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Grace Crossover
2

Grace Crossover

The Patient One

📊 Swing Trader 📅 66 years old (Born 1960)

"The fast moving average is the heartbeat. The slow moving average is the breath. When heartbeat crosses breath, the market has made its decision."

Elegant woman in her mid-60s with silver hair in a neat bun. Minimalist wardrobe—black turtleneck, simple silver watch. Her desk is immaculate, containing only what is essential.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

Jun 24, 2024 Jun 24, 2026 (730d)

📊 2 Years Performance: We gave Grace Crossover $10,000 and let him trade 114 symbols from Jan 1, 2024 to today. 🟢 LIVE

$10,279
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $10,000 (+$279)
+2.79%
2-Year ROI
29.7%
Win Rate
31,917
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

-3.7%
1 Month
-6.0%
3 Months
-6.7%
6 Months
-6.2%
YTD
-4.0%
1 Year

Equity Curve (2 Years)

Combined P&L across all 114 symbols

💰 Trading Activity (2 Years)

Stock Volume
$288,151,080
27,527 trades
Stock Fees
$0
✓ Commission FREE
Crypto Volume
$14,718,868
4,390 trades
Crypto Fees
$36,797
0.25% of volume

⚠️ Important Note: This simulation tests each symbol with its own $10K account (not pooled). Crypto symbols can show 40-75%+ fee drag due to high trade frequency.

Stocks are FREE on Alpaca, so the ~100 stock symbols have zero fee impact.

⚙️ Trading Strategy

EMA crossover - 9 EMA crossing 21 EMA signals entry

Monitors the 9-period and 21-period Exponential Moving Averages. When the fast EMA (9) crosses above the slow EMA (21), it signals bullish momentum and triggers a buy. The opposite cross triggers a sell.

🎯 Best Suited For

Stocks with clean trending behavior

"The trend is your friend until it bends."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets trend roughly 30% of the time—but that's where the big money is made. The crossover filters out noise and identifies when momentum has genuinely shifted.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php

📊 Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMAt = (Close × k) + (EMAt-1 × (1 - k))
Unlike SMA, EMA weighs recent prices more heavily. The multiplier k controls sensitivity.
k = Smoothing Factor = 2 ÷ (Period + 1)
For 9 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 10 = 0.20 (20% weight to current price)
For 21 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 22 ≈ 0.0909 (9.09% weight to current price)
First EMA = SMA of first n periods (seeding)
📚 Robert Goodell Brown's "Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction" (1963)

📊 Golden Cross (Buy Signal)

Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≤ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t > EMAslow,t)
The moment the fast EMA crosses ABOVE the slow EMA indicates bullish momentum shift.
EMA_fast = 9-period EMA (the "heartbeat")
EMA_slow = 21-period EMA (the "breath")
Cross detected: previous bar fast ≤ slow, current bar fast > slow
📚 Richard Donchian's trend-following system (1960s)

📊 Death Cross (Sell Signal)

Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≥ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t < EMAslow,t)
The moment the fast EMA crosses BELOW the slow EMA indicates bearish momentum shift.
Fast EMA falls below slow EMA = trend reversal
Exit signal overrides hold, even if target not reached
📚 Classic technical analysis, popularized by John Murphy

📉 Exit Conditions

• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.08 (+8% gain)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.95 (-5% loss)
• DEATH_CROSS: Fast EMA crosses below Slow EMA
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 60 days

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

FAST_EMA_PERIOD: 9
SLOW_EMA_PERIOD: 21
TARGET_GAIN_PCT: 8%
STOP_LOSS_PCT: -5%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS: 60
STARTING_CAPITAL: 10000

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: Richard Donchian, Father of Trend Following

