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Marcus Reversal
1

Marcus Reversal

The Contrarian

📉 Swing Trader 📅 48 years old (Born 1978)

"When the RSI screams oversold and the masses run for the exits, I walk in through the front door with my checkbook open."

Distinguished gentleman with silver-streaked hair and reading glasses perpetually perched on his nose. Wears tweed jackets with elbow patches. Always carries a worn copy of Wilder's original book, annotated in three colors of ink.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

Feb 6, 2026 May 6, 2026 (88d)

📊 Last 3 Months Performance: Showing Marcus Reversal's performance over the last 3 months across 102 stock symbols. 🟢 LIVE

$13,913
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $13,515 (+$398)
+2.95%
Last 3 Months ROI
41.7%
Win Rate
1,319
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

+4.1%
1 Month
+2.9%
3 Months
+5.1%
6 Months
+4.8%
YTD
+22.1%
1 Year

Equity Curve (Last 3 Months)

Combined P&L across all 102 symbols

⚙️ Trading Strategy

RSI mean reversion - buys when RSI < 30, sells when RSI > 70

Uses the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to identify oversold conditions. When RSI drops below 30, indicating extreme fear, Marcus enters long positions. He exits when RSI rises above 70, indicating greed.

🎯 Best Suited For

Volatile stocks with strong fundamentals

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets are driven by human emotion. Fear creates oversold conditions—prices drop faster and further than fundamentals justify. Marcus waits for this fear to peak (RSI < 30), then buys what everyone else is panic-selling.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/simulate-marcus.php

📊 Relative Strength Index (RSI)

RSI = 100 - (100 ÷ (1 + RS))
RS = Avg Gain ÷ Avg Loss (over 14 periods)
Avg Gain = SMA of gains, then smoothed: ((prev × 13) + current) ÷ 14
Avg Loss = SMA of losses, then smoothed: ((prev × 13) + current) ÷ 14
📁 calculateRSI() @ lines 404-448

📊 Hammer Candle Pattern

1 Lower wick ≥ 2× body size
2 Upper wick ≤ body size
3 Lower wick ≥ 60% of total range

📊 Entry Signal

📈 Entry Signal

RSI < 30 AND Hammer Candle = TRUE
→ BUY at next candle open

📉 Exit Rules

• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.05 (+5% gain)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.90 (-10% loss)
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 30 days

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

RSI_PERIOD: 14
RSI_OVERSOLD: 30
TARGET_GAIN_PCT: 5%
STOP_LOSS_PCT: -10%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS: 30

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: J. Welles Wilder Jr.'s "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems"

