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Marcus Reversal
1

Marcus Reversal

The Contrarian

📉 Swing Trader 📅 48 years old (Born 1978)

"When the RSI screams oversold and the masses run for the exits, I walk in through the front door with my checkbook open."

Distinguished gentleman with silver-streaked hair and reading glasses perpetually perched on his nose. Wears tweed jackets with elbow patches. Always carries a worn copy of Wilder's original book, annotated in three colors of ink.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

Jul 1, 2025 Jul 1, 2026 (365d)

📊 Last Year Performance: Showing Marcus Reversal's performance over the last year across 102 stock symbols. 🟢 LIVE

$14,177
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $12,270 (+$1,907)
+15.54%
Last Year ROI
44.2%
Win Rate
4,817
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

-2.5%
1 Month
+6.3%
3 Months
+6.3%
6 Months
+6.3%
YTD
+15.5%
1 Year

Equity Curve (Last Year)

Combined P&L across all 102 symbols

⚙️ Trading Strategy

RSI mean reversion - buys when RSI < 30, sells when RSI > 70

Uses the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to identify oversold conditions. When RSI drops below 30, indicating extreme fear, Marcus enters long positions. He exits when RSI rises above 70, indicating greed.

🎯 Best Suited For

Volatile stocks with strong fundamentals

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets are driven by human emotion. Fear creates oversold conditions—prices drop faster and further than fundamentals justify. Marcus waits for this fear to peak (RSI < 30), then buys what everyone else is panic-selling.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/simulate-marcus.php

📊 Relative Strength Index (RSI)

RSI = 100 - (100 ÷ (1 + RS))
RS = Avg Gain ÷ Avg Loss (over 14 periods)
Avg Gain = SMA of gains, then smoothed: ((prev × 13) + current) ÷ 14
Avg Loss = SMA of losses, then smoothed: ((prev × 13) + current) ÷ 14
📁 calculateRSI() @ lines 404-448

📊 Hammer Candle Pattern

1 Lower wick ≥ 2× body size
2 Upper wick ≤ body size
3 Lower wick ≥ 60% of total range

📊 Entry Signal

📈 Entry Signal

RSI < 30 AND Hammer Candle = TRUE
→ BUY at next candle open

📉 Exit Rules

• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.05 (+5% gain)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.90 (-10% loss)
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 30 days

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

RSI_PERIOD: 14
RSI_OVERSOLD: 30
TARGET_GAIN_PCT: 5%
STOP_LOSS_PCT: -10%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS: 30

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: J. Welles Wilder Jr.'s "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems"

