 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 22 ≈ 0.0909 (9.09% weight to current price)                        

                            First EMA = SMA of first n periods (seeding)

                    📚 Robert Goodell Brown's "Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction" (1963)                

📊 Golden Cross (Buy Signal)

                        Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≤ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t > EMAslow,t)                    

                        The moment the fast EMA crosses ABOVE the slow EMA indicates bullish momentum shift.                    

                            EMA_fast = 9-period EMA (the "heartbeat")                        

                            EMA_slow = 21-period EMA (the "breath")                        

                            Cross detected: previous bar fast ≤ slow, current bar fast > slow

                    📚 Richard Donchian's trend-following system (1960s)                

📊 Death Cross (Sell Signal)

                        Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≥ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t < EMAslow,t)                    

                        The moment the fast EMA crosses BELOW the slow EMA indicates bearish momentum shift.                    

                            Fast EMA falls below slow EMA = trend reversal                        

                            Exit signal overrides hold, even if target not reached

                    📚 Classic technical analysis, popularized by John Murphy                

📉 Exit Conditions

                        • TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.08 (+8% gain)                    

                        • STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.95 (-5% loss)                    

                        • DEATH_CROSS: Fast EMA crosses below Slow EMA                    

                        • MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 60 days                    

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

                        FAST_EMA_PERIOD:
                        9
                    

                        SLOW_EMA_PERIOD:
                        21
                    

                        TARGET_GAIN_PCT:
                        8%
                    

                        STOP_LOSS_PCT:
                        -5%
                    

                        MAX_HOLD_DAYS:
                        60
                    

                        STARTING_CAPITAL:
                        10000
                    

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: Richard Donchian, Father of Trend Following

Richard Donchian began trading in the 1930s but didn't formalize his moving average crossover systems until the 1960s. His insight was profound: you don't need to predict where markets will go—you only need to recognize when they've started going there.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 2 Years: Feb 15, 2024 → Feb 15, 2026 (731 days)