J. Welles Wilder Jr. was not a trader—he was a mechanical engineer who looked at markets and saw machines that could be measured. In 1978, he published his masterwork, introducing the RSI alongside a dozen other indicators that would become industry standards.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (Last 3 Months)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (Last 3 Months)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 Last 3 Months: Feb 6, 2026 May 6, 2026 (88 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite   60+ Good   40+ Fair   <40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot   60+ Active   40+ Moderate   <40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →
Rank Symbol Score Mom Return 3M Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund Action
1 MRNA 5 17 +83.44% $4,862 $8,919 24 67% - +$4,057 -73.8% 2.3d -
2 INTC 15 72🔥 +65.99% $7,240 $12,018 22 55% - +$4,778 -58.2% 3.6d -
3 NET 51 71 +55.08% $19,432 $30,135 21 62% - +$10,703 -33.4% 4.1d -
4 SLV 73 20🧊 +45.17% $23,764 $34,498 18 61% - +$10,734 -21.6% 7.3d -
5 NIO 4 54🔥 +42.89% $5,417 $7,741 19 58% - +$2,323 -51.1% 2.6d -
6 AMD 27 68🔥 +40.35% $11,699 $16,420 22 59% - +$4,721 -43.0% 3.3d -
7 OXY 36 5🧊 +34.74% $13,609 $18,336 16 63% - +$4,728 -28.6% 8.2d -
8 GOOGL 57 60 +34.44% $19,946 $26,816 12 67% - +$6,870 -25.2% 7.9d -
9 UNH 6 61🔥 +30.44% $4,641 $6,053 9 67% - +$1,413 -54.0% 7.3d -
10 ARKK 20 51🔥 +27.13% $9,566 $12,161 14 57% - +$2,595 -26.4% 5.4d -
11 NVDA 34 56🔥 +24.83% $15,830 $19,761 12 58% - +$3,931 -43.7% 3.8d -
12 TSLA 27 57🔥 +24.62% $12,217 $15,224 14 57% - +$3,008 -34.1% 2.9d -
13 AVGO 29 69🔥 +24.08% $12,613 $15,650 17 53% - +$3,037 -27.0% 3.7d -
14 XLK 30 53🔥 +23.09% $12,233 $15,058 7 71% - +$2,825 -25.5% 11.5d -
15 PLTR 69 13🧊 +20.44% $43,177 $52,002 20 50% - +$8,825 -28.0% 2.8d -
16 ARM 29 34 +17.85% $13,965 $16,457 22 45% - +$2,493 -31.3% 2.7d -
17 QQQ 33 53 +17.24% $12,744 $14,942 6 67% - +$2,197 -29.6% 15.7d -
18 AMZN 44 60 +16.44% $16,791 $19,551 13 54% - +$2,760 -18.5% 8.3d -
19 CVX 38 1🧊 +15.66% $13,511 $15,627 10 60% - +$2,116 -13.5% 13.2d -
20 CSCO 68 30🧊 +15.65% $20,554 $23,771 8 63% - +$3,217 -9.1% 15.2d -
21 CRWD 49 69 +15.37% $22,077 $25,470 15 53% - +$3,393 -24.8% 4.4d -
22 RIVN 4 33🔥 +14.13% $5,020 $5,729 22 45% - +$709 -51.0% 2.2d -
23 AAPL 36 59🔥 +12.38% $15,033 $16,894 7 57% - +$1,861 -21.5% 10.1d -
24 C 33 32 +10.78% $15,926 $17,643 14 43% - +$1,717 -29.6% 8.3d -
25 USO 29 12 +8.19% $12,766 $13,812 23 52% - +$1,046 -18.0% 8.8d -
26 PYPL 9 46🔥 +8.18% $8,454 $9,146 11 55% - +$692 -35.9% 7.8d -