J. Welles Wilder Jr. was not a trader—he was a mechanical engineer who looked at markets and saw machines that could be measured. In 1978, he published his masterwork, introducing the RSI alongside a dozen other indicators that would become industry standards.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (Last Year)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (Last Year)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 Last Year: Jul 1, 2025 Jul 1, 2026 (365 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite   60+ Good   40+ Fair   <40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot   60+ Active   40+ Moderate   <40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →
Rank Symbol Score Mom Return 1Y Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund Action
1 SOXL 72 39🧊 +185.90% $29,493 $84,320 103 53% - +$54,827 -36.3% 1.6d -
2 AMD 43 63 +149.87% $10,949 $27,359 81 52% - +$16,410 -43.0% 3.3d -
3 MU 69 29🧊 +148.49% $21,163 $52,588 91 52% - +$31,425 -27.8% 3.5d -
4 SLV 63 3🧊 +138.44% $12,001 $28,616 63 57% - +$16,614 -21.6% 7.3d -
5 INTC 17 9 +131.87% $5,261 $12,199 86 47% - +$6,938 -58.2% 3.6d -
6 MRNA 5 6 +126.48% $4,022 $9,109 97 47% - +$5,087 -73.8% 2.3d -
7 NET 58 5🧊 +112.10% $15,942 $33,813 71 52% - +$17,871 -33.4% 4.1d -
8 GOOGL 54 0🧊 +111.77% $12,110 $25,646 37 62% - +$13,536 -25.2% 7.9d -
9 CSCO 71 1🧊 +91.11% $15,267 $29,177 28 61% - +$13,910 -9.1% 15.2d -
10 JNJ 41 +68.36% $9,585 $16,138 22 68% - +$6,552 -13.8% 16.3d -
11 OXY 31 3🧊 +59.07% $9,972 $15,862 46 52% - +$5,890 -28.6% 8.2d -
12 SLB 31 1🧊 +58.46% $9,615 $15,236 41 51% - +$5,621 -22.2% 8.1d -
13 C 38 53 +56.58% $12,003 $18,794 39 51% - +$6,791 -29.6% 8.3d -
14 PANW 39 28 +55.96% $12,349 $19,260 48 52% - +$6,911 -29.0% 7.1d -
15 AAPL 37 +53.81% $11,269 $17,333 28 57% - +$6,064 -21.5% 10.1d -
16 TSLA 28 5🧊 +51.94% $10,323 $15,685 65 48% - +$5,362 -34.1% 2.9d -
17 XLK 36 8🧊 +49.71% $11,532 $17,265 26 58% - +$5,733 -25.5% 11.5d -
18 QQQ 34 0🧊 +45.04% $10,765 $15,613 19 74% - +$4,848 -29.6% 15.7d -
19 CRWD 58 2🧊 +43.39% $21,762 $31,205 57 49% - +$9,443 -24.8% 4.4d -
20 NVDA 33 5🧊 +43.18% $13,468 $19,284 51 47% - +$5,816 -43.7% 3.8d -
21 GLD 64 1🧊 +40.30% $15,649 $21,956 27 59% - +$6,307 -6.1% 15.7d -
22 SCHW 48 28 +32.79% $12,791 $16,986 26 58% - +$4,194 -10.8% 11.7d -
23 UVXY 19 18 +31.57% $9,721 $12,790 98 41% - +$3,069 -50.0% 1.6d -
24 ARKK 23 3 +30.18% $10,284 $13,388 54 46% - +$3,104 -26.4% 5.4d -
25 CVX 32 1🧊 +27.97% $11,237 $14,380 30 50% - +$3,143 -13.5% 13.2d -
26 MRK 4 18 +27.47% $6,763 $8,620 35 49% - +$1,858 -45.0% 9.8d -
