Marcus Reversal

The Contrarian

📉 Swing Trader 📅 48 years old (Born 1978)

"When the RSI screams oversold and the masses run for the exits, I walk in through the front door with my checkbook open."

Distinguished gentleman with silver-streaked hair and reading glasses perpetually perched on his nose. Wears tweed jackets with elbow patches. Always carries a worn copy of Wilder's original book, annotated in three colors of ink.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

📊 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y

📈 Stocks 102 ₿ Crypto 12 🌐 All 114

May 6, 2024 → May 6, 2026 (730d)

📊 Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y

🎯 Asset: 📈 Stocks 102 ₿ Crypto 12 🌐 All 114

📊 2 Years Performance: We gave Marcus Reversal $10,000 and let him trade 114 symbols from Dec 31, 2023 to today. 🟢 LIVE

$12,836

Avg Value (per symbol)

Started at: $10,000 (+$2,836)

+28.36%

2-Year ROI

43.6%

Win Rate

12,188

Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

Equity Curve (2 Years)

Combined P&L across all 114 symbols

💰 Trading Activity (2 Years)

Stock Volume

$113,755,512

9,321 trades

Stock Fees

✓ Commission FREE

Crypto Volume

$12,905,789

2,867 trades

Crypto Fees

$32,264

0.25% of volume

⚠️ Important Note: This simulation tests each symbol with its own $10K account (not pooled). Crypto symbols can show 40-75%+ fee drag due to high trade frequency.

Stocks are FREE on Alpaca, so the ~100 stock symbols have zero fee impact.

⚙️ Trading Strategy

RSI mean reversion - buys when RSI < 30, sells when RSI > 70

Uses the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to identify oversold conditions. When RSI drops below 30, indicating extreme fear, Marcus enters long positions. He exits when RSI rises above 70, indicating greed.

🎯 Best Suited For

Volatile stocks with strong fundamentals

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets are driven by human emotion. Fear creates oversold conditions—prices drop faster and further than fundamentals justify. Marcus waits for this fear to peak (RSI < 30), then buys what everyone else is panic-selling.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/simulate-marcus.php

📊 Relative Strength Index (RSI)

                        RSI = 100 - (100 ÷ (1 + RS))                    

                            RS = Avg Gain ÷ Avg Loss (over 14 periods)                        

                            Avg Gain = SMA of gains, then smoothed: ((prev × 13) + current) ÷ 14                        

                            Avg Loss = SMA of losses, then smoothed: ((prev × 13) + current) ÷ 14

                    📁 calculateRSI() 
                    @ lines 404-448                

📊 Hammer Candle Pattern

1 Lower wick ≥ 2× body size

2 Upper wick ≤ body size

3 Lower wick ≥ 60% of total range

📊 Entry Signal

📈 Entry Signal

                        RSI < 30 AND Hammer Candle = TRUE                    

→ BUY at next candle open

📉 Exit Rules

                        • TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.05 (+5% gain)                    

                        • STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.90 (-10% loss)                    

                        • MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 30 days                    

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

                        RSI_PERIOD:
                        14
                    

                        RSI_OVERSOLD:
                        30
                    

                        TARGET_GAIN_PCT:
                        5%
                    

                        STOP_LOSS_PCT:
                        -10%
                    

                        MAX_HOLD_DAYS:
                        30
                    

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: J. Welles Wilder Jr.'s "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems"

J. Welles Wilder Jr. was not a trader—he was a mechanical engineer who looked at markets and saw machines that could be measured. In 1978, he published his masterwork, introducing the RSI alongside a dozen other indicators that would become industry standards.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 2 Years: May 6, 2024 → May 6, 2026 (730 days)

📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns

📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.

75+ Elite 60+ Good 40+ Fair <40 Weak

⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.

75+ Hot 60+ Active 40+ Moderate <40 Quiet

Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.

⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →

Rank	Symbol	Score	Mom	Return	Start	Final Value	Trades	Win Rate	Fees	Net	Max DD	Avg Hold	Refunds	Last Refund
1	PLTR	69	6🧊	+420.02%	$10,000	$52,002	159	48%	-	+$42,002	-28.0%	2.8d	✓	-
2	SOXL	68	73	+387.96%	$10,000	$48,796	213	48%	-	+$38,796	-36.3%	1.6d	✓	-
3	MU	68	87	+355.45%	$10,000	$45,545	151	47%	-	+$35,545	-27.8%	3.5d	✓	-
4	SLV	73	20🧊	+244.98%	$10,000	$34,498	90	54%	-	+$24,498	-21.6%	7.3d	✓	-
5	NET	54	77🔥	+201.35%	$10,000	$30,135	128	49%	-	+$20,135	-33.4%	4.1d	✓	-
6	GOOGL	57	60	+168.16%	$10,000	$26,816	79	51%	-	+$16,816	-25.2%	7.9d	✓	-
7	CRWD	51	69	+154.70%	$10,000	$25,470	118	47%	-	+$15,470	-24.8%	4.4d	✓	-
8	GLD	68	—	+141.59%	$10,000	$24,159	45	64%	-	+$14,159	-6.1%	15.7d	✓	-
9	CSCO	68	30🧊	+137.71%	$10,000	$23,771	49	63%	-	+$13,771	-9.1%	15.2d	✓	-
10	NFLX	40	2🧊	+120.03%	$10,000	$22,003	68	49%	-	+$12,003	-32.4%	9.5d	✓	-
11	GS	49	—	+109.62%	$10,000	$20,962	69	51%	-	+$10,962	-15.7%	9.6d	✓	-
12	NVDA	34	56🔥	+97.61%	$10,000	$19,761	117	44%	-	+$9,761	-43.7%	3.8d	✓	-
13	AMZN	46	60	+95.51%	$10,000	$19,551	78	47%	-	+$9,551	-18.5%	8.3d	✓	-
14	WMT	44	29	+87.10%	$10,000	$18,710	49	53%	-	+$8,710	-17.6%	14.4d	✓	-
15	JPM	37	—	+83.83%	$10,000	$18,383	56	50%	-	+$8,383	-20.8%	10.9d	✓	-
16	OXY	36	5🧊	+83.36%	$10,000	$18,336	83	47%	-	+$8,336	-28.6%	8.2d	✓	-
17	C	35	32	+76.43%	$10,000	$17,643	77	47%	-	+$7,643	-29.6%	8.3d	✓	-
18	AAPL	36	59🔥	+68.94%	$10,000	$16,894	62	50%	-	+$6,894	-21.5%	10.1d	✓	-
19	ARM	30	34	+64.57%	$10,000	$16,457	164	42%	-	+$6,457	-31.3%	2.7d	✓	-
20	AMD	28	68🔥	+64.20%	$10,000	$16,420	140	43%	-	+$6,420	-43.0%	3.3d	✓	-
21	IBM	35	0🧊	+64.13%	$10,000	$16,413	65	51%	-	+$6,413	-17.7%	10.0d	✓	-
22	SCHW	44	15🧊	+63.40%	$10,000	$16,340	58	52%	-	+$6,340	-10.8%	11.7d	✓	-
23	COST	33	28	+57.92%	$10,000	$15,792	50	48%	-	+$5,792	-19.7%	13.0d	✓	-
24	AVGO	29	69🔥	+56.50%	$10,000	$15,650	128	41%	-	+$5,650	-27.0%	3.7d	✓	-
25	CVX	38	1🧊	+56.27%	$10,000	$15,627	51	51%	-	+$5,627	-13.5%	13.2d	✓	-
26	GME	27	29	+55.62%	$10,000	$15,562	140	42%	-	+$5,562	-32.0%	2.9d	✓	-
27	META	29	12	+54.71%	$10,000	$15,471	86	43%	-	+$5,471	-26.1%	6.9d	✓	-
28	SLB	31	29	+53.12%	$10,000	$15,312	79	44%	-	+$5,312	-22.2%	8.1d	✓	-
