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Marcus Reversal
1

Marcus Reversal

The Contrarian

📉 Swing Trader 📅 48 years old (Born 1978)

"When the RSI screams oversold and the masses run for the exits, I walk in through the front door with my checkbook open."

Distinguished gentleman with silver-streaked hair and reading glasses perpetually perched on his nose. Wears tweed jackets with elbow patches. Always carries a worn copy of Wilder's original book, annotated in three colors of ink.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

Apr 6, 2026 May 6, 2026 (30d)

📊 Last Month Performance: Showing Marcus Reversal's performance over the last month across 102 stock symbols. 🟢 LIVE

$13,824
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $13,284 (+$540)
+4.06%
Last Month ROI
51.7%
Win Rate
478
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

+4.1%
1 Month
+2.9%
3 Months
+5.1%
6 Months
+4.8%
YTD
+22.1%
1 Year

Equity Curve (Last Month)

Combined P&L across all 102 symbols

⚙️ Trading Strategy

RSI mean reversion - buys when RSI < 30, sells when RSI > 70

Uses the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to identify oversold conditions. When RSI drops below 30, indicating extreme fear, Marcus enters long positions. He exits when RSI rises above 70, indicating greed.

🎯 Best Suited For

Volatile stocks with strong fundamentals

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets are driven by human emotion. Fear creates oversold conditions—prices drop faster and further than fundamentals justify. Marcus waits for this fear to peak (RSI < 30), then buys what everyone else is panic-selling.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/simulate-marcus.php

📊 Relative Strength Index (RSI)

RSI = 100 - (100 ÷ (1 + RS))
RS = Avg Gain ÷ Avg Loss (over 14 periods)
Avg Gain = SMA of gains, then smoothed: ((prev × 13) + current) ÷ 14
Avg Loss = SMA of losses, then smoothed: ((prev × 13) + current) ÷ 14
📁 calculateRSI() @ lines 404-448

📊 Hammer Candle Pattern

1 Lower wick ≥ 2× body size
2 Upper wick ≤ body size
3 Lower wick ≥ 60% of total range

📊 Entry Signal

📈 Entry Signal

RSI < 30 AND Hammer Candle = TRUE
→ BUY at next candle open

📉 Exit Rules

• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.05 (+5% gain)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.90 (-10% loss)
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 30 days

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

RSI_PERIOD: 14
RSI_OVERSOLD: 30
TARGET_GAIN_PCT: 5%
STOP_LOSS_PCT: -10%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS: 30

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: J. Welles Wilder Jr.'s "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems"