27 VTI 36 +24.04% $11,952 $14,826 15 67% - +$2,873 -16.1% 20.8d -
28 VOO 37 +23.30% $11,932 $14,712 16 69% - +$2,780 -15.4% 18.9d -
29 IWM 28 +22.94% $11,539 $14,186 22 55% - +$2,647 -23.6% 13.7d -
30 SPY 40 +22.59% $12,314 $15,096 17 65% - +$2,782 -12.7% 18.7d -
31 MS 23 13 +21.65% $10,724 $13,046 36 47% - +$2,322 -29.2% 9.0d -
32 DIA 23 +19.69% $9,890 $11,837 15 67% - +$1,947 -20.7% 20.9d -
33 BAC 29 +18.92% $12,335 $14,669 24 50% - +$2,334 -21.4% 9.5d -
34 GILD 24 +17.93% $11,489 $13,549 34 44% - +$2,060 -20.9% 10.3d -
35 ARM 36 9🧊 +17.69% $17,054 $20,071 85 41% - +$3,017 -31.3% 2.7d -
36 BIIB 4 +16.69% $5,845 $6,821 37 46% - +$976 -46.7% 7.5d -
37 BMY 5 19 +15.94% $8,055 $9,339 39 44% - +$1,284 -28.4% 7.9d -
38 XOM 18 0 +14.25% $9,877 $11,284 31 48% - +$1,407 -18.5% 11.9d -
39 UNH 6 +13.46% $5,781 $6,559 42 48% - +$778 -54.0% 7.3d -
40 PLTR 65 9🧊 +12.53% $37,253 $41,921 78 40% - +$4,668 -28.0% 2.8d -
41 COP 14 1 +12.41% $9,538 $10,722 41 44% - +$1,184 -20.6% 9.4d -
42 WMT 39 +11.01% $15,336 $17,024 26 46% - +$1,688 -17.6% 14.4d -
43 IBM 38 5🧊 +10.66% $15,529 $17,185 44 45% - +$1,655 -17.7% 10.0d -
44 GS 51 2🧊 +10.41% $18,537 $20,467 38 45% - +$1,930 -15.7% 9.6d -
45 VZ 20 1 +10.02% $10,703 $11,775 25 40% - +$1,072 -14.2% 14.1d -
46 VRTX 20 31 +9.69% $11,038 $12,108 34 44% - +$1,070 -25.6% 10.7d -
47 ABBV 25 16 +9.11% $11,767 $12,839 34 44% - +$1,072 -17.7% 11.9d -
48 AMGN 4 +9.03% $8,848 $9,647 25 48% - +$799 -28.3% 11.3d -
49 AMZN 36 6🧊 +8.47% $15,160 $16,444 43 42% - +$1,284 -18.5% 8.3d -
50 JPM 41 27 +8.39% $17,680 $19,164 26 42% - +$1,483 -20.8% 10.9d -
51 LLY 21 8 +8.08% $11,575 $12,510 45 44% - +$935 -36.7% 6.7d -
52 XLF 34 +6.79% $13,137 $14,029 17 53% - +$892 -11.5% 17.6d -
53 SNOW 28 7🧊 +6.66% $16,003 $17,069 68 35% - +$1,066 -43.4% 4.9d -
54 PEP 3 +6.46% $7,855 $8,362 20 40% - +$507 -23.1% 16.8d -
55 SPXU 4 63🔥 +6.17% $8,760 $9,301 45 42% - +$541 -30.0% 5.6d -
56 AXP 28 +5.59% $14,160 $14,952 26 42% - +$792 -27.6% 10.6d -
57 TQQQ 6 7 +5.55% $8,318 $8,780 77 43% - +$462 -40.9% 3.1d -
58 MDT 18 +4.95% $10,829 $11,365 24 46% - +$536 -12.1% 13.7d -
59 MCD 11 +4.49% $9,753 $10,191 20 45% - +$438 -12.9% 16.0d -
60 WFC 24 53🔥 +4.27% $12,697 $13,239 32 44% - +$542 -25.5% 8.9d -
61 XLE 5 +4.25% $9,245 $9,638 28 43% - +$393 -24.7% 12.5d -
62 AVGO 23 6 +3.81% $12,889 $13,380 66 39% - +$491 -27.0% 3.7d -
63 KO 29 0🧊 +1.99% $12,889 $13,146 17 47% - +$257 -13.1% 18.7d -
64 BRK-B 26 +0.56% $13,075 $13,148 18 44% - +$73 -15.7% 16.3d -
65 BLK 26 1🧊 -0.79% $13,063 $12,959 30 43% - -$103 -17.2% 12.3d -
66 GME 23 5 -0.79% $14,026 $13,916 45 38% - -$111 -32.0% 2.9d -