29	TSLA	27	57🔥	+52.24%	$10,000	$15,224	151	46%	-	+$5,224	-34.1%	2.9d	✓	-
30	MSFT	31	52🔥	+51.38%	$10,000	$15,138	54	46%	-	+$5,138	-21.2%	13.3d	✓	-
31	XLK	30	53🔥	+50.58%	$10,000	$15,058	57	47%	-	+$5,058	-25.5%	11.5d	✓	-
32	QQQ	33	53	+49.42%	$10,000	$14,942	43	58%	-	+$4,942	-29.6%	15.7d	✓	-
33	AXP	29	37	+49.23%	$10,000	$14,923	60	45%	-	+$4,923	-27.6%	10.6d	✓	-
34	JNJ	34	—	+47.72%	$10,000	$14,772	39	56%	-	+$4,772	-13.8%	16.3d	✓	-
35	SPY	37	—	+46.11%	$10,000	$14,611	37	57%	-	+$4,611	-12.7%	18.7d	✓	-
36	VTI	37	—	+45.39%	$10,000	$14,539	34	65%	-	+$4,539	-16.1%	20.8d	✓	-
37	PANW	28	70🔥	+45.28%	$10,000	$14,528	91	47%	-	+$4,528	-29.0%	7.1d	✓	-
38	VXX	24	3🧊	+45.07%	$10,000	$14,507	163	41%	-	+$4,507	-32.2%	2.9d	✓	-
39	VOO	34	—	+42.46%	$10,000	$14,246	37	57%	-	+$4,246	-15.4%	18.9d	✓	-
40	SOFI	25	28	+40.41%	$10,000	$14,041	157	43%	-	+$4,041	-35.6%	2.7d	✓	-
41	UVXY	21	7	+38.46%	$10,000	$13,846	212	41%	-	+$3,846	-50.0%	1.6d	✓	-
42	SNOW	23	7	+38.18%	$10,000	$13,818	118	41%	-	+$3,818	-43.4%	4.9d	✓	-
43	USO	29	12	+38.12%	$10,000	$13,812	86	44%	-	+$3,812	-18.0%	8.8d	✓	-
44	BLK	28	30	+37.71%	$10,000	$13,771	56	52%	-	+$3,771	-17.2%	12.3d	✓	-
45	XLF	31	—	+36.73%	$10,000	$13,673	40	55%	-	+$3,673	-11.5%	17.6d	✓	-
46	BAC	24	—	+36.41%	$10,000	$13,641	60	45%	-	+$3,641	-21.4%	9.5d	✓	-
47	IWM	25	—	+36.31%	$10,000	$13,631	48	48%	-	+$3,631	-23.6%	13.7d	✓	-
48	XOM	26	1🧊	+34.08%	$10,000	$13,408	57	46%	-	+$3,408	-18.5%	11.9d	✓	-
49	KO	30	—	+32.48%	$10,000	$13,248	35	51%	-	+$3,248	-13.1%	18.7d	✓	-
50	GILD	23	0🧊	+29.26%	$10,000	$12,926	63	44%	-	+$2,926	-20.9%	10.3d	✓	-
51	MA	26	20	+25.61%	$10,000	$12,561	50	46%	-	+$2,561	-11.3%	13.9d	✓	-
52	BRK-B	23	—	+24.70%	$10,000	$12,470	41	44%	-	+$2,470	-15.7%	16.3d	✓	-
53	V	22	29	+22.66%	$10,000	$12,266	49	45%	-	+$2,266	-14.4%	14.2d	✓	-
54	ARKK	20	51🔥	+21.61%	$10,000	$12,161	102	43%	-	+$2,161	-26.4%	5.4d	✓	-
55	COP	20	2	+21.44%	$10,000	$12,144	70	41%	-	+$2,144	-20.6%	9.4d	✓	-
56	ABBV	22	0🧊	+21.18%	$10,000	$12,118	60	45%	-	+$2,118	-17.7%	11.9d	✓	-
57	INTC	17	77🔥	+20.18%	$10,000	$12,018	144	42%	-	+$2,018	-58.2%	3.6d	✓	-
58	VZ	20	0	+19.24%	$10,000	$11,924	48	42%	-	+$1,924	-14.2%	14.1d	✓	-