Rank	Symbol	Return	Start	Final Value	Trades	Win Rate	Fees	Net	Max DD	Avg Hold	Refunds	Last Refund
1	SOFI	+172.62%	$10,000	$27,262	267	36%	-	+$17,262	-22.8%	11.5h	✓	-
2	MARA	+102.99%	$10,000	$20,299	294	29%	-	+$10,299	-35.1%	9.9h	✓	-
3	RIVN	+86.85%	$10,000	$18,685	289	33%	-	+$8,685	-33.5%	10.9h	✓	-
4	PLTR	+75.57%	$10,000	$17,557	280	30%	-	+$7,557	-23.6%	12.0h	✓	-
5	CRWD	+64.89%	$10,000	$16,489	272	34%	-	+$6,489	-20.9%	11.7h	✓	-
6	UVXY	+62.01%	$10,000	$16,201	295	24%	-	+$6,201	-23.5%	7.4h	✓	-
7	HOOD	+61.98%	$10,000	$16,198	281	32%	-	+$6,198	-21.5%	10.9h	✓	-
8	RIOT	+59.87%	$10,000	$15,987	280	30%	-	+$5,987	-34.2%	9.1h	✓	-
9	GS	+47.07%	$10,000	$14,707	280	31%	-	+$4,707	-8.5%	10.1h	✓	-
10	GME	+45.28%	$10,000	$14,528	290	28%	-	+$4,528	-22.2%	8.2h	✓	-
11	PM	+44.97%	$10,000	$14,497	270	31%	-	+$4,497	-4.1%	12.3h	✓	-
12	SCHW	+44.34%	$10,000	$14,434	271	38%	-	+$4,434	-6.9%	10.9h	✓	-
13	LCID	+42.39%	$10,000	$14,239	287	26%	-	+$4,239	-23.9%	10.4h	✓	-
14	COIN	+40.76%	$10,000	$14,076	283	29%	-	+$4,076	-23.0%	10.2h	✓	-
15	AMGN	+36.36%	$10,000	$13,636	286	34%	-	+$3,636	-5.9%	10.1h	✓	-
16	SMCI	+36.34%	$10,000	$13,635	294	26%	-	+$3,635	-43.0%	10.0h	✓	-
17	WMT	+35.70%	$10,000	$13,570	275	33%	-	+$3,570	-6.4%	14.1h	✓	-
18	CSCO	+34.83%	$10,000	$13,483	278	34%	-	+$3,483	-5.8%	11.6h	✓	-
19	LLY	+31.37%	$10,000	$13,137	286	31%	-	+$3,137	-13.5%	10.7h	✓	-
20	GLD	+31.02%	$10,000	$13,102	265	37%	-	+$3,102	-6.1%	12.6h	✓	-
21	PANW	+29.68%	$10,000	$12,968	280	31%	-	+$2,968	-10.2%	10.2h	✓	-
22	VRTX	+29.41%	$10,000	$12,941	283	34%	-	+$2,941	-9.6%	11.3h	✓	-
23	C	+24.90%	$10,000	$12,490	277	31%	-	+$2,490	-16.6%	10.1h	✓	-
24	DKNG	+24.33%	$10,000	$12,433	287	35%	-	+$2,433	-25.0%	11.5h	✓	-
25	WFC	+23.64%	$10,000	$12,364	283	32%	-	+$2,364	-10.6%	11.2h	✓	-
26	SLV	+23.41%	$10,000	$12,341	272	31%	-	+$2,341	-14.1%	11.3h	✓	-
27	PG	+22.33%	$10,000	$12,233	281	28%	-	+$2,233	-4.6%	11.1h	✓	-
28	XLK	+21.77%	$10,000	$12,177	276	34%	-	+$2,177	-13.1%	10.5h	✓	-
29	CVX	+21.06%	$10,000	$12,106	283	31%	-	+$2,106	-10.7%	11.2h	✓	-
30	JPM	+20.15%	$10,000	$12,015	284	29%	-	+$2,015	-9.6%	10.5h	✓	-
31	CRM	+19.63%	$10,000	$11,963	289	28%	-	+$1,963	-15.0%	9.6h	✓	-
32	PEP	+19.15%	$10,000	$11,915	276	33%	-	+$1,915	-6.0%	11.3h	✓	-
33	COST	+16.97%	$10,000	$11,697	284	28%	-	+$1,697	-8.3%	12.2h	✓	-
34	BLK	+16.15%	$10,000	$11,615	273	34%	-	+$1,615	-8.6%	12.4h	✓	-
35	USO	+15.52%	$10,000	$11,552	270	34%	-	+$1,552	-11.7%	10.8h	✓	-
36	GOOGL	+14.24%	$10,000	$11,424	280	34%	-	+$1,424	-22.4%	10.5h	✓	-
37	XOM	+14.09%	$10,000	$11,409	283	32%	-	+$1,409	-7.7%	11.2h	✓	-
38	QQQ	+13.70%	$10,000	$11,370	265	33%	-	+$1,370	-9.3%	11.6h	✓	-
39	IWM	+13.05%	$10,000	$11,305	283	29%	-	+$1,305	-8.0%	9.6h	✓	-
