Marcus Reversal

The Contrarian

📉 Swing Trader 📅 48 years old (Born 1978)

"When the RSI screams oversold and the masses run for the exits, I walk in through the front door with my checkbook open."

Distinguished gentleman with silver-streaked hair and reading glasses perpetually perched on his nose. Wears tweed jackets with elbow patches. Always carries a worn copy of Wilder's original book, annotated in three colors of ink.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

📊 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y

📈 Stocks 102 ₿ Crypto 12 🌐 All 114

Jun 24, 2024 → Jun 24, 2026 (730d)

📊 Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y

🎯 Asset: 📈 Stocks 102 ₿ Crypto 12 🌐 All 114

📊 2 Years Performance: We gave Marcus Reversal $10,000 and let him trade 114 symbols from Dec 31, 2023 to today. 🟢 LIVE

$13,193

Avg Value (per symbol)

Started at: $10,000 (+$3,193)

+31.93%

2-Year ROI

43.0%

Win Rate

12,490

Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

Equity Curve (2 Years)

Combined P&L across all 114 symbols

💰 Trading Activity (2 Years)

Stock Volume

$120,601,110

9,599 trades

Stock Fees

✓ Commission FREE

Crypto Volume

$12,551,803

2,891 trades

Crypto Fees

$31,380

0.25% of volume

⚠️ Important Note: This simulation tests each symbol with its own $10K account (not pooled). Crypto symbols can show 40-75%+ fee drag due to high trade frequency.

Stocks are FREE on Alpaca, so the ~100 stock symbols have zero fee impact.

⚙️ Trading Strategy

RSI mean reversion - buys when RSI < 30, sells when RSI > 70

Uses the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to identify oversold conditions. When RSI drops below 30, indicating extreme fear, Marcus enters long positions. He exits when RSI rises above 70, indicating greed.

🎯 Best Suited For

Volatile stocks with strong fundamentals

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets are driven by human emotion. Fear creates oversold conditions—prices drop faster and further than fundamentals justify. Marcus waits for this fear to peak (RSI < 30), then buys what everyone else is panic-selling.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/simulate-marcus.php

📊 Relative Strength Index (RSI)

                        RSI = 100 - (100 ÷ (1 + RS))                    

                            RS = Avg Gain ÷ Avg Loss (over 14 periods)                        

                            Avg Gain = SMA of gains, then smoothed: ((prev × 13) + current) ÷ 14                        

                            Avg Loss = SMA of losses, then smoothed: ((prev × 13) + current) ÷ 14

                    📁 calculateRSI() 
                    @ lines 404-448                

📊 Hammer Candle Pattern

1 Lower wick ≥ 2× body size

2 Upper wick ≤ body size

3 Lower wick ≥ 60% of total range

📊 Entry Signal

📈 Entry Signal

                        RSI < 30 AND Hammer Candle = TRUE                    

→ BUY at next candle open

📉 Exit Rules

                        • TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.05 (+5% gain)                    

                        • STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.90 (-10% loss)                    

                        • MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 30 days                    

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

                        RSI_PERIOD:
                        14
                    

                        RSI_OVERSOLD:
                        30
                    

                        TARGET_GAIN_PCT:
                        5%
                    

                        STOP_LOSS_PCT:
                        -10%
                    

                        MAX_HOLD_DAYS:
                        30
                    

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: J. Welles Wilder Jr.'s "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems"

J. Welles Wilder Jr. was not a trader—he was a mechanical engineer who looked at markets and saw machines that could be measured. In 1978, he published his masterwork, introducing the RSI alongside a dozen other indicators that would become industry standards.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 2 Years: Jun 24, 2024 → Jun 24, 2026 (730 days)

📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns

📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.

75+ Elite 60+ Good 40+ Fair <40 Weak

⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.

75+ Hot 60+ Active 40+ Moderate <40 Quiet

Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.

⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →

Rank	Symbol	Score	Mom	Return	Start	Final Value	Trades	Win Rate	Fees	Net	Max DD	Avg Hold	Refunds	Last Refund
1	SOXL 🔥 PRO	72	84	+775.26%	$10,000	$87,526	218	49%	-	+$77,526	-36.3%	1.6d	✓	-
2	MU	68	50	+419.13%	$10,000	$51,913	158	47%	-	+$41,913	-27.8%	3.5d	✓	-
3	PLTR	66	7🧊	+311.41%	$10,000	$41,141	163	46%	-	+$31,141	-28.0%	2.8d	✓	-
4	NET	56	21🧊	+221.80%	$10,000	$32,180	134	49%	-	+$22,180	-33.4%	4.1d	✓	-
5	CSCO	70	3🧊	+202.86%	$10,000	$30,286	51	63%	-	+$20,286	-9.1%	15.2d	✓	-
6	CRWD	56	3🧊	+194.74%	$10,000	$29,474	122	47%	-	+$19,474	-24.8%	4.4d	✓	-
7	SLV	65	3🧊	+186.16%	$10,000	$28,616	94	53%	-	+$18,616	-21.6%	7.3d	✓	-
8	GOOGL	55	0🧊	+156.46%	$10,000	$25,646	81	48%	-	+$15,646	-25.2%	7.9d	✓	-
9	AMD	40	47	+147.28%	$10,000	$24,728	149	45%	-	+$14,728	-43.0%	3.3d	✓	-
10	GLD	66	1🧊	+119.56%	$10,000	$21,956	48	60%	-	+$11,956	-6.1%	15.7d	✓	-
11	GS	53	5🧊	+113.71%	$10,000	$21,371	74	50%	-	+$11,371	-15.7%	9.6d	✓	-
12	NVDA	34	5🧊	+99.31%	$10,000	$19,931	121	42%	-	+$9,931	-43.7%	3.8d	✓	-
13	ARM	37	9🧊	+98.89%	$10,000	$19,889	169	41%	-	+$9,889	-31.3%	2.7d	✓	-
14	C	39	53	+94.48%	$10,000	$19,448	79	48%	-	+$9,448	-29.6%	8.3d	✓	-
15	NFLX	36	1🧊	+92.14%	$10,000	$19,214	69	43%	-	+$9,214	-32.4%	9.5d	✓	-
16	JPM	42	27	+91.64%	$10,000	$19,164	57	51%	-	+$9,164	-20.8%	10.9d	✓	-
17	PANW	37	27	+81.71%	$10,000	$18,171	94	48%	-	+$8,171	-29.0%	7.1d	✓	-
18	AAPL	38	—	+80.63%	$10,000	$18,063	62	50%	-	+$8,063	-21.5%	10.1d	✓	-
19	SCHW	49	37	+75.64%	$10,000	$17,564	58	53%	-	+$7,564	-10.8%	11.7d	✓	-
20	WMT	38	—	+75.54%	$10,000	$17,554	51	49%	-	+$7,554	-17.6%	14.4d	✓	-
21	XLK	37	32	+72.65%	$10,000	$17,265	63	48%	-	+$7,265	-25.5%	11.5d	✓	-
22	SNOW	27	33	+68.02%	$10,000	$16,802	125	42%	-	+$6,802	-43.4%	4.9d	✓	-
23	AMZN	36	3🧊	+64.64%	$10,000	$16,464	82	44%	-	+$6,464	-18.5%	8.3d	✓	-
24	OXY	32	3🧊	+63.55%	$10,000	$16,355	89	46%	-	+$6,355	-28.6%	8.2d	✓	-
25	IBM	36	6🧊	+63.48%	$10,000	$16,348	74	49%	-	+$6,348	-17.7%	10.0d	✓	-
26	QQQ	34	0🧊	+56.13%	$10,000	$15,613	44	55%	-	+$5,613	-29.6%	15.7d	✓	-
27	SPY	42	—	+55.73%	$10,000	$15,573	37	57%	-	+$5,573	-12.7%	18.7d	✓	-
28	META	31	18	+55.27%	$10,000	$15,527	91	42%	-	+$5,527	-26.1%	6.9d	✓	-
