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Grace Crossover
2

Grace Crossover

The Patient One

📊 Swing Trader 📅 66 years old (Born 1960)

"The fast moving average is the heartbeat. The slow moving average is the breath. When heartbeat crosses breath, the market has made its decision."

Elegant woman in her mid-60s with silver hair in a neat bun. Minimalist wardrobe—black turtleneck, simple silver watch. Her desk is immaculate, containing only what is essential.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

📊 2 Years Performance: We gave Grace Crossover $10,000 and let him trade 114 symbols from Jan 1, 2024 to today. 🟢 LIVE

$10,301
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $10,000 (+$301)
+3.01%
2-Year ROI
29.6%
Win Rate
32,220
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

-1.5%
1 Month
-6.7%
3 Months
-6.2%
6 Months
-6.0%
YTD
-2.5%
1 Year

Equity Curve (2 Years)

Combined P&L across all 114 symbols

💰 Trading Activity (2 Years)

Stock Volume
$289,349,515
27,830 trades
Stock Fees
$0
✓ Commission FREE
Crypto Volume
$14,718,868
4,390 trades
Crypto Fees
$36,797
0.25% of volume

⚠️ Important Note: This simulation tests each symbol with its own $10K account (not pooled). Crypto symbols can show 40-75%+ fee drag due to high trade frequency.

Stocks are FREE on Alpaca, so the ~100 stock symbols have zero fee impact.

⚙️ Trading Strategy

EMA crossover - 9 EMA crossing 21 EMA signals entry

Monitors the 9-period and 21-period Exponential Moving Averages. When the fast EMA (9) crosses above the slow EMA (21), it signals bullish momentum and triggers a buy. The opposite cross triggers a sell.

🎯 Best Suited For

Stocks with clean trending behavior

"The trend is your friend until it bends."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets trend roughly 30% of the time—but that's where the big money is made. The crossover filters out noise and identifies when momentum has genuinely shifted.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php

📊 Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMAt = (Close × k) + (EMAt-1 × (1 - k))
Unlike SMA, EMA weighs recent prices more heavily. The multiplier k controls sensitivity.
k = Smoothing Factor = 2 ÷ (Period + 1)
For 9 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 10 = 0.20 (20% weight to current price)
For 21 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 22 ≈ 0.0909 (9.09% weight to current price)
First EMA = SMA of first n periods (seeding)
📚 Robert Goodell Brown's "Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction" (1963)

📊 Golden Cross (Buy Signal)

Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≤ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t > EMAslow,t)
The moment the fast EMA crosses ABOVE the slow EMA indicates bullish momentum shift.
EMA_fast = 9-period EMA (the "heartbeat")
EMA_slow = 21-period EMA (the "breath")
Cross detected: previous bar fast ≤ slow, current bar fast > slow
📚 Richard Donchian's trend-following system (1960s)

📊 Death Cross (Sell Signal)

Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≥ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t < EMAslow,t)
The moment the fast EMA crosses BELOW the slow EMA indicates bearish momentum shift.
Fast EMA falls below slow EMA = trend reversal
Exit signal overrides hold, even if target not reached
📚 Classic technical analysis, popularized by John Murphy

📉 Exit Conditions

• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.08 (+8% gain)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.95 (-5% loss)
• DEATH_CROSS: Fast EMA crosses below Slow EMA
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 60 days

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

FAST_EMA_PERIOD: 9
SLOW_EMA_PERIOD: 21
TARGET_GAIN_PCT: 8%
STOP_LOSS_PCT: -5%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS: 60
STARTING_CAPITAL: 10000

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: Richard Donchian, Father of Trend Following