40	VOO	+12.34%	$10,000	$11,234	271	34%	-	+$1,234	-4.8%	8.9h	✓	-
41	SQQQ	+12.17%	$10,000	$11,217	279	28%	-	+$1,217	-27.4%	9.4h	✓	-
42	ARKK	+11.71%	$10,000	$11,171	276	29%	-	+$1,171	-13.9%	11.5h	✓	-
43	AXP	+11.66%	$10,000	$11,166	285	33%	-	+$1,166	-17.9%	10.5h	✓	-
44	SLB	+11.51%	$10,000	$11,151	290	31%	-	+$1,151	-17.0%	9.5h	✓	-
45	SPY	+10.56%	$10,000	$11,056	269	33%	-	+$1,056	-6.4%	9.3h	✓	-
46	MRK	+8.21%	$10,000	$10,821	279	32%	-	+$821	-15.0%	11.4h	✓	-
47	ISRG	+8.08%	$10,000	$10,808	277	32%	-	+$808	-10.1%	11.6h	✓	-
48	XLF	+7.90%	$10,000	$10,790	287	31%	-	+$790	-6.8%	10.7h	✓	-
49	NFLX	+7.90%	$10,000	$10,790	285	33%	-	+$790	-13.6%	11.4h	✓	-
50	BAC	+7.78%	$10,000	$10,778	282	33%	-	+$778	-19.3%	10.2h	✓	-
51	MS	+6.61%	$10,000	$10,661	287	32%	-	+$661	-12.1%	8.7h	✓	-
52	KO	+6.12%	$10,000	$10,612	270	31%	-	+$612	-6.4%	13.1h	✓	-
53	MA	+6.08%	$10,000	$10,608	286	26%	-	+$608	-9.3%	9.0h	✓	-
54	COP	+5.60%	$10,000	$10,560	286	31%	-	+$560	-13.6%	9.7h	✓	-
55	AVGO	+5.24%	$10,000	$10,524	276	31%	-	+$524	-26.2%	12.5h	✓	-
56	CMCSA	+4.20%	$10,000	$10,420	288	31%	-	+$420	-8.3%	10.3h	✓	-
57	XLE	+3.45%	$10,000	$10,345	288	30%	-	+$345	-13.2%	11.6h	✓	-
58	NVDA	+1.80%	$10,000	$10,180	285	28%	-	+$180	-30.4%	9.6h	✓	-
59	MDT	+1.73%	$10,000	$10,173	279	25%	-	+$173	-12.9%	12.0h	✓	-
60	DIA	+0.82%	$10,000	$10,082	276	29%	-	+$82	-8.0%	11.1h	✓	-
61	HD	-0.08%	$10,000	$9,992	281	28%	-	-$8	-11.0%	10.3h	✓	-
62	UNH	-0.26%	$10,000	$9,974	278	32%	-	-$26	-17.4%	9.8h	✓	-
63	MU	-0.27%	$10,000	$9,973	254	27%	-	-$27	-48.4%	10.8h	✓	-
64	TMO	-0.38%	$10,000	$9,962	293	26%	-	-$38	-14.5%	9.4h	✓	-
65	ABBV	-0.49%	$10,000	$9,951	279	32%	-	-$49	-20.2%	10.6h	✓	-
66	SOXL	-0.60%	$10,000	$9,940	268	30%	-	-$60	-51.2%	11.0h	✓	-
67	ACN	-0.65%	$10,000	$9,935	280	34%	-	-$65	-7.8%	11.9h	✓	-
68	MSFT	-0.71%	$10,000	$9,929	278	30%	-	-$71	-19.0%	11.5h	✓	-
69	JNJ	-1.15%	$10,000	$9,885	277	27%	-	-$115	-10.9%	11.3h	✓	-
70	VTI	-1.48%	$10,000	$9,852	275	29%	-	-$148	-11.1%	8.5h	✓	-
71	INTC	-2.51%	$10,000	$9,749	293	26%	-	-$251	-21.5%	7.8h	✓	-
72	RBLX	-3.57%	$10,000	$9,643	282	32%	-	-$357	-23.0%	10.9h	✓	-
73	BIIB	-3.67%	$10,000	$9,633	290	27%	-	-$367	-21.8%	9.1h	✓	-
74	PYPL	-3.75%	$10,000	$9,625	268	32%	-	-$375	-14.2%	12.0h	✓	-
75	OXY	-3.76%	$10,000	$9,624	290	29%	-	-$376	-14.1%	11.1h	✓	-
76	TLT	-4.70%	$10,000	$9,531	270	34%	-	-$470	-7.1%	12.0h	✓	-
77	NET	-5.37%	$10,000	$9,464	279	29%	-	-$537	-27.1%	9.4h	✓	-
78	AMZN	-5.73%	$10,000	$9,427	280	35%	-	-$573	-24.3%	11.0h	✓	-
79	BRK-B	-8.50%	$10,000	$9,150	287	24%	-	-$850	-16.1%	10.0h	✓	-
80	IBM	-9.12%	$10,000	$9,088	278	32%	-	-$912	-12.8%	9.8h	✓	-
81	DIS	-9.13%	$10,000	$9,087	288	28%	-	-$913	-15.9%	8.6h	✓	-
82	AAPL	-9.30%	$10,000	$9,070	278	28%	-	-$930	-16.9%	8.9h	✓	-