29	JNJ	36	—	+53.67%	$10,000	$15,367	42	57%	-	+$5,367	-13.8%	16.3d	✓	-
30	SLB	32	3🧊	+52.36%	$10,000	$15,236	83	45%	-	+$5,236	-22.2%	8.1d	✓	-
31	VOO	39	—	+51.76%	$10,000	$15,176	37	57%	-	+$5,176	-15.4%	18.9d	✓	-
32	COST	31	1🧊	+51.37%	$10,000	$15,137	53	43%	-	+$5,137	-19.7%	13.0d	✓	-
33	AXP	29	—	+49.52%	$10,000	$14,952	60	45%	-	+$4,952	-27.6%	10.6d	✓	-
34	TSLA	26	5🧊	+49.29%	$10,000	$14,929	156	45%	-	+$4,929	-34.1%	2.9d	✓	-
35	CVX	35	1🧊	+48.27%	$10,000	$14,827	55	51%	-	+$4,827	-13.5%	13.2d	✓	-
36	VTI	37	—	+48.26%	$10,000	$14,826	34	62%	-	+$4,826	-16.1%	20.8d	✓	-
37	BAC	29	—	+46.69%	$10,000	$14,669	61	46%	-	+$4,669	-21.4%	9.5d	✓	-
38	GME	23	6	+43.54%	$10,000	$14,354	126	40%	-	+$4,354	-32.0%	2.9d	✓	-
39	IWM	29	—	+41.86%	$10,000	$14,186	49	49%	-	+$4,186	-23.6%	13.7d	✓	-
40	MSFT	28	2🧊	+41.23%	$10,000	$14,123	56	43%	-	+$4,123	-21.2%	13.3d	✓	-
41	SOFI	26	6	+41.20%	$10,000	$14,120	164	43%	-	+$4,120	-35.6%	2.7d	✓	-
42	XLF	34	—	+40.29%	$10,000	$14,029	40	55%	-	+$4,029	-11.5%	17.6d	✓	-
43	UVXY	21	23	+39.91%	$10,000	$13,991	214	41%	-	+$3,991	-50.0%	1.6d	✓	-
44	AVGO	24	6	+38.67%	$10,000	$13,867	130	40%	-	+$3,867	-27.0%	3.7d	✓	-
45	VXX	23	5	+36.95%	$10,000	$13,695	163	41%	-	+$3,695	-32.2%	2.9d	✓	-
46	MS	25	31	+36.81%	$10,000	$13,681	72	46%	-	+$3,681	-29.2%	9.0d	✓	-
47	GILD	25	0🧊	+35.49%	$10,000	$13,549	67	45%	-	+$3,549	-20.9%	10.3d	✓	-
48	BLK	27	0🧊	+33.58%	$10,000	$13,358	59	51%	-	+$3,358	-17.2%	12.3d	✓	-
49	WFC	25	53🔥	+32.39%	$10,000	$13,239	70	44%	-	+$3,239	-25.5%	8.9d	✓	-
50	BRK-B	26	—	+31.48%	$10,000	$13,148	41	46%	-	+$3,148	-15.7%	16.3d	✓	-
51	KO	29	3🧊	+31.46%	$10,000	$13,146	36	53%	-	+$3,146	-13.1%	18.7d	✓	-
52	ARKK	21	3	+27.52%	$10,000	$12,752	107	44%	-	+$2,752	-26.4%	5.4d	✓	-
53	INTC	19	46🔥	+25.93%	$10,000	$12,593	157	41%	-	+$2,593	-58.2%	3.6d	✓	-
54	MA	25	0🧊	+24.06%	$10,000	$12,406	51	45%	-	+$2,406	-11.3%	13.9d	✓	-
55	ABBV	22	0🧊	+22.18%	$10,000	$12,218	62	44%	-	+$2,218	-17.7%	11.9d	✓	-
56	VZ	22	0🧊	+21.79%	$10,000	$12,179	49	43%	-	+$2,179	-14.2%	14.1d	✓	-
57	VRTX	18	—	+21.08%	$10,000	$12,108	66	44%	-	+$2,108	-25.6%	10.7d	✓	-
58	PM	21	1	+20.86%	$10,000	$12,086	56	43%	-	+$2,086	-21.9%	12.3d	✓	-