Richard Donchian began trading in the 1930s but didn't formalize his moving average crossover systems until the 1960s. His insight was profound: you don't need to predict where markets will go—you only need to recognize when they've started going there.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 2 Years: Jun 24, 2024 Jun 24, 2026 (730 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite   60+ Good   40+ Fair   <40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot   60+ Active   40+ Moderate   <40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →
Rank Symbol Score Mom Return Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund Action
1 RIVN 40 11🧊 +123.52% $10,000 $22,352 271 35% - +$12,352 -33.5% 10.9h -
2 SOFI 45 5🧊 +120.32% $10,000 $22,032 258 38% - +$12,032 -22.8% 11.5h -
3 MARA 36 45 +113.51% $10,000 $21,351 282 30% - +$11,351 -35.1% 9.9h -
4 PLTR 42 13🧊 +109.90% $10,000 $20,990 270 31% - +$10,990 -23.6% 12.0h -
5 PANW 50 43 +70.03% $10,000 $17,003 268 34% - +$7,003 -10.2% 10.2h -
6 GME 33 71🔥 +66.06% $10,000 $16,606 288 29% - +$6,606 -22.2% 8.2h -
7 HOOD 32 22 +59.72% $10,000 $15,972 269 31% - +$5,972 -21.5% 10.9h -
8 LCID 30 6🧊 +58.27% $10,000 $15,827 273 25% - +$5,827 -23.9% 10.4h -
9 UVXY 28 31 +53.76% $10,000 $15,376 291 26% - +$5,376 -23.5% 7.4h -
10 SCHW 54 37 +52.25% $10,000 $15,225 262 38% - +$5,225 -6.9% 10.9h -
11 CSCO 59 9🧊 +52.15% $10,000 $15,215 266 36% - +$5,215 -5.8% 11.6h -
12 GS 45 31 +51.11% $10,000 $15,111 272 34% - +$5,111 -8.5% 10.1h -
13 XLK 38 43 +46.53% $10,000 $14,653 259 37% - +$4,653 -13.1% 10.5h -
14 WMT 48 20🧊 +43.59% $10,000 $14,359 266 35% - +$4,359 -6.4% 14.1h -
15 PM 55 9🧊 +43.22% $10,000 $14,322 259 30% - +$4,322 -4.1% 12.3h -
16 LLY 32 19 +41.65% $10,000 $14,165 276 34% - +$4,165 -13.5% 10.7h -
17 CRWD 28 7🧊 +41.53% $10,000 $14,153 260 34% - +$4,153 -20.9% 11.7h -
18 SMCI 23 57🔥 +39.88% $10,000 $13,988 279 27% - +$3,988 -43.0% 10.0h -
19 RIOT 24 7 +37.76% $10,000 $13,776 269 29% - +$3,776 -34.2% 9.1h -
20 USO 31 6🧊 +36.92% $10,000 $13,692 263 35% - +$3,692 -11.7% 10.8h -
21 AMGN 45 48 +36.85% $10,000 $13,685 283 34% - +$3,685 -5.9% 10.1h -
22 WFC 31 43 +32.77% $10,000 $13,277 269 33% - +$3,277 -10.6% 11.2h -
23 SNOW 24 70🔥 +31.93% $10,000 $13,193 273 32% - +$3,193 -21.1% 10.3h -
24 GLD 40 5🧊 +31.09% $10,000 $13,109 261 35% - +$3,109 -6.1% 12.6h -
25 VRTX 30 7🧊 +29.15% $10,000 $12,915 277 33% - +$2,915 -9.6% 11.3h -
26 GOOGL 23 23 +27.40% $10,000 $12,740 269 33% - +$2,740 -22.4% 10.5h -
27 CVX 30 9🧊 +27.24% $10,000 $12,724 273 31% - +$2,724 -10.7% 11.2h -
28 DKNG 21 18 +25.87% $10,000 $12,587 284 33% - +$2,587 -25.0% 11.5h -
29 MRK 26 44 +25.54% $10,000 $12,554 267 34% - +$2,554 -15.0% 11.4h -
30 JPM 28 38 +24.56% $10,000 $12,456 277 30% - +$2,456 -9.6% 10.5h -
31 CRM 23 6 +23.35% $10,000 $12,335 282 28% - +$2,335 -15.0% 9.6h -
32 SLV 23 3 +21.28% $10,000 $12,128 263 32% - +$2,128 -14.1% 11.3h -