Richard Donchian began trading in the 1930s but didn't formalize his moving average crossover systems until the 1960s. His insight was profound: you don't need to predict where markets will go—you only need to recognize when they've started going there.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 2 Years: May 6, 2024 May 6, 2026 (730 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite   60+ Good   40+ Fair   <40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot   60+ Active   40+ Moderate   <40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →
Rank Symbol Score Mom Return Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund Action
1 SOFI 51 40 +147.06% $10,000 $24,706 265 36% - +$14,706 -22.8% 11.5h -
2 PLTR 45 59 +119.74% $10,000 $21,974 271 32% - +$11,974 -23.6% 12.0h -
3 RIVN 38 13🧊 +113.77% $10,000 $21,377 279 34% - +$11,377 -33.5% 10.9h -
4 MARA 33 33 +98.71% $10,000 $19,871 284 30% - +$9,871 -35.1% 9.9h -
5 LCID 37 60🔥 +90.99% $10,000 $19,099 279 25% - +$9,099 -23.9% 10.4h -
6 HOOD 33 44 +64.20% $10,000 $16,420 274 32% - +$6,420 -21.5% 10.9h -
7 RIOT 29 52🔥 +62.74% $10,000 $16,274 270 30% - +$6,274 -34.2% 9.1h -
8 CSCO 59 57 +51.65% $10,000 $15,165 270 36% - +$5,165 -5.8% 11.6h -
9 GME 28 22 +46.58% $10,000 $14,658 287 29% - +$4,658 -22.2% 8.2h -
10 USO 35 14🧊 +44.90% $10,000 $14,490 266 36% - +$4,490 -11.7% 10.8h -
11 GS 42 56 +44.82% $10,000 $14,482 274 34% - +$4,482 -8.5% 10.1h -
12 SCHW 47 6🧊 +44.20% $10,000 $14,420 264 38% - +$4,420 -6.9% 10.9h -
13 UVXY 25 9 +43.73% $10,000 $14,373 292 25% - +$4,373 -23.5% 7.4h -
14 CRWD 28 7🧊 +43.00% $10,000 $14,300 262 34% - +$4,300 -20.9% 11.7h -
15 PANW 37 34 +42.40% $10,000 $14,240 275 32% - +$4,240 -10.2% 10.2h -
16 GLD 51 12🧊 +42.20% $10,000 $14,220 261 37% - +$4,220 -6.1% 12.6h -
17 PM 54 15🧊 +40.99% $10,000 $14,099 258 31% - +$4,099 -4.1% 12.3h -
18 WMT 46 31 +39.88% $10,000 $13,988 272 35% - +$3,988 -6.4% 14.1h -
19 LLY 29 41 +34.14% $10,000 $13,414 280 33% - +$3,414 -13.5% 10.7h -
20 CVX 32 42 +32.05% $10,000 $13,205 277 31% - +$3,205 -10.7% 11.2h -
21 VRTX 32 9🧊 +31.67% $10,000 $13,167 278 33% - +$3,167 -9.6% 11.3h -
22 SLV 27 9 +31.58% $10,000 $13,158 267 32% - +$3,158 -14.1% 11.3h -
23 AMGN 39 22 +30.02% $10,000 $13,002 284 34% - +$3,002 -5.9% 10.1h -
24 XLK 29 46 +28.23% $10,000 $12,823 268 35% - +$2,823 -13.1% 10.5h -
25 COIN 22 9 +27.44% $10,000 $12,744 277 30% - +$2,744 -23.0% 10.2h -
26 CRM 25 62🔥 +25.70% $10,000 $12,570 287 27% - +$2,570 -15.0% 9.6h -
27 WFC 27 6🧊 +23.90% $10,000 $12,390 272 33% - +$2,390 -10.6% 11.2h -
28 PEP 35 9🧊 +23.89% $10,000 $12,389 270 34% - +$2,389 -6.0% 11.3h -
29 DKNG 21 9 +23.63% $10,000 $12,363 281 34% - +$2,363 -25.0% 11.5h -
30 GOOGL 21 66🔥 +23.33% $10,000 $12,333 274 33% - +$2,333 -22.4% 10.5h -
31 XOM 30 36 +21.39% $10,000 $12,139 274 33% - +$2,139 -7.7% 11.2h -
32 SOXL 18 73🔥 +21.35% $10,000 $12,135 261 31% - +$2,135 -51.2% 11.0h -