59	V	19	—	+19.02%	$10,000	$11,902	48	44%	-	+$1,902	-14.4%	14.2d	✓	-
60	DIA	24	—	+18.37%	$10,000	$11,837	35	54%	-	+$1,837	-20.7%	20.9d	✓	-
61	LLY	18	6	+18.36%	$10,000	$11,836	92	39%	-	+$1,836	-36.7%	6.7d	✓	-
62	USO	23	3	+15.23%	$10,000	$11,523	96	42%	-	+$1,523	-18.0%	8.8d	✓	-
63	MDT	18	—	+13.65%	$10,000	$11,365	49	45%	-	+$1,365	-12.1%	13.7d	✓	-
64	XOM	20	0	+12.84%	$10,000	$11,284	62	44%	-	+$1,284	-18.5%	11.9d	✓	-
65	DIS	16	0	+12.07%	$10,000	$11,207	55	42%	-	+$1,207	-24.9%	11.6d	✓	-
66	COP	16	1	+11.09%	$10,000	$11,109	74	42%	-	+$1,109	-20.6%	9.4d	✓	-
67	LCID	15	9	+11.07%	$10,000	$11,107	198	38%	-	+$1,107	-38.4%	1.9d	✓	-
68	ORCL	14	6	+4.08%	$10,000	$10,408	131	37%	-	+$408	-51.2%	5.2d	✓	-
69	RBLX	12	2	+3.27%	$10,000	$10,327	135	44%	-	+$327	-46.8%	3.9d	✓	-
70	MCD	11	—	+1.91%	$10,000	$10,191	43	51%	-	+$191	-12.9%	16.0d	✓	-
71	SOLUSD ₿	—	—	-1.07%	🔄 $10,092	$11,098	27	44%	$1,398	+$1,006	-99.5%	21.3h	1	Feb 6, 2026
72	XLE	5	0	-3.62%	$10,000	$9,638	58	40%	-	-$362	-24.7%	12.5d	✓	-
73	SPXU	4	43🔥	-4.09%	$10,000	$9,591	76	43%	-	-$409	-30.0%	5.6d	✓	-
74	AMGN	4	—	-8.02%	$10,000	$9,198	55	38%	-	-$802	-28.3%	11.3d	✓	-
75	ISRG	4	1	-8.87%	$10,000	$9,113	71	35%	-	-$887	-35.0%	8.4d	✓	-
76	TQQQ	6	9	-8.93%	$10,000	$9,107	151	41%	-	-$893	-40.9%	3.1d	✓	-
77	PG	4	—	-9.32%	$10,000	$9,068	43	35%	-	-$932	-24.4%	16.2d	✓	-
78	BMY	5	0	-11.21%	$10,000	$8,879	75	40%	-	-$1,121	-28.4%	7.9d	✓	-
79	RIOT	5	49🔥	-12.48%	$10,000	$8,752	231	42%	-	-$1,248	-51.3%	1.3d	✓	-
80	TMO	4	—	-13.66%	$10,000	$8,634	61	34%	-	-$1,366	-28.6%	11.0d	✓	-
81	PEP	4	—	-13.75%	$10,000	$8,625	39	38%	-	-$1,375	-23.1%	16.8d	✓	-
82	MRNA	5	6	-15.67%	$10,000	$8,433	188	41%	-	-$1,567	-73.8%	2.3d	✓	-
83	HD	5	30🔥	-15.87%	$10,000	$8,413	61	34%	-	-$1,587	-19.9%	12.1d	✓	-
84	MRK	4	1	-17.95%	$10,000	$8,205	69	35%	-	-$1,795	-45.0%	9.8d	✓	-
85	PFE	5	—	-17.95%	$10,000	$8,205	53	42%	-	-$1,795	-23.5%	10.8d	✓	-
86	PYPL	6	1	-18.35%	$10,000	$8,165	77	42%	-	-$1,835	-35.9%	7.8d	✓	-
87	HOOD	5	6	-26.24%	$10,000	$7,376	174	39%	-	-$2,624	-45.6%	2.2d	✓	-
88	TLT	4	—	-28.73%	$10,000	$7,127	33	36%	-	-$2,873	-27.7%	20.2d	✓	-
89	CRM	5	3	-32.25%	$10,000	$6,775	92	36%	-	-$3,225	-48.1%	7.3d	✓	-
90	DKNG	4	3	-33.64%	$10,000	$6,636	131	35%	-	-$3,364	-50.2%	4.1d	✓	-