33 IWM 27 45 +20.60% $10,000 $12,060 272 30% - +$2,060 -8.0% 9.6h -
34 ARKK 23 51🔥 +20.46% $10,000 $12,046 266 31% - +$2,046 -13.9% 11.5h -
35 SQQQ 18 36 +18.41% $10,000 $11,841 271 30% - +$1,841 -27.4% 9.4h -
36 COIN 19 12 +17.07% $10,000 $11,707 275 29% - +$1,707 -23.0% 10.2h -
37 PEP 26 6 +16.06% $10,000 $11,606 268 35% - +$1,606 -6.0% 11.3h -
38 AXP 20 51🔥 +15.78% $10,000 $11,578 274 32% - +$1,578 -17.9% 10.5h -
39 MS 21 9 +15.58% $10,000 $11,558 273 35% - +$1,558 -12.1% 8.7h -
40 XOM 28 9 +15.48% $10,000 $11,548 272 32% - +$1,548 -7.7% 11.2h -
41 NFLX 19 9 +14.70% $10,000 $11,470 278 33% - +$1,470 -13.6% 11.4h -
42 QQQ 23 9 +14.25% $10,000 $11,425 259 33% - +$1,425 -9.3% 11.6h -
43 MU 16 17 +13.97% $10,000 $11,397 250 30% - +$1,397 -48.4% 10.8h -
44 INTC 16 9 +12.86% $10,000 $11,286 281 27% - +$1,286 -21.5% 7.8h -
45 MA 21 23 +12.36% $10,000 $11,236 277 28% - +$1,236 -9.3% 9.0h -
46 BAC 18 13 +11.39% $10,000 $11,139 264 34% - +$1,139 -19.3% 10.2h -
47 SPY 20 12 +8.37% $10,000 $10,837 263 32% - +$837 -6.4% 9.3h -
48 C 15 7 +8.11% $10,000 $10,811 269 33% - +$811 -16.6% 10.1h -
49 COST 17 9 +7.65% $10,000 $10,765 275 29% - +$765 -8.3% 12.2h -
50 VOO 22 11 +7.42% $10,000 $10,742 264 32% - +$742 -4.8% 8.9h -
51 BLK 16 10 +6.31% $10,000 $10,631 268 35% - +$631 -8.6% 12.4h -
52 KO 17 9 +6.28% $10,000 $10,628 258 31% - +$628 -6.4% 13.1h -
53 NVDA 13 24 +5.72% $10,000 $10,572 270 30% - +$572 -30.4% 9.6h -
54 XLF 15 30 +5.63% $10,000 $10,563 273 33% - +$563 -6.8% 10.7h -
55 PG 13 9 +5.18% $10,000 $10,518 270 25% - +$518 -4.6% 11.1h -
56 MSFT 12 19 +4.21% $10,000 $10,421 269 32% - +$421 -19.0% 11.5h -
57 AVGO 10 9 +3.88% $10,000 $10,388 266 32% - +$388 -26.2% 12.5h -
58 COP 15 23 +2.89% $10,000 $10,289 276 30% - +$289 -13.6% 9.7h -
59 JNJ 11 11 +2.48% $10,000 $10,248 265 30% - +$248 -10.9% 11.3h -
60 ABBV 8 9 +2.02% $10,000 $10,202 276 33% - +$202 -20.2% 10.6h -
61 SLB 9 9 +1.90% $10,000 $10,190 275 33% - +$190 -17.0% 9.5h -
62 DIA 7 35🔥 +0.60% $10,000 $10,060 264 29% - +$60 -8.0% 11.1h -
63 ISRG 5 7 +0.21% $10,000 $10,021 266 31% - +$21 -10.1% 11.6h -
64 BTCUSD +0.06% 🔄 $10,097 $104 2 100% $1 -$9,993 -99.1% 1.8h 45 Mar 4, 2026
65 ORCL 5 25 -1.09% $10,000 $9,891 257 35% - -$109 -31.9% 11.8h -
66 XLE 6 14 -1.22% $10,000 $9,878 278 32% - -$122 -13.2% 11.6h -
67 HD 4 23 -1.52% $10,000 $9,848 270 29% - -$152 -11.0% 10.3h -
68 CMCSA 5 9 -1.87% $10,000 $9,813 275 32% - -$187 -8.3% 10.3h -
69 UNH 5 7 -2.02% $10,000 $9,798 269 32% - -$202 -17.4% 9.8h -
70 VTI 5 9 -4.52% $10,000 $9,548 266 30% - -$452 -11.1% 8.5h -
71 DIS 4 9 -4.81% $10,000 $9,519 277 29% - -$481 -15.9% 8.6h -
72 BIIB 5 6 -5.62% $10,000 $9,438 282 28% - -$562 -21.8% 9.1h -
73 META 5 9 -5.68% $10,000 $9,432 281 30% - -$568 -28.5% 9.8h -
74 BMY 4 21 -6.60% $10,000 $9,340 274 29% - -$660 -14.5% 9.3h -
75 BRK-B 4 7 -8.17% $10,000 $9,183 273 23% - -$817 -16.1% 10.0h -
76 TMO 5 46🔥 -8.70% $10,000 $9,130 284 26% - -$870 -14.5% 9.4h -