27 XOM 26 1🧊 +8.06% $12,408 $13,408 10 50% - +$1,000 -18.5% 11.9d -
28 PANW 28 70🔥 +7.43% $13,523 $14,528 15 53% - +$1,005 -29.0% 7.1d -
29 SLB 31 29 +7.22% $14,281 $15,312 12 50% - +$1,031 -22.2% 8.1d -
30 AXP 29 37 +7.02% $13,944 $14,923 8 50% - +$979 -27.6% 10.6d -
31 GME 28 50🔥 +6.99% $14,545 $15,562 11 45% - +$1,017 -32.0% 2.9d -
32 COP 20 2 +6.87% $11,363 $12,144 12 50% - +$781 -20.6% 9.4d -
33 SCHW 44 15🧊 +6.71% $15,312 $16,340 8 50% - +$1,027 -10.8% 11.7d -
34 NFLX 42 1🧊 +6.56% $20,648 $22,003 12 50% - +$1,355 -32.4% 9.5d -
35 SPY 37 +6.40% $13,732 $14,611 5 60% - +$879 -12.7% 18.7d -
36 VOO 34 +6.08% $13,430 $14,246 5 60% - +$817 -15.4% 18.9d -
37 MU 67 82 +6.08% $42,934 $45,545 27 48% - +$2,610 -27.8% 3.5d -
38 VTI 37 +6.01% $13,715 $14,539 5 60% - +$824 -16.1% 20.8d -
39 DKNG 4 14 +4.77% $6,746 $7,068 20 45% - +$322 -50.2% 4.1d -
40 COST 33 28 +3.82% $15,211 $15,792 6 50% - +$581 -19.7% 13.0d -
41 MS 18 +3.51% $11,455 $11,857 9 44% - +$402 -29.2% 9.0d -
42 BAC 25 +3.31% $13,204 $13,641 6 50% - +$437 -21.4% 9.5d -
43 BLK 28 30 +3.17% $13,348 $13,771 8 50% - +$423 -17.2% 12.3d -
44 CRM 6 19 +2.77% $8,151 $8,377 13 46% - +$226 -48.1% 7.3d -
45 COIN 5 9 +2.76% $7,326 $7,528 29 41% - +$202 -53.5% 1.8d -
46 MSFT 31 52🔥 +2.42% $14,781 $15,138 10 40% - +$358 -21.2% 13.3d -
47 GS 50 +1.63% $20,626 $20,962 10 40% - +$336 -15.7% 9.6d -
48 PEP 4 +1.50% $9,354 $9,494 5 40% - +$140 -23.1% 16.8d -
49 IWM 23 +1.36% $13,448 $13,631 6 50% - +$183 -23.6% 13.7d -
50 JPM 37 +0.83% $18,232 $18,383 4 25% - +$151 -20.8% 10.9d -
51 V 24 41 +0.75% $12,175 $12,266 7 29% - +$91 -14.4% 14.2d -
52 SPXU 3 1 +0.58% $8,979 $9,031 15 47% - +$52 -30.0% 5.6d -
53 UVXY 21 7 -0.28% $13,885 $13,846 29 41% - -$39 -50.0% 1.6d -
54 VZ 20 0 -0.36% $11,967 $11,924 6 33% - -$43 -14.2% 14.1d -
55 ABBV 22 0🧊 -0.61% $12,193 $12,118 10 40% - -$74 -17.7% 11.9d -
56 ORCL 16 5 -0.68% $11,372 $11,294 22 36% - -$77 -51.2% 5.2d -
57 XLE 12 2 -1.07% $10,552 $10,439 10 40% - -$113 -24.7% 12.5d -
58 DIS 15 30 -1.29% $11,216 $11,071 7 43% - -$145 -24.9% 11.6d -
59 AMC 3 9 -1.55% $4,499 $4,429 22 36% - -$70 -59.9% 2.4d -
60 VXX 24 3🧊 -2.15% $14,826 $14,507 23 39% - -$319 -32.2% 2.9d -
61 JNJ 35 -2.22% $15,107 $14,772 3 33% - -$335 -13.8% 16.3d -
62 GLD 68 -2.39% $24,751 $24,159 7 43% - -$592 -6.1% 15.7d -
63 WMT 44 29 -2.59% $19,208 $18,710 7 43% - -$497 -17.6% 14.4d -
64 DIA 19 -3.15% $11,627 $11,261 5 40% - -$366 -20.7% 20.9d -
65 BRK-B 23 -3.34% $12,901 $12,470 5 20% - -$431 -15.7% 16.3d -
66 WFC 19 21 -3.35% $12,140 $11,734 9 44% - -$407 -25.5% 8.9d -