91	BIIB	4	—	-36.07%	$10,000	$6,393	74	36%	-	-$3,607	-46.7%	7.5d	✓	-
92	UNH	6	—	-37.60%	$10,000	$6,240	81	46%	-	-$3,760	-54.0%	7.3d	✓	-
93	NIO	4	5	-40.16%	$10,000	$5,984	168	38%	-	-$4,016	-51.1%	2.6d	✓	-
94	REGN	5	0	-41.79%	$10,000	$5,821	86	35%	-	-$4,179	-50.1%	7.6d	✓	-
95	RIVN	4	16	-42.08%	$10,000	$5,792	185	38%	-	-$4,208	-51.0%	2.2d	✓	-
96	COIN	5	7	-43.84%	$10,000	$5,616	203	35%	-	-$4,384	-53.5%	1.8d	✓	-
97	DOGEUSD ₿	—	—	-44.09%	🔄 $10,100	$6,228	35	29%	$1,312	-$3,872	-99.3%	18.0h	1	Jan 31, 2026
98	CMCSA	5	0	-47.27%	$10,000	$5,273	59	34%	-	-$4,727	-36.1%	11.9d	✓	-
99	ADBE	4	3	-48.10%	$10,000	$5,190	80	33%	-	-$4,810	-42.0%	8.2d	✓	-
100	LINKUSD ₿	—	—	-50.57%	🔄 $10,097	$5,361	69	33%	$2,618	-$4,736	-99.3%	19.5h	1	Dec 1, 2025
101	SHIBUSD ₿	—	—	-52.15%	🔄 $10,099	$5,282	65	31%	$2,493	-$4,816	-99.5%	19.9h	1	Dec 18, 2025
102	MARA	5	46🔥	-52.37%	$10,000	$4,763	228	38%	-	-$5,237	-58.2%	1.3d	✓	-
103	PEPEUSD ₿	—	—	-58.97%	🔄 $10,097	$4,829	95	34%	$4,168	-$5,268	-99.9%	10.8h	1	Dec 18, 2025
104	SQQQ	3	7	-60.52%	$10,000	$3,948	172	34%	-	-$6,052	-66.3%	2.8d	✓	-
105	AMC	4	15	-61.69%	$10,000	$3,831	164	38%	-	-$6,169	-59.9%	2.4d	✓	-
106	ACN	3	5	-63.76%	$10,000	$3,624	77	29%	-	-$6,376	-45.0%	9.3d	✓	-
107	BTCUSD ₿	4	9	-70.46%	$10,000	$2,954	261	39%	$12,931	-$7,046	-78.6%	2.4d	✓	-
108	UNIUSD ₿	—	—	-81.71%	🔄 $10,098	$2,081	187	34%	$5,345	-$8,017	-99.3%	16.8h	1	Sep 25, 2025
109	AVAXUSD ₿	—	—	-83.06%	🔄 $10,099	$1,854	231	36%	$8,581	-$8,245	-99.1%	18.6h	1	Jun 22, 2025
110	DOTUSD ₿	—	—	-84.30%	🔄 $10,099	$1,767	236	36%	$8,684	-$8,332	-99.1%	21.7h	1	Jun 21, 2025
111	SMCI	4	9	-84.46%	$10,000	$1,554	193	33%	-	-$8,446	-88.9%	1.9d	✓	-
112	LTCUSD ₿	2	10	-96.40%	$10,000	$360	571	40%	$10,429	-$9,640	-95.7%	1.1d	✓	-
113	XRPUSD ₿	3	10	-97.57%	$10,000	$243	623	39%	$12,837	-$9,757	-96.4%	1.1d	✓	-
114	ETHUSD ₿	2	10	-97.62%	$10,000	$238	491	36%	$9,953	-$9,762	-98.0%	1.4d	✓	-

👤 Personality

Calm, patient, slightly smug. Speaks in measured tones. Has seen every crash since his birth in 1978 and survived them all. Drinks single malt scotch. Never raises his voice, even when markets are in freefall.

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