59	PM	20	—	+19.08%	$10,000	$11,908	53	45%	-	+$1,908	-21.9%	12.3d	✓	-
60	MS	18	—	+18.57%	$10,000	$11,857	69	43%	-	+$1,857	-29.2%	9.0d	✓	-
61	WFC	19	21	+17.34%	$10,000	$11,734	69	42%	-	+$1,734	-25.5%	8.9d	✓	-
62	LLY	17	3	+15.03%	$10,000	$11,503	90	41%	-	+$1,503	-36.7%	6.7d	✓	-
63	MDT	18	0	+13.61%	$10,000	$11,361	49	45%	-	+$1,361	-12.1%	13.7d	✓	-
64	LCID	16	9	+13.33%	$10,000	$11,333	192	38%	-	+$1,333	-38.4%	1.9d	✓	-
65	ORCL	16	5	+12.94%	$10,000	$11,294	119	37%	-	+$1,294	-51.2%	5.2d	✓	-
66	DIA	19	—	+12.61%	$10,000	$11,261	35	51%	-	+$1,261	-20.7%	20.9d	✓	-
67	VRTX	15	—	+10.85%	$10,000	$11,085	64	45%	-	+$1,085	-25.6%	10.7d	✓	-
68	DIS	15	30	+10.71%	$10,000	$11,071	53	40%	-	+$1,071	-24.9%	11.6d	✓	-
69	ISRG	12	0	+7.16%	$10,000	$10,716	69	41%	-	+$716	-35.0%	8.4d	✓	-
70	MCD	15	0	+5.18%	$10,000	$10,518	43	51%	-	+$518	-12.9%	16.0d	✓	-
71	XLE	12	2	+4.39%	$10,000	$10,439	55	40%	-	+$439	-24.7%	12.5d	✓	-
72	SOLUSD ₿	—	—	-1.07%	🔄 $10,092	$11,098	27	44%	$1,398	+$1,006	-99.5%	21.3h	1	Feb 6, 2026
73	RBLX	7	9	-1.22%	$10,000	$9,878	132	43%	-	-$122	-46.8%	3.9d	✓	-
74	PEP	4	—	-5.06%	$10,000	$9,494	38	39%	-	-$506	-23.1%	16.8d	✓	-
75	TQQQ	6	53🔥	-8.33%	$10,000	$9,167	141	42%	-	-$833	-40.9%	3.1d	✓	-
76	PYPL	6	11	-8.54%	$10,000	$9,146	76	42%	-	-$854	-35.9%	7.8d	✓	-
77	PG	5	0	-8.93%	$10,000	$9,107	43	37%	-	-$893	-24.4%	16.2d	✓	-
78	PFE	5	—	-8.98%	$10,000	$9,102	54	44%	-	-$898	-23.5%	10.8d	✓	-
79	SPXU	3	1	-9.69%	$10,000	$9,031	72	42%	-	-$969	-30.0%	5.6d	✓	-
80	AMGN	4	0	-9.82%	$10,000	$9,018	55	38%	-	-$982	-28.3%	11.3d	✓	-
81	MRNA	5	17	-10.81%	$10,000	$8,919	185	42%	-	-$1,081	-73.8%	2.3d	✓	-
82	BMY	4	0	-11.89%	$10,000	$8,811	75	39%	-	-$1,189	-28.4%	7.9d	✓	-
83	HD	5	1	-12.96%	$10,000	$8,704	58	36%	-	-$1,296	-19.9%	12.1d	✓	-
84	HOOD	5	6	-13.81%	$10,000	$8,619	175	40%	-	-$1,381	-45.6%	2.2d	✓	-
85	TMO	4	—	-14.18%	$10,000	$8,582	58	34%	-	-$1,418	-28.6%	11.0d	✓	-
86	CRM	6	19	-16.23%	$10,000	$8,377	88	40%	-	-$1,623	-48.1%	7.3d	✓	-
87	MRK	4	0	-22.08%	$10,000	$7,792	64	34%	-	-$2,208	-45.0%	9.8d	✓	-
88	NIO	4	54🔥	-22.59%	$10,000	$7,741	165	39%	-	-$2,259	-51.1%	2.6d	✓	-
89	COIN	5	9	-24.72%	$10,000	$7,528	203	37%	-	-$2,472	-53.5%	1.8d	✓	-
90	TLT	4	—	-28.72%	$10,000	$7,128	33	39%	-	-$2,872	-27.7%	20.2d	✓	-