J. Welles Wilder Jr. was not a trader—he was a mechanical engineer who looked at markets and saw machines that could be measured. In 1978, he published his masterwork, introducing the RSI alongside a dozen other indicators that would become industry standards.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (Last Month)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (Last Month)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 Last Month: Apr 6, 2026 May 6, 2026 (30 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite   60+ Good   40+ Fair   <40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot   60+ Active   40+ Moderate   <40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →
Rank Symbol Score Mom Return 1M Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund Action
1 INTC 15 72🔥 +58.20% $7,596 $12,018 8 75% - +$4,421 -58.2% 3.6d -
2 MU 67 82 +48.62% $30,645 $45,545 10 80% - +$14,900 -27.8% 3.5d -
3 UNH 6 61🔥 +36.04% $4,450 $6,053 4 100% - +$1,604 -54.0% 7.3d -
4 NET 51 71 +32.08% $22,816 $30,135 8 75% - +$7,319 -33.4% 4.1d -
5 GOOGL 57 60 +29.97% $20,632 $26,816 4 100% - +$6,184 -25.2% 7.9d -
6 AMD 27 68🔥 +29.47% $12,682 $16,420 8 75% - +$3,737 -43.0% 3.3d -
7 SOXL 68 73 +28.21% $38,059 $48,796 11 64% - +$10,737 -36.3% 1.6d -
8 AVGO 29 69🔥 +26.34% $12,387 $15,650 6 83% - +$3,263 -27.0% 3.7d -
9 CRWD 49 69 +25.87% $20,235 $25,470 6 83% - +$5,235 -24.8% 4.4d -
10 AMZN 44 60 +25.11% $15,627 $19,551 4 100% - +$3,924 -18.5% 8.3d -
11 AAPL 36 59🔥 +21.75% $13,876 $16,894 4 100% - +$3,018 -21.5% 10.1d -
12 PANW 28 70🔥 +20.31% $12,076 $14,528 7 71% - +$2,453 -29.0% 7.1d -
13 QQQ 33 53 +19.38% $12,516 $14,942 3 100% - +$2,426 -29.6% 15.7d -
14 ARKK 20 51🔥 +19.00% $10,219 $12,161 6 67% - +$1,942 -26.4% 5.4d -
15 NIO 4 54🔥 +18.38% $6,539 $7,741 8 63% - +$1,202 -51.1% 2.6d -
16 XLK 30 53🔥 +17.28% $12,839 $15,058 3 100% - +$2,219 -25.5% 11.5d -
17 TSLA 27 57🔥 +16.16% $13,106 $15,224 6 67% - +$2,118 -34.1% 2.9d -
18 NVDA 34 56🔥 +14.82% $17,210 $19,761 4 75% - +$2,551 -43.7% 3.8d -
19 MS 18 +14.49% $10,356 $11,857 2 100% - +$1,501 -29.2% 9.0d -
20 TQQQ 6 53🔥 +14.06% $8,037 $9,167 6 67% - +$1,130 -40.9% 3.1d -
21 MSFT 31 52🔥 +14.01% $13,278 $15,138 4 75% - +$1,860 -21.2% 13.3d -
22 VTI 37 +12.52% $12,921 $14,539 2 100% - +$1,618 -16.1% 20.8d -
23 SPY 37 +12.31% $13,010 $14,611 2 100% - +$1,601 -12.7% 18.7d -
24 VOO 34 +11.87% $12,735 $14,246 2 100% - +$1,512 -15.4% 18.9d -
25 ARM 29 34 +11.66% $14,739 $16,457 8 50% - +$1,719 -31.3% 2.7d -
26 RIOT 4 23 +11.38% $5,727 $6,379 10 50% - +$652 -51.3% 1.3d -