67 IBM 35 0🧊 -3.86% $17,072 $16,413 10 40% - -$659 -17.7% 10.0d -
68 PFE 5 -4.15% $9,496 $9,102 5 40% - -$394 -23.5% 10.8d -
69 BMY 4 0 -4.35% $9,212 $8,811 10 30% - -$401 -28.4% 7.9d -
70 ISRG 12 0 -4.55% $11,227 $10,716 6 33% - -$511 -35.0% 8.4d -
71 KO 30 -5.32% $13,992 $13,248 4 25% - -$744 -13.1% 18.7d -
72 BIIB 4 33🔥 -5.40% $6,853 $6,483 8 38% - -$370 -46.7% 7.5d -
73 TQQQ 6 53🔥 -5.47% $9,697 $9,167 22 41% - -$530 -40.9% 3.1d -
74 TLT 4 -5.82% $7,569 $7,128 4 50% - -$440 -27.7% 20.2d -
75 MRK 4 0 -6.71% $8,352 $7,792 7 29% - -$560 -45.0% 9.8d -
76 XLF 31 -6.83% $14,675 $13,673 6 33% - -$1,002 -11.5% 17.6d -
77 MCD 14 0 -7.99% $11,432 $10,518 5 20% - -$913 -12.9% 16.0d -
78 PG 5 0 -8.18% $9,919 $9,107 6 17% - -$811 -24.4% 16.2d -
79 TMO 4 -10.12% $9,548 $8,582 7 29% - -$966 -28.6% 11.0d -
80 META 29 12 -10.39% $17,265 $15,471 13 31% - -$1,794 -26.1% 6.9d -
81 MA 26 20 -10.63% $14,055 $12,561 9 22% - -$1,494 -11.3% 13.9d -
82 GILD 23 0🧊 -11.57% $14,617 $12,926 10 30% - -$1,691 -20.9% 10.3d -
83 VRTX 15 -12.86% $12,721 $11,085 9 22% - -$1,636 -25.6% 10.7d -
84 SMCI 4 14 -13.73% $1,835 $1,583 24 33% - -$252 -88.9% 1.9d -
85 AMGN 4 0 -14.30% $10,523 $9,018 6 17% - -$1,505 -28.3% 11.3d -
86 SOFI 25 28 -15.21% $16,559 $14,041 19 37% - -$2,519 -35.6% 2.7d -
87 ADBE 4 34🔥 -16.94% $7,279 $6,046 13 31% - -$1,233 -42.0% 8.2d -
88 LLY 15 2 -18.36% $14,090 $11,503 12 17% - -$2,587 -36.7% 6.7d -
89 MDT 20 -18.74% $13,981 $11,361 7 0% - -$2,620 -12.1% 13.7d -
90 ACN 3 0 -18.90% $5,615 $4,554 12 25% - -$1,061 -45.0% 9.3d -
91 SOXL 68 73 -19.31% $60,473 $48,796 31 35% - -$11,677 -36.3% 1.6d -
92 PM 20 -19.31% $14,757 $11,908 8 13% - -$2,850 -21.9% 12.3d -
93 CMCSA 5 0 -19.59% $7,437 $5,980 10 20% - -$1,457 -36.1% 11.9d -
94 REGN 5 -19.94% $8,376 $6,706 10 20% - -$1,670 -50.1% 7.6d -
95 SNOW 23 7 -20.10% $17,295 $13,818 21 29% - -$3,476 -43.4% 4.9d -
96 HD 5 0 -20.24% $10,913 $8,704 11 18% - -$2,209 -19.9% 12.1d -
97 RBLX 12 9 -20.93% $12,493 $9,878 25 40% - -$2,615 -46.8% 3.9d -
98 SQQQ 3 5 -21.46% $5,881 $4,619 22 32% - -$1,262 -66.3% 2.8d -
99 LCID 17 9 -22.63% $14,648 $11,333 27 30% - -$3,315 -38.4% 1.9d -
100 RIOT 4 23 -24.18% $8,413 $6,379 28 29% - -$2,034 -51.3% 1.3d -
101 HOOD 5 6 -25.53% $11,573 $8,619 22 32% - -$2,955 -45.6% 2.2d -
102 MARA 4 7 -43.89% $6,448 $3,618 29 17% - -$2,830 -58.2% 1.3d -

👤 Personality

Calm, patient, slightly smug. Speaks in measured tones. Has seen every crash since his birth in 1978 and survived them all. Drinks single malt scotch. Never raises his voice, even when markets are in freefall.