33 JPM 25 9 +19.31% $10,000 $11,931 280 28% - +$1,931 -9.6% 10.5h -
34 INTC 19 71🔥 +17.47% $10,000 $11,747 283 28% - +$1,747 -21.5% 7.8h -
35 NFLX 21 9 +17.27% $10,000 $11,728 280 33% - +$1,728 -13.6% 11.4h -
36 COST 25 11 +16.73% $10,000 $11,673 278 29% - +$1,673 -8.3% 12.2h -
37 IWM 23 45🔥 +14.25% $10,000 $11,425 278 29% - +$1,425 -8.0% 9.6h -
38 QQQ 22 40 +13.93% $10,000 $11,393 259 34% - +$1,393 -9.3% 11.6h -
39 MU 15 62🔥 +13.59% $10,000 $11,359 251 29% - +$1,359 -48.4% 10.8h -
40 MS 20 15 +13.32% $10,000 $11,332 276 33% - +$1,332 -12.1% 8.7h -
41 ARKK 19 55🔥 +12.90% $10,000 $11,290 270 30% - +$1,290 -13.9% 11.5h -
42 MRK 18 9 +12.66% $10,000 $11,266 271 33% - +$1,266 -15.0% 11.4h -
43 AVGO 15 50🔥 +11.41% $10,000 $11,141 270 33% - +$1,141 -26.2% 12.5h -
44 SQQQ 15 9 +11.07% $10,000 $11,107 275 28% - +$1,107 -27.4% 9.4h -
45 SMCI 15 24 +10.61% $10,000 $11,061 282 25% - +$1,061 -43.0% 10.0h -
46 BLK 18 7 +9.15% $10,000 $10,915 266 35% - +$915 -8.6% 12.4h -
47 AXP 16 9 +9.06% $10,000 $10,906 278 32% - +$906 -17.9% 10.5h -
48 BAC 16 43🔥 +8.79% $10,000 $10,879 272 34% - +$879 -19.3% 10.2h -
49 C 16 9 +8.45% $10,000 $10,845 276 32% - +$845 -16.6% 10.1h -
50 KO 18 29 +7.27% $10,000 $10,727 263 31% - +$727 -6.4% 13.1h -
51 VOO 20 9 +7.21% $10,000 $10,721 265 32% - +$721 -4.8% 8.9h -
52 SPY 18 9 +7.13% $10,000 $10,713 264 31% - +$713 -6.4% 9.3h -
53 COP 16 5 +7.04% $10,000 $10,704 278 30% - +$704 -13.6% 9.7h -
54 NVDA 14 24 +6.95% $10,000 $10,695 275 29% - +$695 -30.4% 9.6h -
55 ISRG 15 10 +6.75% $10,000 $10,675 270 30% - +$675 -10.1% 11.6h -
56 PG 18 7 +6.72% $10,000 $10,672 270 26% - +$672 -4.6% 11.1h -
57 MA 15 35 +5.75% $10,000 $10,575 279 27% - +$575 -9.3% 9.0h -
58 SLB 12 9 +3.92% $10,000 $10,392 279 32% - +$392 -17.0% 9.5h -
59 MSFT 10 68🔥 +2.49% $10,000 $10,249 272 32% - +$249 -19.0% 11.5h -
60 XLF 10 9 +2.13% $10,000 $10,213 279 32% - +$213 -6.8% 10.7h -
61 AMZN 10 45🔥 +2.06% $10,000 $10,206 275 35% - +$206 -24.3% 11.0h -
62 ABBV 6 21 +0.69% $10,000 $10,069 277 32% - +$69 -20.2% 10.6h -
63 UNH 6 40🔥 +0.14% $10,000 $10,014 273 31% - +$14 -17.4% 9.8h -
64 BTCUSD +0.06% 🔄 $10,097 $104 2 100% $1 -$9,993 -99.1% 1.8h 45 Mar 4, 2026
65 CMCSA 6 9 -0.75% $10,000 $9,925 280 32% - -$75 -8.3% 10.3h -
66 DIA 5 9 -0.76% $10,000 $9,924 267 28% - -$76 -8.0% 11.1h -
67 HD 4 9 -1.12% $10,000 $9,888 273 29% - -$112 -11.0% 10.3h -
68 META 5 34🔥 -1.98% $10,000 $9,802 281 31% - -$198 -28.5% 9.8h -
69 JNJ 5 17 -2.31% $10,000 $9,769 267 29% - -$231 -10.9% 11.3h -
70 XLE 4 9 -2.32% $10,000 $9,768 281 30% - -$232 -13.2% 11.6h -
71 DIS 4 50🔥 -3.64% $10,000 $9,636 281 30% - -$364 -15.9% 8.6h -
72 VTI 5 21 -4.22% $10,000 $9,578 267 30% - -$422 -11.1% 8.5h -
73 BIIB 5 9 -5.23% $10,000 $9,477 285 28% - -$523 -21.8% 9.1h -
74 ORCL 5 6 -5.52% $10,000 $9,448 261 35% - -$552 -31.9% 11.8h -
75 PYPL 4 7 -5.83% $10,000 $9,417 260 29% - -$583 -14.2% 12.0h -
76 SNOW 4 23 -6.83% $10,000 $9,317 275 31% - -$683 -21.1% 10.3h -