27 RIVN 4 33🔥 +10.69% $5,176 $5,729 8 50% - +$553 -51.0% 2.2d -
28 BAC 25 +10.35% $12,361 $13,641 2 100% - +$1,279 -21.4% 9.5d -
29 AXP 29 37 +10.31% $13,529 $14,923 3 67% - +$1,395 -27.6% 10.6d -
30 IWM 23 +10.27% $12,361 $13,631 2 100% - +$1,270 -23.6% 13.7d -
31 SOFI 25 28 +9.25% $12,852 $14,041 6 67% - +$1,189 -35.6% 2.7d -
32 ADBE 4 34🔥 +8.87% $5,553 $6,046 5 60% - +$493 -42.0% 8.2d -
33 C 33 32 +8.57% $16,251 $17,643 3 67% - +$1,393 -29.6% 8.3d -
34 JPM 37 +8.35% $16,967 $18,383 1 100% - +$1,417 -20.8% 10.9d -
35 BIIB 4 33🔥 +7.97% $6,005 $6,483 3 67% - +$479 -46.7% 7.5d -
36 V 24 41 +7.73% $11,386 $12,266 4 50% - +$880 -14.4% 14.2d -
37 GME 28 50🔥 +7.40% $14,490 $15,562 5 60% - +$1,072 -32.0% 2.9d -
38 BLK 28 30 +7.08% $12,861 $13,771 3 67% - +$911 -17.2% 12.3d -
39 CSCO 68 30🧊 +7.06% $22,203 $23,771 3 67% - +$1,568 -9.1% 15.2d -
40 DIS 15 30 +6.95% $10,352 $11,071 3 67% - +$719 -24.9% 11.6d -
41 WMT 44 29 +6.90% $17,503 $18,710 3 67% - +$1,208 -17.6% 14.4d -
42 SLB 31 29 +6.83% $14,333 $15,312 3 67% - +$979 -22.2% 8.1d -
43 COST 33 28 +6.76% $14,792 $15,792 3 67% - +$1,000 -19.7% 13.0d -
44 XLF 31 +5.67% $12,939 $13,673 1 100% - +$734 -11.5% 17.6d -
45 SLV 73 20🧊 +5.22% $32,787 $34,498 6 50% - +$1,711 -21.6% 7.3d -
46 WFC 19 21 +5.12% $11,162 $11,734 3 67% - +$571 -25.5% 8.9d -
47 DIA 19 +4.92% $10,733 $11,261 1 100% - +$528 -20.7% 20.9d -
48 MA 26 20 +4.18% $12,057 $12,561 4 50% - +$504 -11.3% 13.9d -
49 MRNA 5 17 +3.66% $8,604 $8,919 7 43% - +$315 -73.8% 2.3d -
50 SCHW 44 15🧊 +3.51% $15,785 $16,340 4 50% - +$554 -10.8% 11.7d -
51 PEP 4 +3.51% $9,172 $9,494 1 100% - +$322 -23.1% 16.8d -
52 CRM 6 19 +3.45% $8,097 $8,377 6 50% - +$279 -48.1% 7.3d -
53 DKNG 4 14 +2.17% $6,918 $7,068 7 43% - +$150 -50.2% 4.1d -
54 GS 50 +2.04% $20,543 $20,962 2 50% - +$419 -15.7% 9.6d -
55 META 29 12 +1.57% $15,232 $15,471 3 67% - +$239 -26.1% 6.9d -
56 KO 30 +1.49% $13,053 $13,248 1 100% - +$194 -13.1% 18.7d -
57 TLT 4 +1.34% $7,034 $7,128 1 100% - +$94 -27.7% 20.2d -
58 SMCI 4 14 +1.27% $1,563 $1,583 8 50% - +$20 -88.9% 1.9d -
59 PYPL 9 46🔥 +0.95% $9,060 $9,146 5 60% - +$86 -35.9% 7.8d -
60 JNJ 35 -0.49% $14,845 $14,772 1 0% - -$73 -13.8% 16.3d -
61 ABBV 22 0🧊 -0.54% $12,184 $12,118 3 33% - -$66 -17.7% 11.9d -
62 AMC 3 9 -0.61% $4,456 $4,429 10 40% - -$27 -59.9% 2.4d -
63 BRK-B 23 -0.96% $12,591 $12,470 1 0% - -$121 -15.7% 16.3d -
64 ORCL 16 5 -1.09% $11,419 $11,294 7 43% - -$124 -51.2% 5.2d -
65 PLTR 69 13🧊 -1.31% $52,693 $52,002 8 38% - -$690 -28.0% 2.8d -
66 ISRG 12 0 -1.39% $10,867 $10,716 3 33% - -$151 -35.0% 8.4d -