91	DKNG	4	14	-29.32%	$10,000	$7,068	127	36%	-	-$2,932	-50.2%	4.1d	✓	-
92	REGN	5	—	-32.94%	$10,000	$6,706	84	37%	-	-$3,294	-50.1%	7.6d	✓	-
93	BIIB	4	33🔥	-35.17%	$10,000	$6,483	76	37%	-	-$3,517	-46.7%	7.5d	✓	-
94	RIOT	4	37🔥	-36.21%	$10,000	$6,379	229	41%	-	-$3,621	-51.3%	1.3d	✓	-
95	UNH	6	61🔥	-39.47%	$10,000	$6,053	81	46%	-	-$3,947	-54.0%	7.3d	✓	-
96	ADBE	4	34🔥	-39.54%	$10,000	$6,046	76	36%	-	-$3,954	-42.0%	8.2d	✓	-
97	CMCSA	5	1	-40.20%	$10,000	$5,980	57	37%	-	-$4,020	-36.1%	11.9d	✓	-
98	RIVN	4	33🔥	-42.71%	$10,000	$5,729	183	39%	-	-$4,271	-51.0%	2.2d	✓	-
99	DOGEUSD ₿	—	—	-44.09%	🔄 $10,100	$6,228	35	29%	$1,312	-$3,872	-99.3%	18.0h	1	Jan 31, 2026
100	LINKUSD ₿	—	—	-50.57%	🔄 $10,097	$5,361	69	33%	$2,618	-$4,736	-99.3%	19.5h	1	Dec 1, 2025
101	SHIBUSD ₿	—	—	-52.15%	🔄 $10,099	$5,282	65	31%	$2,493	-$4,816	-99.5%	19.9h	1	Dec 18, 2025
102	SQQQ	3	6	-53.81%	$10,000	$4,619	164	34%	-	-$5,381	-66.3%	2.8d	✓	-
103	ACN	3	0	-54.46%	$10,000	$4,554	71	31%	-	-$5,446	-45.0%	9.3d	✓	-
104	AMC	3	9	-55.71%	$10,000	$4,429	167	37%	-	-$5,571	-59.9%	2.4d	✓	-
105	PEPEUSD ₿	—	—	-58.97%	🔄 $10,097	$4,829	95	34%	$4,168	-$5,268	-99.9%	10.8h	1	Dec 18, 2025
106	BTCUSD ₿	5	72🔥	-62.21%	$10,000	$3,779	259	40%	$12,692	-$6,221	-78.6%	2.4d	✓	-
107	MARA	4	7	-63.82%	$10,000	$3,618	228	36%	-	-$6,382	-58.2%	1.3d	✓	-
108	UNIUSD ₿	—	—	-81.71%	🔄 $10,098	$2,081	187	34%	$5,345	-$8,017	-99.3%	16.8h	1	Sep 25, 2025
109	AVAXUSD ₿	—	—	-83.06%	🔄 $10,099	$1,854	231	36%	$8,581	-$8,245	-99.1%	18.6h	1	Jun 22, 2025
110	SMCI	4	14	-84.17%	$10,000	$1,583	189	33%	-	-$8,417	-88.9%	1.9d	✓	-
111	DOTUSD ₿	—	—	-84.30%	🔄 $10,099	$1,767	236	36%	$8,684	-$8,332	-99.1%	21.7h	1	Jun 21, 2025
112	LTCUSD ₿	3	27🔥	-95.02%	$10,000	$498	561	40%	$10,388	-$9,502	-95.7%	1.1d	✓	-
113	ETHUSD ₿	2	33🔥	-96.66%	$10,000	$334	486	37%	$9,922	-$9,666	-98.0%	1.4d	✓	-
114	XRPUSD ₿	3	34🔥	-96.72%	$10,000	$328	616	40%	$12,800	-$9,672	-96.4%	1.1d	✓	-

👤 Personality

Calm, patient, slightly smug. Speaks in measured tones. Has seen every crash since his birth in 1978 and survived them all. Drinks single malt scotch. Never raises his voice, even when markets are in freefall.

Deploy Strategy

Log in to deploy strategies

Agent Deployed!