77 AMD 5 74🔥 -7.18% $10,000 $9,282 278 29% - -$718 -38.6% 8.9h -
78 OXY 5 16 -7.63% $10,000 $9,237 281 30% - -$763 -14.1% 11.1h -
79 TLT 3 9 -7.77% $10,000 $9,223 268 34% - -$777 -7.1% 12.0h -
80 BMY 3 32🔥 -8.46% $10,000 $9,154 277 28% - -$846 -14.5% 9.3h -
81 MDT 4 7 -8.93% $10,000 $9,107 271 25% - -$893 -12.9% 12.0h -
82 BRK-B 3 6 -9.93% $10,000 $9,007 277 23% - -$993 -16.1% 10.0h -
83 NET 6 11 -10.05% $10,000 $8,995 271 30% - -$1,005 -27.1% 9.4h -
84 IBM 5 31🔥 -13.64% $10,000 $8,636 271 34% - -$1,364 -12.8% 9.8h -
85 ACN 4 9 -13.90% $10,000 $8,610 275 33% - -$1,390 -7.8% 11.9h -
86 V 3 7 -14.67% $10,000 $8,533 272 29% - -$1,467 -12.2% 10.0h -
87 TMO 4 7 -14.98% $10,000 $8,502 287 26% - -$1,498 -14.5% 9.4h -
88 RBLX 4 9 -15.96% $10,000 $8,404 277 32% - -$1,596 -23.0% 10.9h -
89 MCD 4 10 -16.16% $10,000 $8,384 280 30% - -$1,616 -16.7% 11.1h -
90 VZ 4 46🔥 -16.57% $10,000 $8,343 274 27% - -$1,657 -22.5% 13.2h -
91 PFE 4 12 -17.47% $10,000 $8,253 277 29% - -$1,747 -20.1% 11.0h -
92 AAPL 4 9 -17.62% $10,000 $8,238 275 28% - -$1,762 -16.9% 8.9h -
93 VXX 4 9 -18.88% $10,000 $8,112 290 24% - -$1,888 -42.2% 8.2h -
94 GILD 3 9 -19.91% $10,000 $8,009 280 25% - -$1,991 -19.1% 8.9h -
95 ADBE 3 7 -20.18% $10,000 $7,982 285 32% - -$2,018 -20.5% 12.0h -
96 SPXU 2 9 -20.18% $10,000 $7,982 123 30% - -$2,018 -29.7% 20.5h -
97 TQQQ 4 11 -23.82% $10,000 $7,618 265 33% - -$2,382 -36.1% 10.2h -
98 TSLA 4 9 -26.01% $10,000 $7,399 278 30% - -$2,601 -26.6% 10.7h -
99 REGN 2 9 -37.44% $10,000 $6,256 278 25% - -$3,744 -33.9% 8.9h -
100 NIO 2 7 -44.70% $10,000 $5,530 274 28% - -$4,470 -42.7% 8.8h -
101 SHIBUSD -47.74% 🔄 $10,099 $8,005 102 17% $4,270 -$2,094 -99.1% 1.7h 6 Feb 5, 2026
102 ARM 3 9 -49.06% $10,000 $5,094 266 30% - -$4,906 -53.7% 10.4h -
103 MRNA 3 61🔥 -49.40% $10,000 $5,060 286 29% - -$4,940 -67.6% 11.1h -
104 AMC 2 68🔥 -58.12% $10,000 $4,188 299 18% - -$5,812 -67.5% 9.0h -
105 DOTUSD -62.62% 🔄 $10,099 $5,827 124 15% $4,443 -$4,272 -99.1% 1.7h 6 Feb 1, 2026
106 LTCUSD -69.53% 🔄 $10,100 $4,765 166 12% $5,339 -$5,335 -99.1% 1.7h 6 Jan 26, 2026
107 UNIUSD -71.19% 🔄 $10,100 $4,103 209 13% $5,788 -$5,997 -99.0% 1.6h 6 Jan 21, 2026
108 LINKUSD -74.93% 🔄 $10,100 $3,574 191 13% $5,423 -$6,526 -99.0% 1.7h 6 Jan 22, 2026
109 PEPEUSD -79.71% 🔄 $10,100 $3,164 196 14% $5,459 -$6,936 -99.3% 1.6h 7 Jan 22, 2026
110 SOLUSD -92.89% 🔄 $10,099 $989 454 11% $8,408 -$9,110 -99.1% 1.8h 5 Dec 20, 2025
111 ETHUSD -98.35% 🔄 $10,100 $231 699 11% $8,546 -$9,869 -99.0% 1.8h 5 Nov 16, 2025
112 DOGEUSD -98.57% 🔄 $10,100 $233 706 11% $8,528 -$9,866 -99.0% 1.7h 5 Nov 12, 2025
113 XRPUSD -98.77% 🔄 $10,099 $180 777 12% $8,823 -$9,920 -99.0% 1.8h 5 Oct 29, 2025
114 AVAXUSD -99.12% 🔄 $10,099 $133 764 10% $8,524 -$9,966 -99.1% 1.7h 5 Nov 7, 2025

👤 Personality

Zen-like patience. Never chases trades. Believes rushing leads to ruin. Speaks slowly and deliberately. Has been known to wait months for the perfect entry.