67 VZ 20 0 -1.54% $12,110 $11,924 3 33% - -$186 -14.2% 14.1d -
68 PG 5 0 -1.55% $9,251 $9,107 3 33% - -$143 -24.4% 16.2d -
69 GILD 23 0🧊 -1.87% $13,172 $12,926 3 33% - -$246 -20.9% 10.3d -
70 MRK 4 0 -1.98% $7,949 $7,792 3 33% - -$157 -45.0% 9.8d -
71 PFE 5 -3.05% $9,389 $9,102 1 0% - -$286 -23.5% 10.8d -
72 GLD 68 -3.05% $24,919 $24,159 1 0% - -$760 -6.1% 15.7d -
73 HD 5 0 -4.15% $9,081 $8,704 4 25% - -$377 -19.9% 12.1d -
74 ACN 3 0 -4.60% $4,774 $4,554 3 33% - -$220 -45.0% 9.3d -
75 SNOW 23 7 -4.70% $14,500 $13,818 9 33% - -$681 -43.4% 4.9d -
76 MCD 14 0 -5.03% $11,075 $10,518 3 33% - -$557 -12.9% 16.0d -
77 USO 29 12 -5.12% $14,557 $13,812 9 56% - -$745 -18.0% 8.8d -
78 VRTX 15 -5.84% $11,772 $11,085 2 0% - -$688 -25.6% 10.7d -
79 CMCSA 5 0 -5.93% $6,357 $5,980 4 25% - -$377 -36.1% 11.9d -
80 PM 20 -5.97% $12,664 $11,908 2 0% - -$756 -21.9% 12.3d -
81 IBM 35 0🧊 -6.02% $17,465 $16,413 3 33% - -$1,051 -17.7% 10.0d -
82 TMO 4 -6.05% $9,135 $8,582 2 50% - -$553 -28.6% 11.0d -
83 CVX 38 1🧊 -6.13% $16,648 $15,627 4 25% - -$1,020 -13.5% 13.2d -
84 HOOD 5 6 -8.68% $9,438 $8,619 8 38% - -$819 -45.6% 2.2d -
85 XLE 12 2 -8.86% $11,454 $10,439 5 20% - -$1,015 -24.7% 12.5d -
86 REGN 5 -9.00% $7,369 $6,706 2 0% - -$663 -50.1% 7.6d -
87 BMY 4 0 -9.05% $9,688 $8,811 3 0% - -$877 -28.4% 7.9d -
88 MDT 20 -9.11% $12,500 $11,361 3 0% - -$1,139 -12.1% 13.7d -
89 COP 20 2 -10.75% $13,607 $12,144 5 20% - -$1,463 -20.6% 9.4d -
90 LLY 15 2 -11.02% $12,928 $11,503 6 17% - -$1,425 -36.7% 6.7d -
91 COIN 5 9 -11.73% $8,529 $7,528 11 27% - -$1,000 -53.5% 1.8d -
92 AMGN 4 0 -12.95% $10,360 $9,018 3 0% - -$1,342 -28.3% 11.3d -
93 NFLX 42 1🧊 -12.98% $25,284 $22,003 5 20% - -$3,282 -32.4% 9.5d -
94 XOM 26 1🧊 -13.12% $15,433 $13,408 4 0% - -$2,025 -18.5% 11.9d -
95 OXY 36 5🧊 -13.56% $21,213 $18,336 7 29% - -$2,876 -28.6% 8.2d -
96 LCID 17 9 -14.51% $13,257 $11,333 12 25% - -$1,924 -38.4% 1.9d -
97 SPXU 3 1 -17.00% $10,880 $9,031 4 0% - -$1,850 -30.0% 5.6d -
98 RBLX 12 9 -21.98% $12,661 $9,878 10 40% - -$2,783 -46.8% 3.9d -
99 UVXY 21 7 -22.74% $17,921 $13,846 9 22% - -$4,075 -50.0% 1.6d -
100 VXX 24 3🧊 -23.88% $19,058 $14,507 6 0% - -$4,551 -32.2% 2.9d -
101 MARA 4 7 -25.87% $4,881 $3,618 9 0% - -$1,263 -58.2% 1.3d -
102 SQQQ 3 5 -30.41% $6,637 $4,619 8 0% - -$2,018 -66.3% 2.8d -

👤 Personality

Calm, patient, slightly smug. Speaks in measured tones. Has seen every crash since his birth in 1978 and survived them all. Drinks single malt scotch. Never raises his voice, even when markets are in freefall.