67 USO 20 3 -3.04% $11,884 $11,523 56 43% - -$361 -18.0% 8.8d -
68 TMO 4 -3.75% $8,971 $8,634 27 37% - -$336 -28.6% 11.0d -
69 TLT 4 -4.10% $7,432 $7,127 13 46% - -$305 -27.7% 20.2d -
70 PFE 5 0 -4.38% $8,581 $8,205 25 40% - -$376 -23.5% 10.8d -
71 NIO 4 3 -6.55% $6,490 $6,065 84 38% - -$425 -51.1% 2.6d -
72 V 23 -8.62% $13,671 $12,493 20 30% - -$1,178 -14.4% 14.2d -
73 COST 31 -9.71% $16,765 $15,137 23 35% - -$1,628 -19.7% 13.0d -
74 PG 4 -10.07% $10,083 $9,068 20 35% - -$1,015 -24.4% 16.2d -
75 MSFT 26 2🧊 -10.75% $15,294 $13,650 30 37% - -$1,644 -21.2% 13.3d -
76 MA 25 0🧊 -11.01% $13,941 $12,406 24 33% - -$1,535 -11.3% 13.9d -
77 VXX 21 5 -11.28% $14,968 $13,280 70 37% - -$1,688 -32.2% 2.9d -
78 AMC 4 12 -11.71% $4,609 $4,069 88 40% - -$540 -59.9% 2.4d -
79 META 30 7🧊 -12.63% $17,772 $15,527 41 37% - -$2,245 -26.1% 6.9d -
80 DIS 14 1 -13.07% $12,504 $10,870 26 38% - -$1,634 -24.9% 11.6d -
81 RIVN 4 9 -14.61% $7,130 $6,088 90 39% - -$1,042 -51.0% 2.2d -
82 REGN 5 -15.10% $6,857 $5,821 42 38% - -$1,035 -50.1% 7.6d -
83 LCID 17 7 -15.42% $14,688 $12,423 103 36% - -$2,265 -38.4% 1.9d -
84 HD 5 31🔥 -21.51% $11,288 $8,860 32 31% - -$2,428 -19.9% 12.1d -
85 MARA 5 46🔥 -21.80% $6,207 $4,854 116 37% - -$1,353 -58.2% 1.3d -
86 RIOT 5 13 -22.38% $10,581 $8,213 119 39% - -$2,368 -51.3% 1.3d -
87 CRM 5 3 -23.32% $9,326 $7,151 49 37% - -$2,175 -48.1% 7.3d -
88 PYPL 6 4 -24.89% $11,072 $8,316 41 39% - -$2,756 -35.9% 7.8d -
89 SOFI 25 6 -25.02% $18,832 $14,120 83 37% - -$4,712 -35.6% 2.7d -
90 SQQQ 3 7 -25.94% $5,163 $3,824 83 36% - -$1,339 -66.3% 2.8d -
91 DKNG 4 5 -26.70% $9,518 $6,976 68 35% - -$2,541 -50.2% 4.1d -
92 CMCSA 5 20 -27.82% $8,752 $6,317 33 27% - -$2,435 -36.1% 11.9d -
93 ISRG 4 0 -28.07% $12,669 $9,113 36 25% - -$3,556 -35.0% 8.4d -
94 ORCL 6 7 -28.23% $13,942 $10,006 81 33% - -$3,936 -51.2% 5.2d -
95 PM 21 -31.16% $17,557 $12,086 32 28% - -$5,471 -21.9% 12.3d -
96 NFLX 35 1🧊 -37.07% $30,533 $19,214 33 27% - -$11,318 -32.4% 9.5d -
97 ADBE 4 3 -39.29% $9,126 $5,541 47 28% - -$3,586 -42.0% 8.2d -
98 ACN 3 3 -47.34% $6,882 $3,624 43 23% - -$3,258 -45.0% 9.3d -
99 RBLX 15 12 -47.55% $20,460 $10,731 80 36% - -$9,729 -46.8% 3.9d -
100 HOOD 5 7 -55.35% $17,418 $7,777 92 33% - -$9,641 -45.6% 2.2d -
101 SMCI 4 9 -56.71% $3,484 $1,508 90 31% - -$1,976 -88.9% 1.9d -
102 COIN 5 7 -59.38% $13,336 $5,417 103 31% - -$7,919 -53.5% 1.8d -

👤 Personality

Calm, patient, slightly smug. Speaks in measured tones. Has seen every crash since his birth in 1978 and survived them all. Drinks single malt scotch. Never raises his voice, even when markets are in freefall.