83	V	-9.47%	$10,000	$9,053	282	27%	-	-$947	-12.2%	10.0h	✓	-
84	TQQQ	-9.54%	$10,000	$9,046	271	33%	-	-$954	-36.1%	10.2h	✓	-
85	GILD	-9.98%	$10,000	$9,002	285	25%	-	-$998	-19.1%	8.9h	✓	-
86	ORCL	-10.59%	$10,000	$8,941	272	34%	-	-$1,059	-31.9%	11.8h	✓	-
87	ADBE	-11.07%	$10,000	$8,893	287	32%	-	-$1,107	-20.5%	12.0h	✓	-
88	META	-11.90%	$10,000	$8,810	290	29%	-	-$1,190	-28.5%	9.8h	✓	-
89	MCD	-12.80%	$10,000	$8,720	291	29%	-	-$1,280	-16.7%	11.1h	✓	-
90	BMY	-13.35%	$10,000	$8,665	285	26%	-	-$1,335	-14.5%	9.3h	✓	-
91	PFE	-14.69%	$10,000	$8,531	280	28%	-	-$1,469	-20.1%	11.0h	✓	-
92	VXX	-14.81%	$10,000	$8,519	295	25%	-	-$1,481	-42.2%	8.2h	✓	-
93	TSLA	-15.46%	$10,000	$8,454	283	32%	-	-$1,546	-26.6%	10.7h	✓	-
94	SPXU	-15.56%	$10,000	$8,444	128	27%	-	-$1,556	-29.7%	20.5h	✓	-
95	SNOW	-16.90%	$10,000	$8,310	287	30%	-	-$1,690	-21.1%	10.3h	✓	-
96	VZ	-16.93%	$10,000	$8,307	282	28%	-	-$1,693	-22.5%	13.2h	✓	-
97	SHIBUSD 🚫 PROBATION ₿	-25.62%	🔄 $10,099	$8,136	48	15%	$2,167	-$1,964	-99.1%	1.7h	6	Feb 5, 2026 20d left
98	AMD	-26.07%	$10,000	$7,393	287	28%	-	-$2,607	-38.6%	8.9h	✓	-
99	REGN	-33.62%	$10,000	$6,638	285	25%	-	-$3,362	-33.9%	8.9h	✓	-
100	DOTUSD 🚫 PROBATION ₿	-40.14%	🔄 $10,099	$6,441	70	16%	$2,786	-$3,658	-99.1%	1.7h	6	Feb 1, 2026 16d left
101	NIO	-41.63%	$10,000	$5,837	280	28%	-	-$4,163	-42.7%	8.8h	✓	-
102	ARM	-49.02%	$10,000	$5,098	277	27%	-	-$4,902	-53.7%	10.4h	✓	-
103	MRNA	-53.47%	$10,000	$4,653	285	29%	-	-$5,347	-67.6%	11.1h	✓	-
104	LTCUSD 🚫 PROBATION ₿	-54.29%	🔄 $10,100	$5,029	115	10%	$4,064	-$5,071	-99.1%	1.7h	6	Jan 26, 2026 10d left
105	UNIUSD 🚫 PROBATION ₿	-61.38%	🔄 $10,100	$4,057	157	10%	$4,751	-$6,043	-99.0%	1.6h	6	Jan 21, 2026 5d left
106	AMC	-63.67%	$10,000	$3,633	301	18%	-	-$6,367	-67.5%	9.0h	✓	-
107	PEPEUSD 🚫 PROBATION ₿	-65.69%	🔄 $10,100	$3,690	145	13%	$4,569	-$6,410	-99.3%	1.6h	7	Jan 22, 2026 6d left
108	LINKUSD 🚫 PROBATION ₿	-66.07%	🔄 $10,100	$3,673	148	8%	$4,628	-$6,427	-99.0%	1.7h	6	Jan 22, 2026 6d left
109	SOLUSD ₿	-91.08%	🔄 $10,099	$949	407	10%	$8,186	-$9,150	-99.1%	1.8h	5	Dec 20, 2025
110	DOGEUSD ₿	-97.59%	🔄 $10,100	$267	654	11%	$8,462	-$9,833	-99.0%	1.7h	5	Nov 12, 2025
111	ETHUSD ₿	-97.80%	🔄 $10,100	$235	655	11%	$8,495	-$9,864	-99.0%	1.8h	5	Nov 16, 2025
112	XRPUSD ₿	-98.39%	🔄 $10,099	$175	726	11%	$8,779	-$9,925	-99.0%	1.8h	5	Oct 29, 2025
113	AVAXUSD ₿	-98.45%	🔄 $10,099	$167	719	10%	$8,490	-$9,932	-99.1%	1.7h	5	Nov 7, 2025
114	BTCUSD ₿	-99.04%	🔄 $10,100	$103	817	8%	$8,785	-$9,997	-99.1%	1.8h	5	Oct 22, 2025

👤 Personality

Zen-like patience. Never chases trades. Believes rushing leads to ruin. Speaks slowly and deliberately. Has been known to wait months for the perfect entry.