77 V 3 40🔥 -8.93% $10,000 $9,107 269 30% - -$893 -12.2% 10.0h -
78 PYPL 4 6 -9.27% $10,000 $9,073 256 30% - -$927 -14.2% 12.0h -
79 TLT 3 5 -9.58% $10,000 $9,042 266 32% - -$958 -7.1% 12.0h -
80 RBLX 4 35🔥 -9.65% $10,000 $9,035 275 32% - -$965 -23.0% 10.9h -
81 SOXL 4 14 -10.98% $10,000 $8,902 259 33% - -$1,098 -51.2% 11.0h -
82 AMZN 5 7 -12.24% $10,000 $8,776 271 34% - -$1,224 -24.3% 11.0h -
83 AAPL 4 33🔥 -13.73% $10,000 $8,627 271 28% - -$1,373 -16.9% 8.9h -
84 AMD 5 30🔥 -14.07% $10,000 $8,593 275 29% - -$1,407 -38.6% 8.9h -
85 VZ 4 7 -16.20% $10,000 $8,380 269 28% - -$1,620 -22.5% 13.2h -
86 MDT 4 5 -16.24% $10,000 $8,376 268 25% - -$1,624 -12.9% 12.0h -
87 TQQQ 4 9 -16.76% $10,000 $8,324 264 33% - -$1,676 -36.1% 10.2h -
88 PFE 4 32🔥 -16.93% $10,000 $8,307 275 29% - -$1,693 -20.1% 11.0h -
89 MCD 4 7 -17.67% $10,000 $8,233 275 30% - -$1,767 -16.7% 11.1h -
90 IBM 5 9 -19.13% $10,000 $8,087 267 34% - -$1,913 -12.8% 9.8h -
91 NET 5 9 -19.59% $10,000 $8,041 272 28% - -$1,959 -27.1% 9.4h -
92 ACN 4 6 -19.92% $10,000 $8,008 271 31% - -$1,992 -7.8% 11.9h -
93 OXY 4 9 -20.97% $10,000 $7,903 276 31% - -$2,097 -14.1% 11.1h -
94 GILD 3 7 -21.91% $10,000 $7,809 275 25% - -$2,191 -19.1% 8.9h -
95 VXX 4 7 -24.69% $10,000 $7,531 288 24% - -$2,469 -42.2% 8.2h -
96 SPXU 2 6 -24.99% $10,000 $7,501 122 27% - -$2,499 -29.7% 20.5h -
97 TSLA 3 6 -30.58% $10,000 $6,942 273 31% - -$3,058 -26.6% 10.7h -
98 ADBE 4 7 -32.06% $10,000 $6,794 283 31% - -$3,206 -20.5% 12.0h -
99 MRNA 4 54🔥 -36.27% $10,000 $6,373 284 30% - -$3,627 -67.6% 11.1h -
100 ARM 3 77🔥 -40.36% $10,000 $5,964 266 32% - -$4,036 -53.7% 10.4h -
101 REGN 2 7 -47.33% $10,000 $5,267 277 23% - -$4,733 -33.9% 8.9h -
102 SHIBUSD -47.74% 🔄 $10,099 $8,005 102 17% $4,270 -$2,094 -99.1% 1.7h 6 Feb 5, 2026
103 NIO 2 9 -54.39% $10,000 $4,561 272 28% - -$5,439 -42.7% 8.8h -
104 DOTUSD -62.62% 🔄 $10,099 $5,827 124 15% $4,443 -$4,272 -99.1% 1.7h 6 Feb 1, 2026
105 AMC 2 9 -68.43% $10,000 $3,157 296 21% - -$6,843 -67.5% 9.0h -
106 LTCUSD -69.53% 🔄 $10,100 $4,765 166 12% $5,339 -$5,335 -99.1% 1.7h 6 Jan 26, 2026
107 UNIUSD -71.19% 🔄 $10,100 $4,103 209 13% $5,788 -$5,997 -99.0% 1.6h 6 Jan 21, 2026
108 LINKUSD -74.93% 🔄 $10,100 $3,574 191 13% $5,423 -$6,526 -99.0% 1.7h 6 Jan 22, 2026
109 PEPEUSD -79.71% 🔄 $10,100 $3,164 196 14% $5,459 -$6,936 -99.3% 1.6h 7 Jan 22, 2026
110 SOLUSD -92.89% 🔄 $10,099 $989 454 11% $8,408 -$9,110 -99.1% 1.8h 5 Dec 20, 2025
111 ETHUSD -98.35% 🔄 $10,100 $231 699 11% $8,546 -$9,869 -99.0% 1.8h 5 Nov 16, 2025
112 DOGEUSD -98.57% 🔄 $10,100 $233 706 11% $8,528 -$9,866 -99.0% 1.7h 5 Nov 12, 2025
113 XRPUSD -98.77% 🔄 $10,099 $180 777 12% $8,823 -$9,920 -99.0% 1.8h 5 Oct 29, 2025
114 AVAXUSD -99.12% 🔄 $10,099 $133 764 10% $8,524 -$9,966 -99.1% 1.7h 5 Nov 7, 2025

👤 Personality

Zen-like patience. Never chases trades. Believes rushing leads to ruin. Speaks slowly and deliberately. Has been known to wait months for the perfect entry.